Quote:
Originally Posted by warchant09
Ziplok: I got murray at even money
Others: No you didnt
Zip: Ohh, I actually bet 14 to win 4
Others: Who did you bet with?
Zip: I don't want to out someone who made a bad bet
Me: Bet didn't look that good or bad either way since every bookie offered that price or a slightly better price on Murray.
I was implying that if the price is widely available and if we assume that a pretty big market like a semifinal of a grand slam tourney is fairly efficient, then the price reflects the probability of the outcome of the match. That would make the bet close to 0EV or at least not a very good bet. Ziplok obviously disagrees and he might be right, but that's besides the point, isn't it?
I thought it was pretty obvious what I was referring to, but maybe I should have made that clearer. Sorry about that
Or are you objecting to something else about my post?