i still dont understand how mypokerintel determines winrates.

Trambo, I think phil's statement is reasonable. Also, was phil aware that this took place a long time ago, and wasn't something current?

Josem and others:

can we use the winrates from players with varying sizes of number of hands played, then multiply everyone's winrate by the square root of the number of hands played, and then compare? or something? as long as number of hands played isn't too low?

Yea the statement doesnt seem far out of realm, i just thought it was interesting

I play exclusively HU cash at mid stakes. I've sustained 30 PTBB/100 over 4k hands. My true winrate is double digits with 80% confidence (8+ at 90% confidence).

Anyway, I mine hands all the time at mid stakes NL Cash and I have a pretty reasonable understanding of what is "normal".

Going through my DB of 8200 HU players I have to get down to 4500 hand sample to find a player at 28 PTBB/100 (a good reg btw).

There is someone at 20.03 PTBB over 3500

22.37 at 3400 hands played

26.39 at 3300 played

39.91 over 2507 hands played

27.9 at 1806 hand sample

44.87 over 1400


So yeah, 60 PTBB over even 3000 hands is pretty unlikely. If he's done this multiple times we are talking that this is conservatively in the range of 1 in hundreds of thousands of samples. If you could gather 5-6k+ hands at that winrate from dude I'd say it's pretty conclusive.

You seem to misunderstand statistics

The odds of there being someone in the universe who ran this hot are completely different than the odds of someone actually being lucky GIVEN that you have observed him

i have an idea.....stop playing at sites owned or partly owned by poker players

and yes all sites have the a superuser accounts but hopefully they all dont use

them

this may be a little off topic, but i know for sure that the list mypokerintel posted is a little off fwiw with hands played and last time played, are those just hu tables or also 6 max hands? If its not 6max AND HU, then just disregard my statement.

Comments
1)Mypokerintel need to show the leaderboard during May to September 2007 to show Nionio and anybody else with an outlier win rate during that time (see post #134).
2)Someone needs to check Nionio's hands for "cooler avoidance" , ie, check/folds strong hands to the nuts, folds KK to AA preflop, etc.
3)Obviously UB should check Nionio's ID and IP to see if it is the same or closely related to the AP cheater. Maybe it's the same person, or same location, or same consulting company, a relative, a temproray employee etc. I wouldn't be surprised to see a connection.

Many thanks to mypokerintel and the players who found this. Good luck.

Just wondering if anyone knows if there was a software upgrade on UB before this suspicious play was noticed , like the upgrade that happened on Absolute? It seemed the software upgrade on Absolute was the precursor for the cheating there.

No one knows what he had when he folded. Can we find out how many times he's bet the river and folded to a raise?

alright trambo sent me the my pokerintel chart. LOL at him playing 300/600 limit. He won a total of 600k and disappeared. how many fish does that?

it appears he never had a losing session.

yikes, this is terrible in so many regards.

i consider myself a rational individual and even i am questioning how anyone can ever trust the validity of an online poker site again. $600,000 stolen and only by pure chance and some tough detective work did a couple people figure it out months later. what are we supposed to tell the live fish when they ask us if online is rigged heh?

wow thats so sick...never had a losing session? Well I def remember playing him and I'm going to take a wild guess and say I lost. UB, where is my refund? This is ridiculous. At first, I have to say I was very skeptical and doubted gaucho on AIM and trambo's claims here, but after I see these records it's pretty conclusive, **** nice job guys