I loove rumors. one of my fav. new ones is that kids who live in an apartment, drive a leased bmw i series and cant handle the swings of the 20-40 have been making 200/hr+ in the 10-20 for the last 3 years (ie a cool million in tghe bank llloooollllzzz)

lol commerce1020NLrumoraments

how'd u know i had my 06 750 repo'd during a busto stint in late 07 ?lol

lol its won not juan and he is absurdly terrible at poker and should never be used as an example of whats possible.

so according to onepac won made 1,000,000 from the 20/40 game?lol

juan / won, whatever. i never commented on his skill level, just noting that according to won and every other 20/40 player at commerrce he went on a 12mo ~750k heater, and heater is understatment. The guy ran better than god. I will say this, hes better at playing outta stuckville than anyone, hell be stuck 10k and sit there 40 hours till +++.

WHo are the big 20/40 winners now or over the last 12 mos? Sid and Ryan are 2 of top 5 for sure. Neither is doin $400/hr in that game over the last year.

Whatever argument is dead at this point as Nickrivers is the only one left with fantasy win rates

you are so ******ed i wish i knew who u were

I'm afraid the argument is dead on account of everyone in the thread except FWF having poor reading comprehension.

hey guys,

one quick question/thought:


WHO THE *** CARES???

nick rivers you don't need to tell delecto that he's not good at poker and is a grinding nit, he knows it deep down to be true no matter what ego-nonsense he types here

Hey Rek I'm thinking of sporting this look for WSOP 2009. You think a nit like me can make $500/hr like youzzz crazzzzy ballazzz?!?!?

Delecto, the face make up alone is worth 350 hr at the wsop cash games imo....

lol

strange thing to waste a wish on...unhealthy obsession?

just for the record, i dont give a fuq who you are.

yes but be sure not to slouch in your chair like usual, total action killer

delecto is your name brandon?

People who aren't good enough to beat $2/$4 online can beat $10/$20 live. If you want to figure out how good someone is at poker, look at how much money they're making not the stakes they're playing. Since you can get 10 times as many hands per hour online, you make as much money beating $1/$2 for XBB/100 online as you do beating 10/20 for XBB/100 live. So it stands to reason that beating $1/$2 online or $10/$20 live are comparably difficult tasks. If this were not the case, there would be no reason for the live $10/$20 players not to switch to a smaller game online and make more money.

a couple of thoughts. too many live players are jerks.

Limon... i agree for the most part but have a question for you. at a 10/20 game, deep stacked, how much do you suppose the best player could make an hour playing his A game? i think it is significantly more than $200 an hour.

please elaborate.

There are a lot of successful online 1/2 grinders who are under 21. So many, in fact, that the average age of the online 1/2 grinder may even be under 21. Those guys would generally be unable to gamble in live setting in the United States, even if they could make more at 10/20 live (which most of them probably could).

maybe. its hard to say because half the players at every table at commerce have 100bb or less.

also all the regs buy in deep so if you see a table where everyone is deep its probably a bunch of regs and not a great table. alot of commerce regs become transfixed on one bad player (like jack haley) and build horrible tables around them while the other tables are much better because many of the aggressive/deep regs are out of the way.

I am curious to hear from any of the long-term live pros more details about bad streaks. I have been a live pro at 5/10 for the past 1.5 years playing 20 hrs/wk and have a very solid winrate. Seems like it is possible to have a good or bad streak last 6 months. Would it really be possible for me to break even for a year? It's all about the average so streaks don't really matter, but it's nice to have an idea of how long I can go before I should start to worry that the games are getting too tough or something else is wrong.

Well, I will sure say that this post has far exceeded my expectations when I first put it up. The reason I was interested in win rates, etc, is because I just recently began playing NL cash games. While I don't play poker as a "professional", I have logged lots of hours playing live 100/200 limit holdem. I have only recently begun playing 10/20 NL cash, more as an experiment than anything else. I've never played at any other NL stakes other than 10/20. I don't consider myself a NL cash expert by any means, though I'm a pretty solid NL tournament player. Anyway, here are my observations so far:

The average $10/$20 live cash players are on par with the $1/$2 internet players (based on my limited experience in both).

Playing 100/200 limit holdem as an "expert player" is probably slightly less profitable than playing 10/20 NL cash as a "good but not great" player.

There is about 50% less variance playing 10/20 NL cash as opposed to 100/200 limit.


Granted, I've only played 32 sessions of 4 hours each at NL, so I KNOW MY SAMPLE SIZE IS NOT STATISTICALLY VALID. Therefore, please limit the flames based soley on that. But here are my stats so far. I'm presenting them only for the purpose for comments on:
1. standard deviation - does this seem high, low, or about what you would expect based on the win rate achieved?
2. # of winning sessions vs losing sessions - I would think I'm on the low side, i.e., great players win more than 62.5% of their sessions.
3. hands per hour - this seems to be what I've actually achieved on several random counts, but seems to be high (i.e., not sustainable long term) based on comments in this thread.
4. $ won per seesion vs. lost per session - should you expect your average win to be significantly bigger than your average loss, or is it only about the frequencies of wins vs losses?



# of sessions 32

ave win(loss) per session $550

ave hours played per session 4

ave Big Blinds earned per hour 6.88

ave $ per hour earned $137.50

Standard Deviation $2763

# of winning sessions 20
# of losing sessions 12

total $'s won $43,700
total $'s lost ($26,100)

ave $'s won per winning session $2,185.00
ave $'s lost per losing session ($2,175.00)


hours played 128
hands/hour 35
hands played 4,480
$won/hand $3.93
Big Blinds won/100 hands (divide by two to get ptbb/100) 19.64

You say there is half as much variance in 10/20 NL as 100/200 limit. Your standard deviation in 10/20 NL is $2763 (per hour?), and variance is the square of standard deviation, so am I correct in assuming that your standard deviation in a 100/200 limit game is ~SQRT(2 x 2763^2) = $3907? I have always been curious how these compare for live play.

Your numbers look fairly normal. I think 35 hands/hour is probably ambitious for long-term play, but it varies widely by game. The baseline hands/hour in a NL cash game is somewhere between 20 and 25. The presence of a shuffle machine probably adds about 5 hands/hour, and the competence of the dealer can make an appreciable difference. For instance, I find the average Bellagio dealer to be far more competent than the average Commerce or WSOP dealer. I suspect this translates to maybe 2-3 more hands/hour on average. So, going by those quick and dirty numbers, it would seem that 35 hands/hour is just out of reach. If you're routinely getting that many hands, it probably means you're playing in bad games, because a nitty game or one full of fast-thinking internet pros would move a little faster than a game full of loose limpers/callers and/or drunks who are trying to see every flop.

My condolences go out to the live grinders... Sounds like a lot of **** to deal with for $200/hr at best.

I'm measuring stddev in terms of "sessions", which for me are 4 hours each. My actual stddev for 100/200 limit holdem sessions (also 4 hour blocks) is $4332. So, in other words, 2 times out of 3 I win or lose less than $4332 when playing 100/200 limit, vs 2 times out of 3 winning or losing less than $2763 when playing 10/20 NL, but acheiving a higher average hourly earn playing NL.

Welcome to NL.