i still dont understand how mypokerintel determines winrates.

Trambo, I think phil's statement is reasonable. Also, was phil aware that this took place a long time ago, and wasn't something current?

Josem and others:

can we use the winrates from players with varying sizes of number of hands played, then multiply everyone's winrate by the square root of the number of hands played, and then compare? or something? as long as number of hands played isn't too low?

Yea the statement doesnt seem far out of realm, i just thought it was interesting

I play exclusively HU cash at mid stakes. I've sustained 30 PTBB/100 over 4k hands. My true winrate is double digits with 80% confidence (8+ at 90% confidence).

Anyway, I mine hands all the time at mid stakes NL Cash and I have a pretty reasonable understanding of what is "normal".

Going through my DB of 8200 HU players I have to get down to 4500 hand sample to find a player at 28 PTBB/100 (a good reg btw).

There is someone at 20.03 PTBB over 3500

22.37 at 3400 hands played

26.39 at 3300 played

39.91 over 2507 hands played

27.9 at 1806 hand sample

44.87 over 1400


So yeah, 60 PTBB over even 3000 hands is pretty unlikely. If he's done this multiple times we are talking that this is conservatively in the range of 1 in hundreds of thousands of samples. If you could gather 5-6k+ hands at that winrate from dude I'd say it's pretty conclusive.

You seem to misunderstand statistics

The odds of there being someone in the universe who ran this hot are completely different than the odds of someone actually being lucky GIVEN that you have observed him

i have an idea.....stop playing at sites owned or partly owned by poker players

and yes all sites have the a superuser accounts but hopefully they all dont use

them

this may be a little off topic, but i know for sure that the list mypokerintel posted is a little off fwiw with hands played and last time played, are those just hu tables or also 6 max hands? If its not 6max AND HU, then just disregard my statement.

Comments
1)Mypokerintel need to show the leaderboard during May to September 2007 to show Nionio and anybody else with an outlier win rate during that time (see post #134).
2)Someone needs to check Nionio's hands for "cooler avoidance" , ie, check/folds strong hands to the nuts, folds KK to AA preflop, etc.
3)Obviously UB should check Nionio's ID and IP to see if it is the same or closely related to the AP cheater. Maybe it's the same person, or same location, or same consulting company, a relative, a temproray employee etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a connection.

Many thanks to mypokerintel and the players who found this. Good luck.

Just wondering if anyone knows if there was a software upgrade on UB before this suspicious play was noticed , like the upgrade that happened on Absolute? It seemed the software upgrade on Absolute was the precursor for the cheating there.

No one knows what he had when he folded. Can we find out how many times he's bet the river and folded to a raise?

alright trambo sent me the my pokerintel chart. LOL at him playing 300/600 limit. He won a total of 600k and disappeared. how many fish does that?

it appears he never had a losing session.

yikes, this is terrible in so many regards.

i consider myself a rational individual and even i am questioning how anyone can ever trust the validity of an online poker site again. $600,000 stolen and only by pure chance and some tough detective work did a couple people figure it out months later. what are we supposed to tell the live fish when they ask us if online is rigged heh?

wow thats so sick...never had a losing session? Well I def remember playing him and I'm going to take a wild guess and say I lost. UB, where is my refund? This is ridiculous. At first, I have to say I was very skeptical and doubted gaucho on AIM and trambo's claims here, but after I see these records it's pretty conclusive, **** nice job guys

If I'm reading it right he had 15 losing session out of 62 but all his losing sessions were for a buyin or less.

thanks boojsted. trambo and i took a hell of a lot of heat from ike, fwf, et. all, but thanks should really go to fsuplayer who could have listened to all of those guys and deleted our original thread, but instead he chose to let it stand long enough for people to realize trambo and i weren't morons.

trambo and i really really really were convinced, just by reviewing all the hands and thinking them through logically, and combined with the winrate we had of him over the 2300 hands we had at that point (before we found more hands on him), we were convinced.

now it seems at least most people believe us now.

So, it's pretty clear 600k was taken from hsnl players during this time, 28k from me, 57k from trambo, 27k from zeebo, etc. etc.

What is the next step?

Any suggestions?

I think the column you're reading is the sum of all pots won, not net winnings.

When I played on them, Ann Arbor was 50-100 and Shrewsbury was 25-50, which means that the number in the UnitEarnRate column is twice the big blind, or one PTBB. The chart is using PTBB for UnitWin.

We have net winnings of $605k or 4280 PTBB in 8180 hands played, for a win rate of 52 PTBB/100.

ez game right GoG? it might actually be useful for us to get a "josem"-esque graph over 8k hands, and see how the 52ptbb/100 win rate comes out over those hands. I guess he really cooled off from the 3k hands trambo and I had on him, 60ptbb/100 was unsustainable.

this sucks so much

as a community i believe a lot of pressure should be applied, not only to UB/AP but all sites, to hire at least one competent security team member to investigate mathematical anomalies at high stakes/nosebleeds. they have all the data and if they want high stakes games and players it should be standard (ahem stars/ftp). they make a lot of money from us.

these cardrooms have done nothing to earn our trust unfortunately.

this is so bad.

what can we do? not play at a site like ub? the games are too good and if the better players leave they'll only get better and better. do we really have no power in this? Can we all join some sort of poker player group that fights for our rights/ the fairness and security of poker sites? we really need industry regulation.

stealthcow-

Thanks for pointing that out. I guess they would need to ask UB to check Nionio's hole cards, assuming that UB still has HHs for him.

All,

If this is true, then there's almost certainly one or more other guys (and probably this guy too) still playing, but just using it for decisions like "Do I call this PSB on the river w/ top pair when the flush got there?" In spots like that, folding is not suspicious at all, nor is calling w/ top pair. But making the right decision every time is $$$$$.

El D, think about how long it took people to even consider (just mentally) that a Nionio (who did not make absurd call downs with T high) might exist as a superuser. My initial decision to present hands (in the original thread) that nionio LOST was based on the logic that I wanted to paint of picture of Nionio was a "smart" superuser (obviously this was the wrong decision, but my intention was correct). What do you think are next steps to move forward with this? Any advice would be much appreciated,
dlpnyc21

ugh, this sux so bad. ub is the only site i win at.