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Originally Posted by Micturition Man
Couple of things to consider:
1. Variance is much higher for PLO than NL.
Yeah.. can't believe I ignored that. I was talking about NLHE.
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2. You have to factor in the rake cushion durrrr gets. By his wording you have to come out ahead after 40k hands, not just ahead of durrrr.
If a flop is seen in 75% of PLO hands, that means you have to effectively beat durrrr by ~$15k pre-rake, not by $1 or whatever.
I assume 75% is way too high for PLO, though I guess I really don't have any clue. In NLHE it's something like 20% of hands, so the rake cushion would be basically insignificant... just a few BBs at 200/400.
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3. When you model it make sure you factor in the total money durrrr wins when he wins and the total money he loses when he loses, not just the side bet.
Yeah.
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4. I don't think the endgame scenarios will skew the results that much. The endgame results can favor either side, so there will be a lot of canceling out.
Also for a radical adaption to be optimal one player would need to be hugely ahead in the first place, or there would have to be relatively few hands left.
Nah.. you're way off here. Durrrr's put up $1.5M. That's 37.5 buy-ins at 200/400. That's incredibly significant and that fact will dominate play in the endgame.
Obviously if his opponent is ever up enough to make folding into the money profitable, he'll just do that. But in addition to that, he'll just generally play tighter when he's ahead and looser when behind. Durrrr of course will follow the same strategy, but the fact that he's laying odds obv makes this stuff hurt him more than it hurts his opponent.