Originally Posted by LuckyScum
I thought a five was more likely than a flush (his small raise sizes indicated to me some fear of a flush) but otherwise agree with your analysis. I folded on the end, getting more than 3:1 for a call. Part of me wondered whether he could have somehow been confident or crazy with a weaker holding but think he would have been more likely to re-raise on the flop than on the turn.
Im not too sure how to interpret the bet sizing. When i first read the post i thought it was a bit weird that he didn't shove the river but that doesn't have to mean he is scared of a higher flush. I think it is possible his flop bet/call, turn xr and river bet could be the nut flush since that may be the only flush he is comfortable "slow playing" this way on the flop? Not too sure but he could have lower flushes too i suppose. As far as him having a 5, i wouldn't say it is "more likely" since combinatorically there just isn't that much(3 combos of 5-5 and that is assuming he would raise 2 limpers w 5-5, and other than that idk i guess depends on this guys style)
also bet/calling flop than xr turn is SUPER strong almost regardless of bet sizing so i think he probably has a flush here MOST of the time in theory and combinatorically.
Pretty tilting tho, finally flop a damn set and get this board and run out
o well, i think even if u fold and he shows the QQs u made the right decision at the time and are supposed to adjust afterwards. (unless u were supposed to pick up some live tell that u missed, did u pick up anything after the xr and river bet? in fact u really did not write anything about what u felt about his timing or tells, do u just not pay attention to these things or was villain pretty good at being "read less," anyways if there was anything please share, almost always a fold tho, good hand sir