10/20 NL. I have about 3,000 villain has 4,000. Villain is playing fairly tight. Not 3betting a lot of hands.

I raise UTG with Kh Jh to 60. Villain ( UTG + 1 ) reraises to 150. Person directly to his left calls. Folds to me and I call.

Flop ( 480 ) Qc Tc 5d. I check, V checks, person behind checks.
Turn ( 480 ) Qc Tc 5d 9d. I check, V bets 250, next player folds. I raise to 650. V tanks for a long time and then he calls.
River ( 1780 ) Qc Tc 5d 9d 2s.

What is your play on the river. I realize that a lot of people will recommend leading out on the turn. I think that's fine. I checked because I thought one of the 2 players would bet on a board that now has 2 flush draws and lots of straight draws.

Part of the reason I'm posting this is I'm trying to figure out what V range is when he plays exactly this way. How capped is his range? Should I be betting for value or inducing bluffs?

shove

no definitely don't do this..
so you got about 2200
given his line he has air so much that i'd be inclined to check..
i think he has air here at the very least 60-70% of the time

i might bet tiny to induce a shove but checking is probably slightly better than tiny bet

So funny. I posted a very similar hand in the low stakes forum. The actual hand I played was 2/3/5 where I had 700 and villain had 500. In the low stakes forum nobody said to check. In the actual hand, I tried to look as disgusted as possible and I made a big deal saying check and slamming the table. I acted like I was so pissed off that every one of my draws missed. He insta jammed but I never saw his hand. I turned over my hand too quickly and he mucked.

I agree completely to check. I checked because his range was heavily weighted towards AKdd, AKcc and JJ. Honestly I felt like his hand was face up. I thought that if I check the river my hand looks capped at 1 pair hands ( QJ, TJ ) or missed flush draws.

I think he played the hand quite well shoving the river. He bet about 300 into a pot that had 400 in a spot where I should be folding almost 100% of the time.

I guess you high stakes players really are better than the low stakes grinders

I'd bet for sure somewhere in the neighborhood of 1200-1300. Probably 1275.

That probably won't work as well above 2/5 but you never know (the acting job I mean)

haha, after all the acting ... I would say he didn't play the hand so well by shoving.

Congratulations on doing exactly what 99% of donks do that allows good players to beat them so consistently. Glad it worked out.

Threads like this make me say 'Is this what HSNL has become?'

Sad.

I think the hand depends a lot on the tank on the turn. How does this affect his range. If he just has weak SDV here then obv a bet is best. Don't know how often he shows up with air after checking flop and just calling a c/r. Think i like a bet because think he has more hands that call than bet. Yes he probably has some air that we get value from by checking but don't think he really has much that can call the bets river and can call a c/r so we are only looking to get 1 bet out of him anyway and think just a lead works better. In terms of sizing going small to induce seems to make sense to me, but depends on how often he bluff raises. Close spot, but i like a bet.

Correct. Bet calling air on the turn completely standard on this board.

kjs is a open utg???

Lol where does this # come from? At what point will this thread start to assess a range for a tighter player 3betting utg+1 and then betting turn on that board? What air does he have besides 2 combos of AJ suited and potentially AKdd? Because he's most likely cbetting AJdd On flop and def betting AJcc. He clearly has jacks here a lot or got creative pre with something like J10 K10 etc. none of which are likely to bet River. I'm betting 2/3 pot bc he knows that I know he's capped and I can rep more. He might level himself into a call

Big +1 here

yeah, he might check ak on that river for sure , going for a bet isn't bad

Weird, I'd be betting turn here 100%.

Given how wet the board is I don't want to give a free card and it's really nowhere certain that anyone bets on that board.

As played, I am surprised that everyone's happy with the turn check-raise size, or at least no one commented on it. I'd be much more inclined to raise to 850+.

I'm gonna work on this backwords,

River check is just absolutely bizarre, he's never bluffing an offsuit 2 - yes later you mention this was at micro live stakes where its w.e but if this was 5-10+ V's range has 0 flushdraws except for a very very few combos of DD which he probably bets OTF, and the straightdraws will have enough SDV to check, such as JT AJ JQ? i doubt he checks many of them OTF but JJ would be the only hand that he has here more often than not - Although he will never turn those hands into a bluff whether its AKdd AKcc JJ because they block all of your bluff raising combos, therefore you have a majority of value hands.

I think leading flop is interesting, hard to imagine V bet into 2 on a wet drawy board without a decent chunk of things, but sure check/call is okay too

Turn, is sort of ok - He will likely bet all of his gutters when checked to twice aswell has his middle pairs, and won't often fold to a checkraise, however the sizing is a little bizzarre - we should x/r turn to ~800 for the times we have a hand like Jxcc and we actually want some folds from him, at 650 we never get him to fold anything and let him see rivers for way too cheap and any club, K/J/8 is going to kill our action somewhat.

Also when we raise to ~800, our shove on the river will be slightly smaller than pot which is a better sizing whether for value or bluff.