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Tennis bet vs Patrik Tennis bet vs Patrik

01-19-2011 , 02:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wins_pot
Tennis betting is mostly efficient, but not always. Yesterday Nadal was a 70-1 fav just before the match, but his opponent, marcos daniel, came into the match injured and literally would not have won the match once if they did it over again 500 times. Daniel quit after eleven games.

Pro tennis is more predictable than college tennis, college is more predictable than juniors, juniors is more predictable than recreational adult. The reason, roughly, is that the defining element of pro tennis and college tennis is aggressive shot-making. Counterpunching simply cannot win. A top college player differs from a mid-level college player in the quality of his shot-making, and he will not miss a high enough percentage of his aggressive shots, even on a bad day, to allow the lesser player to beat him. For juniors and adults, it's common for the unforced error number of the better player to balloon on a bad day, such that the lesser player wins.

I would say that Patrik is a 5.5, with a very strong serve, such that he can occasionally beat a top player.

I would be immediately DQ'd from 4.0. The steadiest 4.5's can beat me right now I think, but I hit too heavy of a ball for most 4.5's. I guess I would be a weak 5.0 right now, but I could pass as a 4.5.

Brandon
Think ur a smart guy but (given the description of your tennis condition) you really don't have a very clear understanding of tennis or at least estimating edges. For example I think you and I could play every day for the rest of our lives and you wouldn't win a set. That might sound arrogant but I am honestly just trying to be descriptive. I really hope you make me eat those words.

Good luck

P.S I mean I hope I eat the words about u and PA's bet.
01-19-2011 , 02:52 AM
Brandon--just re-read my post. That was a bit harsh. I stand by my assessment of your chances against PA. Good excuse to get in great shape and work on your game anyway.

P.S you guys thought about actually making the match interesting and handicapping it. For example you get to start every game 30 love up or PA uses a wood racquet? At least this gives us something interesting to watch.
01-19-2011 , 03:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by X____X
If fed was to play someone 250 in the world, fed if normal healthy is going to lose pretty much never. 250-1 and I'll be bet fed every time, its not even close.

A 6.0 player would lose to a 5.0 player NEVER. I don't care if you give me 1000-1 bet, the 5.0 is not going to win vs a real 6.0.

I spent some time coaching 4.5 5.0 guys and they couldn't beat me ever in a set even if I dicked around and made it close. It is so not even close.

If BA feels he is a weak 5.0 its gonna be tough if PA has any type of polished game. If PA has that extra gear where he can confidently have a go to plan such as just work BAs backhand and work the points from there... he will cut him up and BA has no shot. I just don't know how good PA is. If PA is like a good 5.0 maybe 5.5 then if you catch him on a windy day or whatever you could beat him. BA is very logical but so are most of the business 4.5/5.0 tennis players in the US and they all think they have a chance vs the next level up.

I did work Nick Rainey with a wooden racket 6-0 on a practice court at a junior event when he was 14 when he was 1 in PNW's. I haven't seen that kid in 15 years, I'm sure he will be happy if he reads this. I'll put that on my resume as my tennis expertise.

Gonna go to the aussie open now and watch some tennis.
Unless your Bjorn Borg what were you doing with a wooden racket when Nick was 14 years old? I'm guessing Nick was prob 6 years old when the days of wood rackets ended.
01-19-2011 , 04:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsnipes28
nothing of value to add just wanted to note that i feel like there are a disproportionate number of tennis experts on 2p2.
+1 to this, awesome thread. Fair to say high level tennis players are all gambling addicts based on these guys coming out of the woodwork?
01-19-2011 , 04:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dangerfish
Think ur a smart guy but (given the description of your tennis condition) you really don't have a very clear understanding of tennis or at least estimating edges. For example I think you and I could play every day for the rest of our lives and you wouldn't win a set. That might sound arrogant but I am honestly just trying to be descriptive. I really hope you make me eat those words.

Good luck

P.S I mean I hope I eat the words about u and PA's bet.
i mean i see where you're coming from, and you may very well be correct, but don't you think its a bit silly for so many ppl to be making these grand assumptions without ever having seen either PA or BA play?
01-19-2011 , 04:54 AM
I never played tennis but if I were to play and nba player my height and I was given 11-1 odds for a match 6months away. I would do all and everything that I can to win (taking 1000 jumpshots a day,practicing 12 hours perday,etc...) since I will be 11Xing my investment.
not sure if the same thing applies to tennis but I would assume so.
01-19-2011 , 05:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRONICFEVER
I never played tennis but if I were to play and nba player my height and I was given 11-1 odds for a match 6months away. I would do all and everything that I can to win (taking 1000 jumpshots a day,practicing 12 hours perday,etc...) since I will be 11Xing my investment.
not sure if the same thing applies to tennis but I would assume so.
not to be a dick, but that seems like a really really bad way of just saying you think BA is going to practice alot.
01-19-2011 , 05:40 AM
http://www.pokernews.com/video/emily...1618642207.htm

im probably way out of the loop, but did this ever go down?
01-19-2011 , 05:40 AM
People are coming out of the woodwork here in this thread.

