$180 Man facing Over bet Donk - MTTSNG -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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$180 Man facing Over bet Donk

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10-02-2015 , 08:18 AM

ThePokerBot

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 1,793

No specific reads

PokerStars - $2.28+$0.22|600/1200 Ante 125 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 18,623 (VPIP: 23.81, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 21)
UTG: 23,101 (VPIP: 19.86, PFR: 16.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.62, Hands: 293)
UTG+1: 16,143 (VPIP: 17.02, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
MP: 28,342 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
Hero (CO): 23,640
BTN: 17,385 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 13.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
SB: 15,122 (VPIP: 12.12, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 132)

7 players post ante of 125, SB posts SB 600, BB posts BB 1,200

Pre Flop: (pot: 2,675) Hero has Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2,400, fold, fold, BB calls 1,200

Flop: (6,275, 2 players) T

BB bets 16,098 and is all-in, Hero?

10-02-2015 , 12:07 PM

BlueMonkey

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 68

I would probably have folded pre but as played I would fold the flop. This kind of donk overbet on an uber wet flop is often a strong made hand that's scared of seeing a turn card; probably 2 pair, maybe KQ.
But even if he has KJ you only have 55% equity. If he has a straight and flush draw like A5h or 97h you're 50/50.
So since you're at best in a flip and often crushed and have a decent stack I think its a fold

10-03-2015 , 09:42 AM

Kristofero

banned

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,317

Fold. You're a dog against his range even if he hasn't gotten there yet.

Think about what he flats and what he shoves on that flat. Pretty massive and probably upwards of a 56-58% average favorite v your weak top pair with no chance of improvement. Your 9 makes his K.

10-06-2015 , 02:08 PM

Ace Acumen

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,491

i really dont think this is a good spot to steal pre. U can't afford to lose anymore chips. on the flop is a good situation as to y

10-07-2015 , 11:15 AM

LektorAJ

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 7,826

I like the steal into 2 tight players and one fish.

But yes now fold. Loose-passive players have it when they do this and 21 hands is enough of a sample in this case to begin to know something about how he plays.

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