Hey guys. 21 to go. What do you think of this line? After flop action i'm pretty confident with him having AQ-QQ-KK-AA. His 3bet size on flop gives me odds(including implied odds) to call even with a single 3 or 4 that I might have decided to reraise to get him off AK or even TT. Same with his turn sizing. So I think it's not crazy to think that I have a decent ammount of 3x/4x combos on the river, not necesarilly sets or two pair from flop (combos of which are pretty screwed by a river card). I might have KK and AA here sometimes which i decided to slowplay also. Of course he's not folding QQ and I don't think he would fold AA because that's second best card he has in that spot. I assumed he would be folding KK and AQ here which is more than 50% of the combos and that is more than i need to turn profit on this bluff. Not mentioning it's his tournament life. Is this reasoning somewhat correct or did I just spazz there? Didn't have any special read on this guy but I didn't see him do any stupid things so I gave him credit of trust that he's not dumb. (which was incorrect given his actual hand and the speed he called me with, but let's assume thinking opponent)
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.91 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 50 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
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#37296725
MP2: 1,709 (4.3 bb)
MP3: 10,029 (25.1 bb)
CO: 9,888 (24.7 bb)
BTN: 12,058 (30.1 bb)
SB: 19,006 (47.5 bb)
Hero (BB): 22,400 (56 bb)
UTG+2: 17,866 (44.7 bb)
MP1: 11,001 (27.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 6
J
UTG+2 raises to 800, 6 folds, Hero calls 400
Flop: (2,200) 4
3
Q
(2 players)
Hero checks,
UTG+2 bets 800,
Hero raises to 2,700,
UTG+2 raises to 4,600, Hero calls 1,900
Turn: (11,400) 3
(2 players)
Hero checks,
UTG+2 bets 2,400, Hero calls 2,400
River: (16,200) 4
(2 players)
Hero bets 14,550 and is all-in