awesome well - thank you very much and gl finding the perfect job in the NBA

I think for most of us who aren't doing charting, you have the following options (the sample sizes are going to be really small if you're trying to do this with a star):

1. Adj +/- or comparing OE and DE when they're on and off the floor
2. Looking at how shot distribution changes when they're on and off the floor
3. Combination of On Court/Off Court + Other players AST%'s and Shooting percentages

I did some quick and dirty work calculating efficiency differentials with combos of guys on the floor and off the floor...mostly because I thought Gasol and Bryant were individually good but the true strength of the Lakers was how Kobe and Pau compliment each other.

I disagree with that...here's an example: This year's Super Bowl where all the smart quants, Accuscore, etc predicted the game as either a flip or the Colts as slightly better - 52% Colts 48% Saints, etc.

At almost every book, the early movement was towards the Colts. You could get 3.5-1 on a Saints moneyline bet. You could have made a killing fading the big money...

"Peyton Manning factor this, Peyton Manning factor that". All the passing stats, offensive stats for the Colts already factor in Peyton Manning! There's no added bonus because he's Peyton Manning and "clutch".

I bet tons of games this year on the other side of the line movement (we were on the right side the majority of games), and tried to figure out why we were on a different side than everyone else....eventually coming to the conclusion that I don't care what the line movement thinks and we're going to bet the side that our program thinks will win.

This is because the Pinny closing line isn't as solid as royalsfan apparantly thinks it is (hence my reply to his post that it made me give a patronizing chuckle - I wasn't going to explain myself, but since you brought it up, I figured I would expand a bit).

If you can adeptly handicap games yourself you need not worry as much about the closing line. Worrying about the closing line isn't the central issue for handicap bettors, rather more important for sports bettors who rely upon trends, good numbers, arbitrage opportunities, etc. to make a living. These are generally guys with little expertise in actual handicapping of the sports they bet, but rather extreme expertise in mathematics and statistics. They are purely trying to take advantage of an inefficient market. It seems to me that a large % of the people who make a significant income from betting sports are these "math" bettors, but the most successful are those who can handicap more precisely than the market (and who obviously can correctly employ the mathematics as well).

Bob mentioned that while he thought that lines in individual NBA playoff games were too tight to be bettable, he did think that series lines were incorrectly adjusted from game to game.

Does anybody have a theory as to why this might be so?

how beatable is a site like matchbook.com where you don't have to fade the 10% vig?

thanks for this, it's been a really interesting and entertaining read so far

you mentioned that you had some issues with getting behind in math while you were in school. can you think of any specific hurdles that caused for you related to gambling and how you overcame them? was your understanding of the concepts and theories behind the math and interest in the sport always enough to keep your confidence, or did the lack of quantitative assurance ever shake you up or turn you gun-shy?

what would you recommend to someone with a similar history?

Just to be accurate, the vig. on a -110 bet is not 10%, it is 4.55%.

If GMs are emailing you, wouldn't it be relatively easy to connect with one of them to get the job you want in the NBA?

He wants to be a GM, ldo.

ELLA !! PATRIDA !!

Congrats on your past success and hope it continues in a big way

Hey Bob,
Thanks for doing this, do you still follow the CFL and ever thought about buying a CFL team?

Seriously can we just lock this thread? I have enjoyed it a ton but it just seems like it's gonna forever be at the top of the forum getting bumped with questions which will never see an answer.

Late to the party, but just wanted to say great thread and appreciate the time contributed to it.

first step would be assistant GM.

Perhaps I missed this somewhere, but can someone explain to me why he stopped betting the NBA? $3m invested on research and great ROI numbers seems like a lot to just walk away from.

Was a desire to work in an NBA front office the only reason given?

Yea he has made enough money for now, so he has stopped betting for now in pursuit of the career of his dreams. It is not like he gave all of his research/time away, he can return to betting at any point.

I wonder if any of his co-researchers, partners, etc. are still doing anything with it currently or if his involvement is required to tie everything together and make it click.

No idea how much he (they) has already won, but after making that type of commitment/investment I think I would do it until something in the market changed so that I no longer could.

It is all quite fascinating.

BPS was so awesome to listen to when you were hosting w scott huff.

Bob
I have started a handicapping business and was interested on how you got your clients? Other then showing people how you make consistent picks, what has helped build your business?

he never went tout if thats what youre implying

I believe this was asked and answered already. I don't remember the answer but if u just look for his responses (1st 2 pages iirc) u should see it.

Ever got caught harboring porn by your mom?

how good is melo in your opinion?

im a big hawks fan as you can see, but would you say they have basically 0% chance of winning a championship in the coming years w/o a true superstar? like if you're running the hawks what can u possibly do bc jj/smoove/horford/crawford core isnt gonna get u past lebron and superman

What is handicapping ? lol sorry for being stupid