These types of questions are foolish, I am not you I don't know you so how would I know what I would do if I was you.

Its pretty tough to make the assumption that you are intelligent for a couple of reasons;

1. You don't know what type of business to start but you expect others to tell you.
2. You are burnt out from poker which means you were likely playing poker for more than a few years.
3. You only have 100k to show for it.

Most importantly;


Leads me to believe you are having trouble picking up on subtle clues.

Thats all I got my man.

I think its likely quite useful in visualizing how teams will "play" with a given lineup.

They are using the proprietary Synergy data on play types so assuming this is handled properly it should be a good visualization tool. I can't imagine it'd be any good at actually predicting the outcomes of games unless they are doing some severely high level mathematical routines under the surface.

I think when talking about 6th men etc its very team dependent. I am more a big fan of just using optimal lineup combos and player pairs vs designating someone a 6th man. The team you are playing is very likely to have exploitable weaknesses and strengths you are looking to neutralize.

If placing one guy in the 6th man role allows you to have a net advantage from mins 7-12 of the 1st quarter then it makes things easier. Most teams don't have this luxury so they have to go with pairs and combos.

It very well may be that I am not intelligent. I've been humbled a lot lately.


Regardless, I didn't ask what you would do if you were me. I asked what you would do in my position. Say you had 100k to your name and a degree. What would you do? The standard reply is "start a business." If that's it, then ok, thanks for your time.

lol , perfect

How effective a barometer of offensive efficiency is Hollinger's TS%? Can a volume shooter like AI in 01 really help his team shooting 40% from the field?

Dirk shoots a high %, but he also takes tough shots late in the shot clock when his team has failed to get an easier shot. How much more valuable is this than someone who shoots the same % on a more normal distribution of shots?

4. You caught a whale.

If I was 24 and had 100k to my name today and not in the past -

I'd try and work on a very cutting edge software language, be it python, django or something of that ilk. I'd also work on developing applications for the Iphone or the Ipad or the Google platform. In short you are in luck bc you have a comp sci degree.

I'd be coding like hell and spending time with others who code. I'd be reading up as much as I could on different ways technology is embedded in our current life.

I think right now you are seeing the world through a gambling view point (poker sports etc) but you should be looking at trying to develop an application of sorts (if you goal is to get rich) that people will want to use.

that is really all I got.

TS% does a good job of explaining what its attempting to explain, I prefer just using pbp data to not have to estimate the role of free throws and instead using points per possession used.

If you can combine usage %, and the ability to create offense for others along with points per possession in a meaningful way you are probably close to measuring true offensive worth.

Thanks for doing this, it’s a great well.

What is your stance on the hack-a-Shaq/Dampier/Wallace strategy? How many points did a team net by hacking such a player per act (is it simply comparing Shaq’s FT% x2 vs his team’s avg. Points per possession, or is there more to the story)? If it is a very effective tactic, what minimum FT% do you think is necessary for an NBA player so that he doesn’t detract from his team through the Hack tactic?

Using your pricing system that you posted comparing LeBron and Kobe, how much did Shaq’s bad free throw shooting and inability to be used down the stretch hurt his value as a player overall? (Don’t know your exact pricing system Y-axis value, perhaps this can be expressed as a % downgrade vs if Shaq shot FTs at 70%?)

Related question: Do you think the NBA was unfair in changing the rules to discourage the Hack-a-Shaq? Particularly the FT+ Possession if the Hack is done < 2:00 minutes left? Is it the league’s responsibility to cover up one player’s glaring weakness for the sake of watchability, or should they have stayed out of it for fairness?

Finally, a friend who thinks he is sharp says that a tired team affects the O/U in a way opposite of their strength. In other words, high-scoring teams like Phoenix playing in their fourth game in five days would tend to go Under, while a strong defensive team like Portland playing their fourth in five would tend to go Over. Agree, or is this too simplistic?

Thanks again.

have you read this article about this group of 12 year olds who dont' know how to play basketball so the father/coach has them playing full court press?

