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Old 04-19-2010, 01:16 AM   #136
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

Quote:
Database handicapping is extremely overrated, somewhere along the lines people mistook what I was doing for database work and I never corrected them. You have to have a lot of data, but the data just helps you build models either through strict regression or through supposition.
Could you elaborate on what exactly you do or link to somewhere that describes it?

So you think basketball is still beatable for 8-9% ROI?

Do you think there is any game rigging going on?

What sport do you think would be the easiest to beat sportsbetting?
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Old 04-19-2010, 01:24 AM   #137
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

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Originally Posted by kurosh View Post
Could you elaborate on what exactly you do or link to somewhere that describes it?

So you think basketball is still beatable for 8-9% ROI?

Do you think there is any game rigging going on?

What sport do you think would be the easiest to beat sportsbetting?
I think basketball is still beatable by me for 8-9% ROI per year. There is a big difference between beatable by someone who has probably spent upwards of 3m on research and development and 10 years experience vs "beatable".

I really don't know if there is any game rigging, probably not.

The easiest sports to beat would be the smaller sports like Arena Football and WNBA basketball. These are extremely beatable as are props unfortunately the market is quite fragile / small for these sports.
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Old 04-19-2010, 02:05 AM   #138
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

Really enjoyable reading this well, thanks.

I'm not sure how networked you are with other sharp sportsbettors who you don't actually collaborate with, but do you know anyone you would regard as highly successful in sports betting who has close to zero fan interest in sports? (E.g. had never watched a televised game in his life before getting into betting.)
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Old 04-19-2010, 02:16 AM   #139
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

what do you think fair odds would be for lakers or cleveland to win the championship vs the field?
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Old 04-19-2010, 03:10 AM   #140
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

Thanks for the well.

Thoughts on Ed Stefanski as a GM?

Will any team without Lebron or Dwight win a title in the next 5-7 years (besides this years lakers maybe)?

How much variance is there in a 7 game series between roughly equal teams when compared to a single game?

Last edited by JReezy; 04-19-2010 at 03:15 AM.
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Old 04-19-2010, 03:44 AM   #141
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

why is the corner 3 so important? is shooting it an indicator of an overall great gameplan, or is it just a really effective shot? seems counterintuitive to me.

thanks for doing this, interesting stuff.
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Old 04-19-2010, 03:51 AM   #142
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

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Originally Posted by cts View Post
why is the corner 3 so important? is shooting it an indicator of an overall great gameplan, or is it just a really effective shot? seems counterintuitive to me.

thanks for doing this, interesting stuff.
Corner 3 is 22 feet, almost 2 feet closer than top of key 3

(In NCAA the 3 is equal distance from top and corners, 20.75 feet)
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Old 04-19-2010, 04:09 AM   #143
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

can you explain why you think Lebron is a better basketball player than Kobe? It's clear he's younger, more valuable in general, much more athletic, etc. but he's not nearly as skilled or experienced as Kobe ainec.
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Old 04-19-2010, 05:33 AM   #144
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

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can you explain why you think Lebron is a better basketball player than Kobe? It's clear he's younger, more valuable in general, much more athletic, etc. but he's not nearly as skilled or experienced as Kobe ainec.
Lebron is just a more efficient basketball player than Kobe. His size advantage over Kobe is a v valuable asset, plus Kobe is in his 14th year and declining. Kobe's experience just makes the gap wider at this point in favor of Lebron. And that's coming from a huge Lakers/Kobe fan.


*- In Kobe's defense, his longevity has been impressive. He's not Jordan or Lebron, those two are just better, but he has averaged 28/5/5 with a TS of 56% over the last 12 years, which is pretty damn beastly.
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Old 04-19-2010, 08:00 AM   #145
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

haha i didn't know you knew thebruiser. reading that line to myself in his voice was pretty funny.
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Old 04-19-2010, 09:43 AM   #146
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

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can you explain why you think Lebron is a better basketball player than Kobe? It's clear he's younger, more valuable in general, much more athletic, etc. but he's not nearly as skilled or experienced as Kobe ainec.
Pretend you've never heard of either player and just look at their individual box score stats over this season and their careers.

LBJ scores more at a more efficient rate, rebounds more, assists more, blocks more shots and is a much better defender. He is also way younger and is getting paid 17.4 vs Kobe's 25m next year.

Lebron's best teammate ever is Anderson Varejao whereas Kobe had mortal lock Hall-of-Famer all-time-great Shaq in his prime.
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Old 04-19-2010, 10:59 AM   #147
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

I don't know if u missed my question on near the middle of page 1 or not.

Also, forgive my ignorance but could you explain or someone link me to the all in bet on the Lakers? Was this a 70k bet before the season started that they would win it all? If so what were the odds?

Thanks
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Old 04-19-2010, 11:40 AM   #148
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

First off, thanks a lot for doing this well, very entertaining and insightful. Got a few bball questions:

-Can you elaborate on why the Lakers are so overrated this year? Specifically what makes them so much worse this year than last year? Is it just the loss of Ariza and lack of chemistry or is it just aging and injury or just some combo of a buncha stuff?

-In recent memory, what is the most wrong you have been about a basketball prediction/bet and what in your mind caused this to happen?

-How do you treat rookies in your system? Do you do research into how they performed in college/Europe or do you have some other way of predicting their performance?

-Do you think you would make a better head coach or GM?
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Old 04-19-2010, 12:00 PM   #149
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

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Originally Posted by EV87 View Post
can you explain why you think Lebron is a better basketball player than Kobe? It's clear he's younger, more valuable in general, much more athletic, etc. but he's not nearly as skilled or experienced as Kobe ainec.
you forgot kobes clutchness
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Old 04-19-2010, 01:39 PM   #150
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Re: The Well: Haralabos Voulgaris (Bob)

How much was situational handicapping a factor with your database for betting on the NBA?

Broad question, but to narrow it down, were there certain situations where maybe your numbers said one thing but the team was playing their 4th game in 5 nights. back 2 back? back 2 back after an overtime game. Maybe playing in Houston one night and having to play in high altitude Denver the next night? Or say fading a road dog who won straight up the night before?

Would any of these factors keep you off a play your numbers favored? Or would they make a play stronger for you? Is there any other similar situations you found profitable?

Thanks for the well. Good read.
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