Do we think this look bluffy enough to call?

I have installed Jivaro (thanks for the tip Will). Villain is 29/21 with AFq of 44 over 31 hands - much of that as chip leader.

I'm checking the flop. Betting is probably profitable. But I don't like to bluff w this hand.
If you do bet it and if you bet it small than you can expect to get in this kind of spots.

Don't see the reason to put anymore money in the pot once he calls the flop. He also called from SB. His range should be quite strong.

Yeah, it's instantly profitable if it gets through at least 26 percent of the time and microstakes players just can't play back as wide as 74%.

It's true that you get into spots like this but I would also bet 35% with a set of 8s or 9s and they sometimes spew off into me when I do that.

BTW this is 7-handed at the final table.

Villain is pretty polarised by the river. I would lean more on his bet being a sign of making up for lost value after turn checks through, maybe a set or two pair.
Tempting to call in case it is a busted draw but you are crippled if wrong and still have a playable stack if you fold. Depends on villain obvs but I think I find the fold button.

As played I called and he had QJo

Your numbers seem about right, but how your cbetting and checking range look like if you cbet 44?

I mean 44 is hand with 2 outs vs any reasonable hand what villain continue. You can't get much fewer outs then that.
I am not saying it wrong play, i am just saying if you cbet here 44 you probably cbet close 100% and are easy exploitable (what would not be that terrible in microstakes anyway).

Just something to think about.

i agree he is polarised on river like hell but since he doesnt have 88 99 as he would 3b them pf like always from sb,and he doesnt have any twopair cuz there are only 2 combos of 89s left. and also i dont belive he will ever bet some like 67 T9 type of hand(if he even has it in range) for thin value i would call it most of the time

^ He might bet some of those hands but probably not bomb 1.3x pot like this time. After hardly any money has gone in on the flop then the wet board on the turn checks through we're both pretty capped here. He looks like he doesn't want a call, although he could be level ahead of me on that.

@kamitis. Yeah my range is really wide here. The thing is when we are this wide that he has to call 74 percent himself then we are actually getting value against his unpaired hands with our 44. I am still working all this out myself though so maybe that's the wrong way to look at it.

that was my point,i dont see what type of hand is he value betting with that sizing.usually when those fish/semifish players bets full pot that is for v,and when they overbet/overshove it its either some pretty weak hand transformed to bluff or complete air.

What line are you folding too here if you think that is bluffy?

Open pre, 3bet all in = fold,
Do you flat a 3bet IP with 44?

x flop, c turn? or fold turn.

weird hand but nice of you to share it haha

If the line is different we are no longer "here" we are somewhere else. The correct way to think about it is 'what hands do we get "here" with and what are we doing with it all and is that balanced and how can Villain play against it?'

I am folding tons of air that I get here with. Stuff like villain's actual hand. That's why we can expect him to be wide. 44 is probably towards the bottom of my calling range which is why I posted the hand in the first place. Maybe I should be calling an even wider range here though.

^ I would be interested to hear if anybody else agrees or disagrees with me about the first paragraph.

bet flop. Also bet turn small, 1/4 pot or less. That's the best line by far