So I assumed you meant 6:5 or +120 here. This implies that you should bet 27.27% of your total worth (not necessarily current net worth) on it. Your answer then basically says you've earned about half of your total worth. Do you think that's true? Or are you being more conservative than Kelly and you think you've got a lot more in you? Or does it reflect some amount of not caring as much about losing half your money since the gain would reflect some larger life change than the loss? Or did you just wing it and answer?

Also, do you use R for everything or do you use something else with bindings to R? I ask because you mentioned Python/Django earlier.

Good luck in the tourney.

I don't think 60% is +120. LDO

who are you? am i a complete lifedonk for not knowing who you are?

Lol. I noobed it up with those damn % odds. +150.

What a ******ed question. Use google, read the thread, hire a private detective. There are tons of ways you can figure this out

I don't know too much about you bob but from reading your analytical responses in this well (which I assume isn't anywhere near what you really know) I don't think you'd have any problem landing with a franchise if you wanted to, especially if you're fairly open wrt location. Being able to ask and answer the questions that no one has (publicly) thought of is likely the greatest quality teams are looking for in all sports, especially one in it's statistical infancy like basketball.

Having money in the bank certainly doesn't hurt when it comes to these things as well.

Thanks for the well and best of luck to you.

I have offered the Royalfan challenge on many forums. It is fitting to offer it to him. The stipulations are these. Anywhere from 20-50k. You can bet anywhere from 1-5 units on an event. You make a real play at the particular book from 10 bucks to 50 bucks.(any reputable books can be used) Any type of play works as it is on the record just a min risk of one unit and a max win of 5. (the plays are sent to an agreed upont party when made) Takes 200 units profit to win over 365 days. We both clear that it is a push. Neither do it is a tie. One does one doesn't it is a winner. If you can make 9 percent ROI it is a no brainer. You do that you easily get there. I am skeptical. And willing to risk 50k to find out and if it needs to be more that works too. I could find backers up to a million most likely. Some people that are members here will take me for a whole lot more it makes it worth your time. The main reason for this is because I want to work in a front office and have no connections. And want an interview when you get hooked up. I admired you from watching you on high stakes poker. I couldn't believe there was someone that watches as much NBA basketball as me. When you said the only time you didn't was Thursday it was so ironic. I don't expect you to take me up on the challenge but my money will get put up front to an agreeable party.

he quit betting to pursue a job in an NBA organization but i'm sure he's going to forget about all that to try and win 50K over a year!
SICK CHALLENGE BRO.

Good point which is why I said it could be arranged for a million most likely. And I don't buy the quit betting to get a job quite frankly. Thus the challenge. You make that kind of ROI there is no need for it. Although I get it. As I am one of the few that would like to guide an organization to a title for free. The challenge in some cases is bigger than cash. But lets fact it, I have no ins and if I proved to him that I am the best there is, and he got a job then I might have one. Not complicated. The fact that he does not understand the Lakers makes me a little bit doubtful of his ability to evaluate talent though. 3rd or 4th best in the west is ludicrous.

hi Bob, we emailed a few times back and forth (i was the guy that went to uwaterloo) about me working for you when you were betting, but nothing happened of it..

anyways, a question: How do you extrapolate the externalities a good player gives to his teammates? For example, the Spurs dump the ball to Duncan in the low post, left side. He backs his defender up, help comes, Duncan kicks it out, the ball is passed three times until it gets to a wide open guy on the right side for a corner 3. Duncan isn't credited with an assist or any boxscore stat on the play, but the majority of the value of the possession comes from his ability to draw an extra defender. Without sensors in the shoes of individual defenders, I don't see a good way to track this, yet it is incredibly important. Are we to rely on adj +/- or oncourt/offcourt for this? Subjective opinion? Similar situations occur with guards that are great at penetrating -- Derrick Rose might be a good example. A lot of what he does doesn't translate nicely into box scores.

In the Duncan example, should we credit the difference between an "average" 3point percentage vs the actual 3point percentage when he gets the open look due to Timmy? Does anyone do this? Looking at Damon Jones' stats, he goes from mediocre at everything except wearing stylish clothes/trash talk to being amazingly accurate w/ career high percentages the one and only year he plays with Shaq and Dwade to going back to being mediocre. It seems a lot more likely that this increase in efficiency should be credited to them rather than to Jones. Have you done any work on this?

also, random followup: Do secondary/"hockey" assists differ at all from normal assists? Are the league leaders still the usual cast of characters, or do we get some surprises?

Not everything needs to be mathematical especially if you watch as much ball as smart people do. This is basketball. Eye test more important than anything. And I think that is his biggest strength as most of his thoughts(but not all certainly) verify that.

Really interesting read thanks Bob.

Strongest memories of Winnipeg (whether good or bad)?

Love the well. Thank you.

What do you make of reverse movers (if that's what its called) for example: Line opens Cavs +2 vs Lakers. The public and 80% of money is on Cavs but the line changes to Cavs +3.5?

What the hell is Bryan Colangelo doing to my favourite team?

+1

Is John Morrison's betting system (for the NBA) something else than a scam??

Hi Bob,

You said you bet a flat 5% of br previously i think. Did you use Kelly criterion to work this out. Did your bets vary according to Kelly criterion, i mean if the line being offered is 200, would you bet the same if you calculate the line to be 190,180,170 etc?
Do you think Kelly criterion is generally a little to aggressive (probably more for the emotional issues associated with the swings than mathematical reasons).

You also said you grew up at the track. Do you have any interest in horse racing or ever explored betting on horses?

Cheers, good well, hope i am not too late. By the way for some reason the title of the thread with Bob in () reminds of the movie 'They call me Bruce'. When people ask you your name, do you say 'They call me Bob'?

Thanks for doing this, has been a great read so far. I'm a long time Knicks fan and this off season will be one of our most important summers in franchise history. If you were given full control, aside from getting LBJ/Bosh, which areas would you focus on most? Who would you want to keep and who would you want to let go? What do you think of specifically Toney Douglas and Earl Barron?

Great Thread, Bob!

Back when you were betting on the NBA, how were you able to balance work with your relationship?

For instance, when you would retreat to your office for the evening games, was your office considered off limits to your girlfriend? And then if you did your analysis during the day, how did you find time to maintain a healthy relationship?
I think you mentioned on Big Poker Sunday you have 1 day/week for date night. Was this really enough to keep here from feeling needy and thereby affecting your concentration and ability to focus.

I can tell you this much. You must beat the closing line to have a chance. 8 or 9 percent ROI as he claims will not happen if you are not doing that. Not a recipe for success fading the big money. But I have a feeling he was going with it and perhaps even creating some of the movement as he is a sharp guy.

I'm not talking about creating the movement though, I'm talking about the lines-makers deciding themselves to move it the "wrong" way.

This generated an all capital LOL

This one more like a lower case lol, or a slightly patronizing chuckle.

impact of technical fouls on your betting/nba games in general?