Top set on an ugly board

[LuckyScum]

10-20 NL, early afternoon, Commerce. Not much history, but Villain is a 30-ish European who seems generally solid but likely loses a little. 2 loose players UTG+1 and MP limp, Villain makes it $100, I am on the button with 6 6 and call. Much to everyone's surprise, both loose players fold and Villain and I see a 6s 4s 3s flop heads up. He leads for $200, I make it $600, he calls. The turn is a red 7, he checks, I bet $900, he makes it $1900, I call.

River is a red Q. He leads for $2500 with $2000 behind. I cover and ... ?


Thoughts on all streets welcome. For what it's worth, he probably sees me as an active but solid 50-ish player.

[Nyuko]

i'd shove the turn to be honest, many river cards you really don't wanna see

@ the turn ur only losing to a five or a set of sevens, so, yea, basically if he has any of those good for him, but imo it's +ev the turn shoving

[jrr63]

Unless I'm misreading there is a flush out there as well.

[BreakYaNeck]

Shoving the turn has to be absolutely terrible. It accomplishes nothing. I mean he calls with any better hands and folds all his air. Seems like a terrible time to shove. I fold the river and am happy about it

[LuckyScum]

Preflop, raising is possible but with two loose live ones limping, I decided to call.

The flop plays itself.

His small raise size on the turn indicated to me that he probably wasn't bluffing, so I never considered raising. Can we find a check there? Or do we lose too much value from pairs with flush draws?

[EyeRays]

I think u played the hand well. Pre seems standard, raising the flop also seems standard. Once he xr the turn it seems that he has a flush and there are a decent amount of combos of flushes that he could probably have. I suppose its possible he has 7-7 with a spade or 5-5 with a spade that also beat u.

I think betting the turn is still likely best though... there are 3 combos of each pair containing a spade so maybe 8-8+ that he would raise pre and play post this way would be 7*3=21 combos. He would probably never xr the turn w these tho so once he does that he probably has the hands that beat u.

Luckily for you he gave such a nice price... 1,000 more to win (1900+900+600+600+100+100+20+20+20+10)=$4,270 roughly/$1000= 4.27/1 odds. assuming he has two spades we know of 8 cards by the turn so there are 44 cards remaining, 10 give u the best hand so ur odds are 4.4/1 to hit a full house or quads. He is giving u close to the right immediate odds and of course u could also win another 4.5k on river so slam dunk super cool call on turn bink river full house like CMON ONE TIME DAMNIT!

Obv sigh fold river tho and thank for such a nice price.

[DREAMS_DONT_DIE]

Originally Posted by Nyuko

i'd shove the turn to be honest, many river cards you really don't wanna see

@ the turn ur only losing to a five or a set of sevens, so, yea, basically if he has any of those good for him, but imo it's +ev the turn shoving

lol, thats hilarious

[lucknotskill]

All in bluff time

[LuckyScum]

Originally Posted by EyeRays

I think u played the hand well. Pre seems standard, raising the flop also seems standard. Once he xr the turn it seems that he has a flush and there are a decent amount of combos of flushes that he could probably have. I suppose its possible he has 7-7 with a spade or 5-5 with a spade that also beat u.

I think betting the turn is still likely best though... there are 3 combos of each pair containing a spade so maybe 8-8+ that he would raise pre and play post this way would be 7*3=21 combos. He would probably never xr the turn w these tho so once he does that he probably has the hands that beat u.

Luckily for you he gave such a nice price... 1,000 more to win (1900+900+600+600+100+100+20+20+20+10)=$4,270 roughly/$1000= 4.27/1 odds. assuming he has two spades we know of 8 cards by the turn so there are 44 cards remaining, 10 give u the best hand so ur odds are 4.4/1 to hit a full house or quads. He is giving u close to the right immediate odds and of course u could also win another 4.5k on river so slam dunk super cool call on turn bink river full house like CMON ONE TIME DAMNIT!

Obv sigh fold river tho and thank for such a nice price.

I thought a five was more likely than a flush (his small raise sizes indicated to me some fear of a flush) but otherwise agree with your analysis. I folded on the end, getting more than 3:1 for a call. Part of me wondered whether he could have somehow been confident or crazy with a weaker holding but think he would have been more likely to re-raise on the flop than on the turn.

[Nyuko]

Originally Posted by DREAMS_DONT_DIE

lol, thats hilarious

didnt read well the flop, thought the flop had 2 spades instead of 3, thats why i said he really doesnt want to see the river...

[EyeRays]

Originally Posted by LuckyScum

I thought a five was more likely than a flush (his small raise sizes indicated to me some fear of a flush) but otherwise agree with your analysis. I folded on the end, getting more than 3:1 for a call. Part of me wondered whether he could have somehow been confident or crazy with a weaker holding but think he would have been more likely to re-raise on the flop than on the turn.

Im not too sure how to interpret the bet sizing. When i first read the post i thought it was a bit weird that he didn't shove the river but that doesn't have to mean he is scared of a higher flush. I think it is possible his flop bet/call, turn xr and river bet could be the nut flush since that may be the only flush he is comfortable "slow playing" this way on the flop? Not too sure but he could have lower flushes too i suppose. As far as him having a 5, i wouldn't say it is "more likely" since combinatorically there just isn't that much(3 combos of 5-5 and that is assuming he would raise 2 limpers w 5-5, and other than that idk i guess depends on this guys style)

also bet/calling flop than xr turn is SUPER strong almost regardless of bet sizing so i think he probably has a flush here MOST of the time in theory and combinatorically.

Pretty tilting tho, finally flop a damn set and get this board and run out o well, i think even if u fold and he shows the QQs u made the right decision at the time and are supposed to adjust afterwards. (unless u were supposed to pick up some live tell that u missed, did u pick up anything after the xr and river bet? in fact u really did not write anything about what u felt about his timing or tells, do u just not pay attention to these things or was villain pretty good at being "read less," anyways if there was anything please share, almost always a fold tho, good hand sir )