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Old 01-08-2008, 11:57 PM   #16
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Guys,

I don't really lurk or post here much anymore but this reminds me of one player I played against who played "perfectly" for a lot of hands at 25-50ish ago. I've been playing seriously for almost 3 years now and many of you know me as fairly realistic/not conspiracy theorist and this was just absolutely crazy the calls/plays this guy made.

I think he played me on 2 screen names - weffers and printscreen though i'm not 100% about the second one because it was so long ago. Hopefully one of you can come on and say that it was you and I will admit to being owned. But I was convinced I was cheated at the time and disregarded it because I felt I wasn't being honest with myself. These threads bring back the memory of this guy.

I don't want to make a big issue of it. But perhaps one of you can PM me and say it was you or others can check their PT database for this guy.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:15 AM   #17
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lefort View Post
The
plot
thickens
.

NioNio ~ iNo,iNo ~ i know, i know ~ i know what you are holding
NioNio, nine nine in greek, hellmuth's favorite hand, who is sponsored by UB... dun dun dunnnnn
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:20 AM   #18
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

posted by snagglepuss on the old/deleted thread:

If you give any one of the smarter people I know from 2+2 this capability, they would be able to obviously decimate all games and pretty much 100% avoid any sort of detection. AJ green and company obviously went about it horribly. This guy, assuming foul play, could have fallen somewhere in between.'
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:22 AM   #19
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

fwiw i've had 2 sessions i remember on ub vs complete randos (raptor/craigmarq sweated one) where for days afterwards i thought something was off. I don't think i've ever felt this of any game on any other site. It scares me that cts says this also, and makes me want to look into some ub stuff. When i get back from australia i'll be requesting all my ub hh's and pokertrackering them etc. but that will be a little over 2weeks. Btw dave/craig if either of you remember that guys name post it here.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:29 AM   #20
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

durrr,

ub will not be able to comply with your HH request, so that won't work. fwiw i think there is something wrong here, and will be going over the hand histories myself to get a better overall picture of what may have taken place.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:30 AM   #21
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Ok, im going through all the hand histories and am going to post the ones i think are strangest. The problem is in order to convince alot of you, you would have to read the whole HH log of my heads up sessions vs him and im not gonna post the whole thing here. If you want it, pm me or omniheart and we'd be glad to send it out. Anyway, here is the poker ev graph of the 2300 hands i have on him. Note the 72k won at showdown and 124k won w/ out showdown

http://img210.imageshack.us/my.php?i...iographlp2.png
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:41 AM   #22
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Quote:
Originally Posted by dlpnyc21 View Post
posted by snagglepuss on the old/deleted thread:

If you give any one of the smarter people I know from 2+2 this capability, they would be able to obviously decimate all games and pretty much 100% avoid any sort of detection. AJ green and company obviously went about it horribly. This guy, assuming foul play, could have fallen somewhere in between.'

dlp, plz refrain from simply quoting people's opinions from the old thread. i wanted you to start a new thread when you had more/better organized evidence, not to just repost the same stuff.
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Old 01-09-2008, 12:49 AM   #23
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Quote:
Originally Posted by trambopoline View Post
Ok, im going through all the hand histories and am going to post the ones i think are strangest. The problem is in order to convince alot of you, you would have to read the whole HH log of my heads up sessions vs him and im not gonna post the whole thing here. If you want it, pm me or omniheart and we'd be glad to send it out. Anyway, here is the poker ev graph of the 2300 hands i have on him. Note the 72k won at showdown and 124k won w/ out showdown

http://img210.imageshack.us/my.php?i...iographlp2.png
I think that to make a strong case, you need to explain this.

How does that graph diverge from what is normal? Can you post the equivalent graph of your play over a similar span of hands?
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:28 AM   #24
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Well basically the graph was posted to show that he wasnt just running like God, like many other people suggested. He ran a mere 20k above his expected equity which is not that much considering he was up 195k total in my DB.
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Old 01-09-2008, 01:37 AM   #25
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

filtering the position stats in the DB for 4+ handed, he was a massive winner out of the blinds over the sample. which of course is ez game when you can call lots of raises and play relatively perfect at will.

Last edited by snagglepuss; 01-09-2008 at 01:43 AM.
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Old 01-09-2008, 03:53 AM   #26
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

pokerplayers underestimate variance, and typically view in it the realms of what they've seen(limidonks used to consider 300BB a full bankroll, then the 500BB downswings started showing up), a 5ptbb/100 winner could have a 200buyin downswing playing Agame the entire time(though doubtful anyone would actually maintain it), its unbelievably unlikely, but a non-zero probability

not sure if you guys saw the sklansky thread on google/googleplex and talking about the odds of stuff like hitting the powerball 100times in a row and what not

huge grinders might have 3million hands in their lifetime, but thats only 1000 3k hand samples, which isn't close to enough to see everything possible

so if this player hit the 1 in a 10billion superrun, obviously it will look like something is really wrong
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:04 AM   #27
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

yes, in all possible universes it is possible for someone to run at the absolute top end of the variance lottery. and of course this is not to be discounted.

but in this situation it is, in my opinion, more likely that foul play was involved. and therefore needs to be investigated.

i don't think any of the intelligent poker players concerned are underestimating variance. i think that those who are saying 'not likely!' 'cant happen!' are underestimating the probability that some type of cheating has taken place.
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:37 AM   #28
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Perhaps he could just run like a god but then to quit 9/4 after not giving any back and never play again deleting that sn. When you put those 2 factors together it looks awful suspect.
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:47 AM   #29
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

Would UB have the HandHistorys still saved with all hole cards exposed ala AP? Is there any contact being attempted with any UB contacts besides the crappy general support/investigation?
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Old 01-09-2008, 04:59 AM   #30
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Re: Suspicious Plays on UB 25/50 and 50/100

It's ok to run that good for like 500 hands, but for so long especially against good players? I doubt that.

Isn't UB part of AP?
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