BA, Life is about the minor details and I didn't say that I'm a few years older then Nick which is a big advantage and the reason why it was a cake walk.

As for the wooden racket comment, we were both playing in a junior event, and we found some old wooden rackets in the pro shop. Naturally as a kid your stoked about this find and you go play. It was like 94 95, not 1970.

The fed comment about 99% of his net worth, can't argue that. I'm dying at the pro tennis comment, I remember my first future my college buddy played this asian kid was the worst player in the world. He had a coach, sick gear, who knows what sucker was putting up 100k a year to sponsor this guy. He shanked more then 10 balls over the fence at a 45 degree angle on his own serve, we were dying laughing watching the match as my buddy won like 0 and 1. We still rip on him as that was his only only futures win.

I like what BA said about rainey, he has no shot vs nick no matter what and BA sees this from what I gather. At the open today, I asked a coach that had a guy in the top 25ATP and I phrased the question like this- If an average US d3 player was to play a 5.0 player and they both were 35 years old, what are the odds. He said 8 or 12-1 after a few seconds of thought. If this is a fair assessment of PA's game, then it will come down to a couple key points in each set which you should know. If BA isn't clutch like the past in these moments then its gonna be rough. But isn't this why we live life, its just money and its worth the challenge of putting yourself in this situation and seeing if you can come through.

The line is very thin though between that fair assessment of PA's game and having no chance being outclassed from the start.
01-19-2011 , 06:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
not to be a dick, but that seems like a really really bad way of just saying you think BA is going to practice alot.
ty for takin it ez, and my bball example could be way offf
but Isnt BA asking for more action itt so he can practice more.
01-19-2011 , 06:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisCrocker
You realize safina had to play clijsters right? if safina won more than 4 games i would have applauded her.
what r u trying to tell me?

....im confused what point u r trying to prove/tell me by quoting what i said and making sure i knew kim was playing safina? or what?


huh?
01-19-2011 , 09:18 AM
Did any of you guys play on the east coast? I was pretty good at tennis, but by the time i entered highschool i really lost any desire to play. I was on our highschool tennis team, St Johns Shrewsbury, but was only ranked #7 or something on our team. We had the #1 and #3 ranked players in new england. their skill level was absurd. the #3 seed could beat me left handed, it was pretty embarrassing.
01-19-2011 , 11:30 AM
My thesis is that Patrik and I have about the same level of talent, such that there is at least a decent chance that I can improve enough to beat him.

I recently read The Talent Code. This book argues that we tend to overplay the role of talent in explaining results and underplay the roles of passion and practice. This runs completely counter to my experience in tennis. I think tennis is almost entirely about natural aptitude.

Apparently, David Benyamine is the most talented tennis player who plays poker. I have never seen him play, but I've heard that he's very gifted.

I've heard that Gus is also very good at tennis, but take a look at the skill differential b/w Gus and a good college player.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nOtf...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMFgqnrJ0lI

Nick would have been about the same level (perhaps marginally better) as Sasha (1st video, above) in college, though Sasha was ranked #4 in the 18s nationally.

Brandon
01-19-2011 , 12:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
i mean i see where you're coming from, and you may very well be correct, but don't you think its a bit silly for so many ppl to be making these grand assumptions without ever having seen either PA or BA play?
To the extent that Brandon is being accurate about his assessment of both of there games I would say it doesn't matter that much. But yeah watching them play would pretty much take all the guesswork out of it.
01-19-2011 , 12:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRONICFEVER
I never played tennis but if I were to play and nba player my height and I was given 11-1 odds for a match 6months away. I would do all and everything that I can to win (taking 1000 jumpshots a day,practicing 12 hours perday,etc...) since I will be 11Xing my investment.
not sure if the same thing applies to tennis but I would assume so.
I think tennis is a bit unique in that the skill sets take an absurd amount of practice to develop. There is also the question of movement which is a factor that is probably a bit undervalued but it incredibly important. Luck is also almost non--existent in a tennis match. That might be an overstatement but for example if PA gets unucky vs BA and loses than the edge was never close to what it seems to be.
01-19-2011 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wins_pot
My thesis is that Patrik and I have about the same level of talent, such that there is at least a decent chance that I can improve enough to beat him.

