Hey Guys,

Just after some input on this as I'm new to the concept:

PokerStars Hand begins at 2017/05/04 4:17 pm
Seat 3 (Villain 2) is the dealer
Villain 1 posts ante 10000.00
Hero posts ante 10000.00
Villain 2 posts ante 10000.00
Villain 3 posts ante 10000.00
Villain 4 posts ante 10000.00
Villain 3 posts the small blind 20000.00
Villain 4 posts the big blind 40000.00
Villain 1 folds
Hero raises to 84000.00
Villain 2 folds
Villain 3 folds
Villain 4 raises to 447169.00
Hero calls 363169.00
Flop: [Ts Qc Ac]
Turn: [5c]
River: [Ah]
Action has ended
Villain 4 shows [Kc 9c] Flush, Ace High
Hero shows [Ad 9h] Three of a Kind, Aces
Villain 4 wins 964338.00

So I ran the ICM numbers for myself and here is what it says

Before Hand Eq: $406.32
If win Hand Eq: $467.76
Lose Hand Eq: $340.09
Fold to 3bet Eq: $393.41

Villian Stats V31/P25/3B 27.27

Call ok or should I be folding?

Thanks
Jak

I'm not min opening with anything with a 9BB stack. Just shove or fold and I would shove A9o here.

Would need to know stack sizes, table reads etc but based purely on the ICM numbers you put forward, you gain $74 when you win (vs fold to 3bet) and lose $53. At that point you should be calling when you're 42% against villain's range and you the required equity is against approx. top 16% of hands, so if you think he's shoving that or wider it's +$EV

However without knowing the stack sizes involved (including the players that aren't in the hand), and respective table images it is hard to determine whether this guy could be desperate or ICM abusing, amongst other things. There are situations where he is only shoving his strongest hands here, and there are situations where I think he's shoving more than 16%

I agree with spand42 that shoving is the right play here - a 9bb stack is way to short to be opening for any less, so I wouldn't be looking to get into the above situation

You haven't posted the ICM value of your stack after you just take down the blinds, but looking purely at the +$61 when called and win and -$66 when you lose, you only need to be a narrow favourite (52%) when you open shove and are called. A9 is 52% against top 30% of hands, which combined with the times that you take it down unchallenged is strong enough to justify a shove here

HJ: 652388 (17bb)
Hero(CO) : 1345823 (34bb)
Btn: 301052 (8bb)
SB: 800568 (20bb)
Villian: 407169 (11bb)

I ran numbers for if I take the blind uncontested, my ICM would raise to $412.97

Thanks Nixie for the detailed response.