3/6: set vs possible flush on river, easy fold? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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3/6: set vs possible flush on river, easy fold?

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12-16-2009 , 07:57 PM

SirRaisealot

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 434

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $790.30
BB: $741.10
UTG: $319.90
UTG+1: $174.00
UTG+2: $318.00
MP1: $600.00
MP2: $847.40
Hero (CO): $753.15
BTN: $600.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is CO with 3

4 folds, MP2 calls $6, Hero raises to $24, 3 folds, MP2 calls $18

Flop: ($57.00) 3

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $67, MP2 calls $67

Turn: ($191.00) 9

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $240, MP2 calls $240

River: ($671.00) K

(2 players)
MP2 bets $516.40 all in, Hero requests TIME

villain was a random 38/2-donk, sat down a couple of hands (2 orbits max). before this one. just want to make sure that this is a trivial fold, because some part of me really wanted to call. i have about $420 left.

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12-16-2009 , 08:08 PM

sparky999

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,371

i think his aggression factor is more important than just he's a donk, i mean if u havent seen him do anything other than chk /call and now he open ships it, he def hasd a flush a high percentage, but if he is just terrible and has been barrelling and bluffing frequently then u can prob call

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12-16-2009 , 08:08 PM

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

is the converter fcked up or did you really overbet the flop and turn? Looks like a fold on the river

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12-16-2009 , 08:09 PM

ranka

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,496

Yeah, I think it's fold.

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12-16-2009 , 08:38 PM

Yugless

adept

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 999

meh ive been thinking about this spot lately and so many times i call here when the flush misses expecting to see a flush draw and they show something like A5o or some kind of pair+gutshot or even complete air. im like wow that guy repped the missed flush perfectly. i think calling may be more profitable

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12-16-2009 , 09:36 PM

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

maybe he thinks *you* can't have a flush so he decided to ship it with his 2 pr. I need a "little" more info to call (like any kind of minor read pointing to aggression). God! It annoys the hell out of me when people chase draws they are priced out of.

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12-16-2009 , 09:49 PM

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

I agree with Yugless. They show up with something nonsensical often enough to call here.

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12-17-2009 , 12:33 AM

Tokyo!!

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 11,154

i actually think its a folders here and i cant stop calling

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12-17-2009 , 03:19 AM

Delphi

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 618

when I call they always have it

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12-17-2009 , 03:42 AM

#10

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

is the converter fcked up or did you really overbet the flop and turn?

did no one else notice this? Or is overbetting the new standard line here

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12-17-2009 , 04:03 AM

#11

AllTheCheese

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 11,898

38/2 rarely folds pair + gutshot to less than all-in and he has that type of hand a TON on this board, so whatevs.

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12-17-2009 , 10:47 AM

#12

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

Quote:

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

did no one else notice this? Or is overbetting the new standard line here

I think vs the donk, he was trying to get it by the river.

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12-17-2009 , 11:20 AM

#13

jimmyvjv13

Life Grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,975

He has 67, call.

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12-17-2009 , 05:40 PM

#14

SirRaisealot

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 434

ok, here are the stats: 50 hands, 37/2 preflop, AF 1.1, WTSD 47. seemed to be passive. if i look at his stats in PT now, he has infinite river AF, but I have no idea how many hands this is based on. at that particular table, he checked the river with 2nd pair once and another time he bet 2/3 pot on a connected board first to act.

tuco, what's wrong with overbetting? the game is called no limit holdem for a reason...

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12-17-2009 , 07:03 PM

#15

loco

The First Golden

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,845

Can't fold here. Maybe if we get a sample with hundreds of hands and aggression factor of still only 1.0 then we can fold. But 50 hands from a 38/2 donk, can't fold. I don't think its even close. They show up here with 66, 88, and some random big clubs like AKcc. Not to mention once in a while when they show up with AA. Remember we raised preflop so donk puts on big cards. Probably thinks he is value betting AK,AA. They are donks, we can't figure out their thinking most of the time.

If he has the flush, we rule it a cooler and move on.

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12-17-2009 , 07:43 PM

#16

negipai98

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,758

I'm with ATC here...against a 38/2 I find this nearly impossible to fold getting like over 2.5:1 or something. As he said, he could have random two pair here and other such nonsense. I mean, yeah, you're going to see higher sets and rivered flushes here a bunch, but I think you'll see random crap enough to make this profitable, albeit not hugely so.

Don't think it is a trivial fold, though.

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12-17-2009 , 07:46 PM

#17

AlexB182

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 8,338

Quote:

Originally Posted by TucoRamirez

did no one else notice this? Or is overbetting the new standard line here

it's not standard but I really like it.

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12-17-2009 , 07:54 PM

#18

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirRaisealot

tuco, what's wrong with overbetting? the game is called no limit holdem for a reason...

I don't think there's anything wrong with it if you think they'll call with worse. I've just never implemented that into my game I guess.

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12-17-2009 , 08:15 PM

#19

sparky999

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,371

overbetting is the stone cold nuts vs fish

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12-18-2009 , 12:01 AM

#20

ranka

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 7,496

I agree that betting big vs fish is a very good and the most profitable play but it's quite impolite. Don't be so greedy, leave little bit to fish (and to others also). You know, think like fish - It's not nice to make new deposit after one hand.

Next time just slow down little bit before betting think little bit how big your next month expenses/bills are. If they are like $300, then try to get $300 not more, if less try to get even less. As I said, no need to be greedy, it's christmas time!

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12-18-2009 , 12:16 AM

#21

TucoRamirez

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,375

lol ^^^

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12-19-2009 , 01:40 PM

#22

GetHighRM125

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranka

I think if OP won this hand he should send some money back for the over betting. Like you said its christmas. Someones not getting a gift this year because OP was being greedy

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12-19-2009 , 09:38 PM

#23

pattay

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 6,306

****ing greedy bitches

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