Patrik is laying me $220k-20k on a tennis bet, scheduled for the first week of June in Vegas. We arranged this bet about six weeks ago and nothing has changed since then. The match will be on an indoor court at the International Tennis Center. Two out of three sets, new balls every set.

I'd like $10k additional action at the same price. PM me or post in thread if you are interested in a $6k-$500 piece (we're not booked until I clearly confirm via PM that we're booked).

I think this is a good gamble and a fair price --- I just want some additional motivation. My take is that I'm the money favorite; Patrik's take is that he's the money favorite.

Patrik played some college tennis in the US and was reportedly a top junior in Finland. He often works out twice a day. I was a fairly terrible junior tennis player, never breaking the top 50 in Florida in my age division and rarely breaking the top 100 (never finished the year in the top 100). I didn't play college tennis, and it's likely that my body fat percentage is above 20 percent.

Brandon

Also, I have a modest tendency to choke while gambling big on sports.

Patrick was on the future circuit right? I dont see how you will have any shot.
What are you doing to train for this
I sponsor a guy whos on the tour, and i use to be top 5 in my province, and the tour player could offer me 60-1 and he could take a year off and i still wouldnt take the bet

I really hope this is gonna be filmed!

ya this would be sweet to see

+1, would be fun to watch

when did patrik stop playing tennis on regular basis?

Im pretty sure Patrik didnt play on the future circuit.

Does PA still have back problems?

If he gets injured before the scheduled day, or during the match, do you get the win?
I feel that this may be your only shot, but GL anyways.

IMO- the odds for something like this should be like either 3:1 or 30:1 or greater. You either have an okay ish shot at it or literally almost a 0 chance. and the fact that PA is giving u 11:1 makes me think he firmly believe u have no chance. lol which makes me want to bet. idk i feel like i need more info though. cant really find anything.

on a side note--FLA is a pretty tough tennis state for juniors. Def top 3 when I was playing.

what do you think your true ranking would have been as a junior at your peak (in FLA)?
a lot of times its just a matter of volume as a junior.

reserve my 11k to your 1k please.

you have 0 chance. let me take your place plz

betting vs PA = -ev

So you think there is no such thing as a true 11 to 1 dog in tennis?

i think there is at the pro level but imo its more "polarized" here. at their level or what i think to be their level (i would guess based on what he said about juniors im probably somewhat close skill wise to brandon) its hard to find a true 11:1 match. against the vast majority of ppl youre going to have an okay chance to win or a very very small chance and vice versa.

you should of def tried to push this bet as a 1 set winner takes alll,

Now that I would bet on

I really doubt there is, even at the pro level

federer vs like 250 in the world i would say is 11-1 in a 2 out of 3

Nah, would be way way longer odds. For example, Beck(101 in the world) is 100-1 vs Murray in the Oz open 1st round, granted its 5 sets.

Also, Fed is 1-9 to win his quarter in the Oz open, which includes Roddick, Monfils, Wawrinka and Fish.

there's gotta be a catch to this. BA is selling himself as being bad too much.

Brandon- how good would you say your serve is?

tennis is like pool in some respects. he has to be giving you points and games or both or something. increasing the odds on an even money match does nothing. he could give you 100:1 and it basically doesn't matter if he's really that much better than you.

the only hope in these types of bets is that the better player chokes from the $ at stake. clearly not gunna happen w/ PA.

there's such a huge skill differential (based on your description) that unless he gets injured or chokes or something, you simply will not win this bet.

things to make this more fair:

- he gives n points/game and/or x games/set
- he gives you doubles alleys and gets 1 serve instead of 2
- he plays x% of games lefty

prob lots of others but those are some standard ones.

lol at 11-1. Almost no one is that big a dog and BA played competitive tennis in a very tough State. Probably California/Florida are among the top states. You guys might not know a lot of tennis. Being on the futures tour isn't like some holy grail I know many. Nor is playing tennis in the united states college team. Tennis is an odd sport in that if A beats B 6-2 and B beats C 6-2 it doesn't mean A will even beat player C. If you can hit topspin and not hit a short ball, vice versa can attack a short ball you are never an 11-1 dog to anybody. being on a fast indoor even negates PA being more fit and working out.

Plus tennis there are losts of days you can have a really crappy day or the other guy can be slightly in the zone, or even days where you're clearly the better player have 15 break points and they don't fall your way, the other guy will be 1-1 on BP. I haven't played a in 14 years except when wimbledon/us open is on tv last 2 years, and I'd take 11-1 against Patrick any day and I'm hella out shape.

Serious PA or BA pm me.

[QUOTE=NLnewb;24220679]lol at 11-1. QUOTE]

after reading your post ill give u 20-1 on a tennis match

i should prob read posts better lol. didn't see he was at one point top 50 in FL. that's real. huge tennis programs down there. prob best or 2nd best state in the nation.

that said, the 20% body fat is insane. and being out of shape is killer, fast court or not. doesn't look nearly like 100:1 like i was thinking (i.e. 6.5 vs. a 5), so 11:1 looks more fair.

2/3 sets >>> 3/5 too. also depends on BA's training regimen.

honestly though i'd wanna see them both play before placing any bets. i've learned that taking somebody's word for their level can lead to large mistakes in handicapping lol.