Hi,

V is 31/27 @ 26 hands (let's asume 10x bigger sample size for the sake of analysis since for me it's kind of nice spot to learn 'proper' postflop analysis).


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.91 Buy-in (15/30 blinds, 4 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37429126

SB: 2,022 (67.4 bb)
BB: 1,512 (50.4 bb)
UTG+2: 1,485 (49.5 bb)
MP1: 1,068 (35.6 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,659 (55.3 bb)
MP3: 1,373 (45.8 bb)
CO: 1,521 (50.7 bb)
BTN: 1,440 (48 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A A
UTG+2 calls 30, MP1 folds, Hero raises to 120, MP3 folds, CO calls 120, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls 90

Flop: (437) 3 Q 5 (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets 327, CO calls 327, UTG+2 folds

Turn: (1,091) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (1,091) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets 327, CO folds


Flop
Of course I was a bit scary he might have already a flush here, but I felt like I have to cbet since I still have a draw to nut flash which I will hit roughly 36% of the time. If I bet 75% flush calls anyway and I can make him fold sth like top pair I want him to stick around with, so I should decide to go with smallish bet to charge those kind of hands. Now, after giving him 27% without top 3.2% which I think he will surely 3bet pre with, he has made flush just 4% of the time so I think It would be ok to charge any pairs etc. (~30%)? Shall bet smaller.


Turn
I guess I should bet here ~50% of the pot here. The question is - shouldn't he expect that from made flushes? Maybe if I just check here he will put me on flush draw with something like AQ / AK and continue with any pairs?

River
Well, it's last chance to get any value so I decide to bet 30% pot with overpair. Now that I think of it maybe I should shove? If he has flush only 4% of the time he can read that as a bluff?


The longer I think about the hand the more confused I am. Any constructive criticism is highly appreciated. #RoastMe ;-)

bet/bet/betallchips
i would bet smth like 300 flop (1.2k left), 450 turn (750left), 750 river

def not checking turn,too many hands to get value,like u sad ~50% not more,we want him to call with Kcx,Qx,pairs 44-TT
if he has set or flopped flush,nothing you can do about that,you gonna win most of the time anyway in long run,you got outs even against these hands.

yeah bet bet bet. you really cant go wrong in this hand as long as you bet 3/4-4/4 pot each street. def no spot to slow down.

Just split the money over 3 streets. Accept that you're getting all-in against a flopped flush on whatever and try to balance that by solid value against the other hands and draws. 1/2 pot three times is fine - 210 then 400 then cca 790 on the river will get you all in when you are this short.

The alternative is to go close to full pot twice, cca 400 then cca 1000 but you want to keep his draws and lower pairs in - which you realise in this hand on the turn and end up checking to see what he does but he just takes the free card.

@Bardaks86 - the effective stack is 1400 on the river - because CO has already put in 120 pre-flop.

i think 3/4-4/4 pot flop turn is better then 1/2 1/2 1/2 cause the draws wont pay off on the river, and you have to pay off when he does hit.

I would be more tempted to go all-in in 2 streets with a weak flush or AA without a club, but we have the nut draw in the A so it's fine to price him in call with his other broadway clubs - if they hit on the river they pay us off, and may also semi-bluff turn - which we call off.

Lol didnt see we had the ace fd. Id still prefer to bet more but its closer now. By betting bigger on flop/turn you get more value from qx which shutdown on 4th flush card.

Betting flop to set up a turn jam and get paid off by their draws/pairs. Don't think we really need to be worried too much about made flushes (and if we are up against one, we still have outs...).

go with bigger sizing on 2 streets with this part of ur range. reason being, he is most likely to pay off both pairs/draws on 2streets regardless of sizing, and on the river he obv folds missed draws.