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Originally Posted by FoxwoodsFiend
why would this be any different late in games as opposed to mid-game? seems equally valuable regardless of time
I've long argued that you shouldn't pull guys out of the game when they're in foul trouble, as long as they don't play timidly on defense.
I think coaches need to understand how often their guys foul, and the likelihood of your guy fouling out of the game. A smart player isn't going to pick up his 5th or 6th fouls, a player like Melo might pick up his 6th at the worst possible moment in the 4th quarter.
You can think about it like this: a possession is a possession whether it occurs at the beginning of a game or at the end of a game. If your player doesn't foul out of the end of the game, and you sat him due to foul trouble, then you didn't get max usage out of him. How many more minutes out of your star could you have gotten? The answer is probably a function of foul rate or the average number of minutes he plays per foul committed throughout his career. Conversely, if he fouls out, at least you know you got the max possible minutes you possibly could out of him.