I recently read The Talent Code. This book argues that we tend to overplay the role of talent in explaining results and underplay the roles of passion and practice. This runs completely counter to my experience in tennis. I think tennis is almost entirely about natural aptitude.

Apparently, David Benyamine is the most talented tennis player who plays poker. I have never seen him play, but I've heard that he's very gifted.

I've heard that Gus is also very good at tennis, but take a look at the skill differential b/w Gus and a good college player.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nOtf...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMFgqnrJ0lI

Nick would have been about the same level (perhaps marginally better) as Sasha (1st video, above) in college, though Sasha was ranked #4 in the 18s nationally.

Brandon
gus is pretty awkward in that short clip

Last edited by walkmyline; 01-19-2011 at 12:56 PM.
01-19-2011 , 12:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by riverboatking
i mean i see where you're coming from, and you may very well be correct, but don't you think its a bit silly for so many ppl to be making these grand assumptions without ever having seen either PA or BA play?
+1
01-19-2011 , 01:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wins_pot
My thesis is that Patrik and I have about the same level of talent, such that there is at least a decent chance that I can improve enough to beat him.

I recently read The Talent Code. This book argues that we tend to overplay the role of talent in explaining results and underplay the roles of passion and practice. This runs completely counter to my experience in tennis. I think tennis is almost entirely about natural aptitude.

Apparently, David Benyamine is the most talented tennis player who plays poker. I have never seen him play, but I've heard that he's very gifted.

I've heard that Gus is also very good at tennis, but take a look at the skill differential b/w Gus and a good college player.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nOtf...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMFgqnrJ0lI

Nick would have been about the same level (perhaps marginally better) as Sasha (1st video, above) in college, though Sasha was ranked #4 in the 18s nationally.

Brandon
Brandon your quote about tennis being almost entirely about natural aptitude is just completely backwards when you compare tennis to most sports. Not saying that natural aptitude is not important in tennis, but if you look at sports like Basketball, football , or track you find that natural ability is a huge factor in the success of the athlete. In tennis you can actually go pretty far just by outworking your counterparts. Golf would be the extreme example of what I am talking about.

I have never read the Talent Code but I agree with the premise of the book from what you describe. As far as David Benyamine goes, I have never seen him play tennis so I can only imagine the physical gifts he possesses
01-19-2011 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jcmoussa
Did any of you guys play on the east coast? I was pretty good at tennis, but by the time i entered highschool i really lost any desire to play. I was on our highschool tennis team, St Johns Shrewsbury, but was only ranked #7 or something on our team. We had the #1 and #3 ranked players in new england. their skill level was absurd. the #3 seed could beat me left handed, it was pretty embarrassing.
What year were you? my roomate graduated highschool from private school in westchester (we all went to the same HS) in 2001 and played college (missed i think 1.5-2 seasons due to back surgery) from 2001-2005.

I'm not sure where st.johns is and don't recall if my roomate went to state tourneys or whatever so you may or may not have heard of him. he was undefeated as #1 singles for a D3 school in NY (undefeated in regular season play, not tourneys or whatever). feel free to PM me if you want his name to see if you know him.
01-19-2011 , 01:17 PM
GL GL
01-19-2011 , 01:48 PM
Im down to take tennis bets for the world series, no absurd numbers like 500-1k a match. im between a 5 and 5.5
01-19-2011 , 02:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2eazy
you should of def tried to push this bet as a 1 set winner takes alll,
Do you think his chances of winning a 1 set winner take all over a best of 3 are higher than the probability of a PA injury in a second set?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Howdoiplayxx
they should all be -3000 to be honest.....none of them will lose in 1st round ever probably...
Fed needed 5 sets today and said afterwards he got lucky.
01-19-2011 , 03:09 PM
i don't want to bet but will this be open to others to watch? this has the makings of a legendary bet if BA pulls it out
01-19-2011 , 04:06 PM
Simon was playing sick coming into the Aussie open and I think he actually has a winning record against Fed. This was not a lock.
01-19-2011 , 04:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2eazy
Im down to take tennis bets for the world series, no absurd numbers like 500-1k a match. im between a 5 and 5.5
If there was some fun tennis prop bets I would consider coming out for the series. I am game for singles, dubs., handicaps whatever.

      
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