5/5 NL

Hero in CO with KQsd ($675)

1 limp
Hero raises to $25
Button ($800), SB, BB, limper call

Flop ($125):
KJ8ccx

Checks to hero who bets $105
Button tank jams for $775
Folds back to hero
Hero ???

Button is a middle aged woman who has been involved in several pots in the three hours I've played thus far. She has a strange tendency to want to overbet on various streets. For example, a pot will be $150 and she will bet $350 on the next street.

Most of the times opponents against her have folded, but there was one hand where she 3bet on the river vs. another opponent to 3x his raise, got called and she mucked her hand.

This hand was a few hands preceding the one mentioned above so she may be on tilt. The luxury of this hand is that I don't have to worry about anyone acting behind, but the pot did go multiway from the start of the hand, so ranges can be fairly wide.

Is this a fold or is there some reasoning for a call here against this particular player type and board texture?

Ssems like a sigh fold here. Try and talk her into showing her hand and take note for next time.

You're crushed often and you are ~flipping vs a lot of her semi bluffs so she needs a bunch of random spazz. I doubt it's there.

Say something like "well that didn't work" and muck with an embarrassed grin.

Why such a big flop bet?

Makes her overbet harder to fold against. I'd probably call based on how spazzy she sounds

maybe she realizes men usually never think women bluff and is using that

Even if we give villain a wide range where she shoves all flush draws, worse kings, and a few other weak semi-bluffs hero is extremely optimistically something like a 53% favorite.

If we use a tighter range with something like kj, k8, aqss, qtss, t9ss, 88 hero only has 35.5%. But if we add j8 and more spade combos etc. equity will improve

We only need 40%.

So with a read she is out of line, we can still call, but its quite thin or break-even - most spade combo draws are equity favorite.

If you can underweight AK/JJ in her pre-flop calling range, along with the brief history, you can make a case for calling. We are blocking QT, but unlocking T9/club draws.

That said, raising an >80% PSB is nasty, so leaning toward a fold unless I have better info on the AK/JJ part of her range.

Most people who wildly over bet on the flop want a fold. I go with Mike Caro's advice that if a villain wants you do something, disappoint them. I'm calling.

^^^ Seems to me like OP wildly overbet flop hoping everyone would fold so he could scoop up the ez monies uncontested and villain disappointed him by overbet jamming. Maybe she's read Caro's book as well.

I am a middle-aged woman and I almost never over-bet, but if I do, I either have a huge draw or I can beat KQ here. However, this is not me, so who knows? I live to see another flop.

Also agree that H's flop bet is too big, and pre might be a little small, but only by $5/$10 or so.

From Ed Miller's "Don't Sweat the Weird Stuff":

This

I don't think she has many sets, but she has all the two pair combos, and of course draws but I wouldn't wanna go broke hoping and praying she's on a draw (and misses).

I'd fold, but I'd also bet $40 otf. You can probably go $30-$35 pre as well.

By the way, that's not a ridiculous raise size... That's the only raise size I would use given the SPR ott if we do a 3-4x size

Thanks for the suggestions everyone. Breaking down the hand again I did have some concerns with my flop bet, but not necessarily my pre-flop raise. My standard open is usually $20 and adding an additional blind for each limper or more depending on my position.

The unfortunate/fortunate part of the game, however you want to look at it, is that the table was open limping like hell and open raises were being called regardless of the sizing. For example, it is not uncommon to see a multiway limped pot go 5-6 ways and even when I did open raise the pot will still be going 3-5 ways.

So getting called with KQo in a 5 way pot isn't the most ideal, but opponents would usually show up with garbage. For example, middle pair and a weak ace would most likely be the winner in these kinds of pots.

As played in this hand when it gets checked around to me I feel like it's mandatory to fire on the flop, but the debate comes to sizing. I do understand it is on the larger side and I can potentially own myself if I were to still get 2-3 callers in the pot, but my thought process at the time was to give draws a terrible price and go with the hand as played given how many weak holdings my opponents would typically have.

When the button reraises all in it is definitely a weird line that I mentioned before, but this time she piled everything in, which was also odd. I would imagine she would want to get value for all of her two pair + hands and call with her stronger draws. Of course, this is live poker so I can't pinpoint what everyone is thinking, but the line just seemed really off + she was steaming from that previous hand.

In the end I called it off, the board ran out clean and she showed QQ. So after looking at her hand she must've had the thought process of something like "Eff it I have a premium and I don't think you have Kx." This was an extremely high variance call, but given that it's California and the table dynamics were as such I didn't mind riding the variance wave.

Why so less on such a wet flop and so many players? Is it so that we can get off with a raise?

She must have been really steaming!

I've said this before, but one of the most reliable places I see people blast off/punt is when they have a big pocket pair and there's an overcard on the flop. If it were KQ8 and she had middle pair she'd never do this, but for some reason when it's a pretty preflop hand I think some entitlement tilt can sneak in.

This board too wet for me to fold TP, especially with her overbetting tendencies and one showdown bluff.

Get more action from worse hands/keep them wide, there are a lot of turn cards that just suck and I don't want to build a huge pot in the case of one of those turning, we can induce a spazz are all reasons

Do you continue betting small if the turn is a non scary card?

Bet small or X flop would be standard.

No. I would go big.