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2..._fact_gladwell

Just wondering about your thoughts on this and if it could apply to the NBA at all

Great well, I don't have any questions but I just wanted to say I learned a lot about basketball and betting. I especially like your car rental story, I hate when they try to sell extended warranties.

Interesting well.

Under your model, did try to simulate how Richard Jef or Turk would do with their new teams? Did you have a feeling they wouldn't be able to adjust on their respected teams as anticipated by many NBA 'experts'?

Who would you rather take:

Amare or Bosh?

Blair or Bigbaby?

Bogut or Kaman?

Which of these rookies do you think will have a better NBA career, Curry or Jennings?

Thanks dude.

What is the most frequent or repercussive mistake that people make that has a negative impact on their life?

OR

What one thing would you encourage the majourity of people to do differently in their lifetime?

Do you think Cleveland and Orlando are at a disadvantage since they will probably play each other in a conference final and the Lakers (if they advance) will not have the same type physical matchup.

Hey Bob,

Great well, I'm a huge NBA fan so it's been super fun for me. A couple questions, answer whichever you feel like:

1. A few posters have asked for your opinion of some sources of NBA info online (e.g. Hollinger, Wages of Wins), and in all these cases you seem pretty unimpressed. Are there any sources of basketball info on the internet or in books that you think do a really good job?

2. You said that NBA teams are basically biding their time if they don't have a top player to build around, and would be best served building a competitive team that is fun to watch for the lowest cost otherwise. What do you think of Dallas's approach right now (I guess this could just be a debate of whether Dirk is good enough to be that top player)? Also what do you think of the 2004 Pistons?

make a shortstacking pokerbot

kratzer for 2p2 louis ck

http://hoopnumbers.com/

http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewforum.php?f=1

stinger, you may find these interesting.

coltrane, do you think such apm stuff is worthwhile?

I have done some pretty detailed work on alternative basketball strategies included among which is the Hack X. I am still holding out hope that they'll be used at some point by a team I am working with. I'll refrain from answering for that reason.

I don't know if unfair is the right word but it was kind of lame to change the rules. I do know that if one of my strategies gets used the league will change the rules the following season. I really want to have it unleashed in the playoffs bc I think it'll be pretty easy to copy and the less chance teams have to adopt it the better.

I have no idea about your friends strategy, seems plausible.

I think its unfair to group Hollinger with the Wages of wins guys. I am not a huge Hollinger fan especially when it comes to some of his predictive rankings, but he does do some good work and he does understand basketball on a higher level than most.

The Wages of Wins guys are just clueless.

As for other resources, Victor mentioned a few and they are decent. Their is a certain selection bias amongst people who do stuff on the net. Most of the really sharp people are already working for teams (or get snapped up) or are making money betting. There have been a few blogs in the past that have done some good work that are no longer updated bc they are now doing some work for others and don't want to share the information.

I think Dallas has done a good job, they came very close to winning a title already. They have extended their relevancy longer than most thought they would. I think they have a legit chance to get to finals this year and once you get that far anything is possible. I do think you can build a title contender around a player like Dirk, unfortunately for him he is on bad side of 30 at this point.

I think anything that attempts to understand some of the hidden aspects of basketball is somewhat worthwhile. I am not a huge APM fan but its much better than other one of ranking systems.

Bogut over Kaman isn't even close fwiw.

I think just accepting the status quo is pretty damaging. Its one of the things I really love about the poker world, you constantly have people who are trying to get better at what they are doing. There are very few professions (aside from athletics, finance etc) where this is true.

It doesn't have to be about $ for people that live more regular lives, but you should ask yourself daily or at least weekly. What can I do to improve the quality of my life? It can be something as simple as spending more time with people you enjoy or are positive influences in your life, and weeding out the negative influences.

mods,

posts like this, especially in a thread like this should be insta-bans. Delete it and my post plz

This thread is awesome. Bob, can you post your TV setup?

Thanks