normally i'd say "eh pretty easy to goad katz into being a douche" but this story sounds epic.....please either re-tell it or point us somewhere where we can hear/read it.

top 5 fav movies?

were you ever approached by any gambling syndicates or sports books to work for them?

what kind of compensation do the top handicappers get from the books?

By the way this is Danny Ashman (clowntown of UB fame).

I think Ashman was the guy who made this hilarious, you kind of have to know Ashman to really appreciate it, but basically Aaron Katz called ~30% of his stack on a 3 bet with 5h 4h vs Nenad. Nenad had two Aces with the Ace of hearts and all the money went in on a 3 flush board. Aaron Katz is kind of similar to Alan Kessler in that he generally feels like he is going to lose in these situations and is always bemoaning his bad luck.

They ran it one time and Nenad won, Katz got really steamed and stormed out of the room to cool off. Ashman was sitting next to Aaron at the time and was kind of annoying Aaron most of the night by just being friendly. At the time Ashman was such a lovable loser so he was the perfect foil.

I talked everyone into paying Ashman some insignificant amount of money (not sure how much maybe 1k total) to tell Aaron the following after Aaron got back and had cooled off -

"You know Aaron I was giving that hand some thought and although you did get unlucky i think where you played the hand bad was when you called off 30% of your stack off preflop with 5 high. That can't be a winning play"

(we first had to assure Ashman that Nenad would step in and not let Aaron punch him).

Aaron came back, was talking about how lucky Nenad was and then Aaron delivered the line. He did so perfectly stammering and stuttering probably because he thought Aaron was going to punch him.

Aaron was actually a pretty good sport, you could tell he was just beat at the time and all he could say was, "are you trying to steam me up or get hurt kid?"

Bob, I'm assuming you think the Cavs will win the title. What's the proper line for # of games they'll do it in?

Count of Monte Cristo
Rushmore
Big Lebowski
The Vanishing (dutch version)
O Brother Where Art Thou
Boogie Nights

im surprised you included counte of monte cristo in movies and not books, the book is so amazing i'd def rec everyone read it.

also, i thought you were referring to ashton but its still a great story....if you really wanna tilt katz find some way to subtly mention "going north" while crossbooking

more NBA:

IrishHand made this post earlier this year when asked to name his dream team for one season without regard to traditional box score positions or whatever. This came from discussion of the need for small players on the floor, and if point guards do more harm than good on teams with poor to average points. (Say Toronto, where Hedo could easily do the basic PG duties of Calderon or Jack.


I found this interesting. Your thoughts? Your list?

I think its pretty close to a toss up between them and Orlando.

I have no idea what the proper line would be for # of games. I'd say

4 is most likely in the 1st round
5 is most likely in the 2nd round
7 is most likely in the conference Finals
and 6 is most likely in the Finals.

So I'd probably make the line around 22 or so.

There is a fantasy GM draft going on in Sporting Events that includes contracts at http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/46...rounds-759482/

1. How much LBJ worth in an uncapped market? I think NY pays him 70m if they could.

Is DeJuan Blair an undersized 5 or a natural 4?

Is he the most valuable rebounder in the league? Basketball Reference has him at 4.8 oreb per 36min

Can you talk about having to sweat your huge bet, specifically Blazers/Lakers series (and game 7)? We're you ready to throw in the towel when the 4th quarter began?

Could you elaborate on what exactly you do or link to somewhere that describes it?

So you think basketball is still beatable for 8-9% ROI?

Do you think there is any game rigging going on?

What sport do you think would be the easiest to beat sportsbetting?

I think basketball is still beatable by me for 8-9% ROI per year. There is a big difference between beatable by someone who has probably spent upwards of 3m on research and development and 10 years experience vs "beatable".

I really don't know if there is any game rigging, probably not.

The easiest sports to beat would be the smaller sports like Arena Football and WNBA basketball. These are extremely beatable as are props unfortunately the market is quite fragile / small for these sports.

Really enjoyable reading this well, thanks.

I'm not sure how networked you are with other sharp sportsbettors who you don't actually collaborate with, but do you know anyone you would regard as highly successful in sports betting who has close to zero fan interest in sports? (E.g. had never watched a televised game in his life before getting into betting.)

what do you think fair odds would be for lakers or cleveland to win the championship vs the field?

Thanks for the well.

Thoughts on Ed Stefanski as a GM?

Will any team without Lebron or Dwight win a title in the next 5-7 years (besides this years lakers maybe)?

How much variance is there in a 7 game series between roughly equal teams when compared to a single game?

why is the corner 3 so important? is shooting it an indicator of an overall great gameplan, or is it just a really effective shot? seems counterintuitive to me.

thanks for doing this, interesting stuff.

Corner 3 is 22 feet, almost 2 feet closer than top of key 3

(In NCAA the 3 is equal distance from top and corners, 20.75 feet)

can you explain why you think Lebron is a better basketball player than Kobe? It's clear he's younger, more valuable in general, much more athletic, etc. but he's not nearly as skilled or experienced as Kobe ainec.

Lebron is just a more efficient basketball player than Kobe. His size advantage over Kobe is a v valuable asset, plus Kobe is in his 14th year and declining. Kobe's experience just makes the gap wider at this point in favor of Lebron. And that's coming from a huge Lakers/Kobe fan.


*- In Kobe's defense, his longevity has been impressive. He's not Jordan or Lebron, those two are just better, but he has averaged 28/5/5 with a TS of 56% over the last 12 years, which is pretty damn beastly.

haha i didn't know you knew thebruiser. reading that line to myself in his voice was pretty funny.

Pretend you've never heard of either player and just look at their individual box score stats over this season and their careers.

LBJ scores more at a more efficient rate, rebounds more, assists more, blocks more shots and is a much better defender. He is also way younger and is getting paid 17.4 vs Kobe's 25m next year.

Lebron's best teammate ever is Anderson Varejao whereas Kobe had mortal lock Hall-of-Famer all-time-great Shaq in his prime.

I don't know if u missed my question on near the middle of page 1 or not.

Also, forgive my ignorance but could you explain or someone link me to the all in bet on the Lakers? Was this a 70k bet before the season started that they would win it all? If so what were the odds?

Thanks

First off, thanks a lot for doing this well, very entertaining and insightful. Got a few bball questions:

-Can you elaborate on why the Lakers are so overrated this year? Specifically what makes them so much worse this year than last year? Is it just the loss of Ariza and lack of chemistry or is it just aging and injury or just some combo of a buncha stuff?

-In recent memory, what is the most wrong you have been about a basketball prediction/bet and what in your mind caused this to happen?

-How do you treat rookies in your system? Do you do research into how they performed in college/Europe or do you have some other way of predicting their performance?

-Do you think you would make a better head coach or GM?

you forgot kobes clutchness

How much was situational handicapping a factor with your database for betting on the NBA?

Broad question, but to narrow it down, were there certain situations where maybe your numbers said one thing but the team was playing their 4th game in 5 nights. back 2 back? back 2 back after an overtime game. Maybe playing in Houston one night and having to play in high altitude Denver the next night? Or say fading a road dog who won straight up the night before?

Would any of these factors keep you off a play your numbers favored? Or would they make a play stronger for you? Is there any other similar situations you found profitable?

Thanks for the well. Good read.