Is This A Close Decision? - High Stakes Poker Pot Limit and No Limit

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Is This A Close Decision?

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02-13-2014 , 02:54 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

With a $1500 stack that is covered by everybody in a live 5-10 blind game with mediocre opponents, you pick up two kings on the button. Four limps to you. You are somehow sure that making it $60 will get exactly one call while making it $30 will get exactly five calls. Which play would tend, without further information, to have the higher long run EV?

02-13-2014 , 03:08 PM

rm81

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,621

one call is better against average players but if there are against horrible players you might want the 6 way flop but you are going to have to lay it down sometimes

02-13-2014 , 03:23 PM

Playthegameee

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 132

I'd take it heads up to the flop . Too many callers = too many hand ranges and combinations. Making it heads up makes ur chances of winning better, so why not ?

02-13-2014 , 03:33 PM

lnternet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 12,224

ignoring postflop play

6way, 40% equity in 185 pot, minus 30 invested, EV 44
2way, 78% equity in a 165 pot, minus 60 invested, EV 69

I don't have a good postflop approximation for 6way. But don't think it can be that much better than HU, so answer should be clearly the HU spot.

02-13-2014 , 04:00 PM

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

You'll be able to earn much more money on future streets in the hu pot. I wouldn't be surprised if getting 1 call is better than 5 even if you make it 60 in both cases.

02-13-2014 , 05:23 PM

WiltOnTilt

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 2,893

against tough online opponents (that somehow limped around :P) I'd rather have 1 opponent. against mediocre 5/10nl live players i'd rather have 5 calls.

I don't think converting equity into ev works here because the mediocre live players will make far worse mistakes and not always realize their equity yet we will very often realize ours (with position and presumably better hand reading skills) and be much less likely to make big mistakes.

02-13-2014 , 07:55 PM

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

Suppose you knew the flop would be Qd 5h 2h.

02-13-2014 , 10:24 PM

kutty

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,482

and the forth caller touches hit nose briefly and looks off to the left before checking

02-13-2014 , 11:35 PM

EmpireMaker2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 9,444

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Suppose you knew the flop would be Qd 5h 2h.

David is this hypothetical? Did you get stacked by 2-5 offsuit on this board?

02-14-2014 , 03:06 AM

#10

limon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 6,345

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiltOnTilt

I was invited to play in a private online "home" game with mediocre players...what should i do?

(I was thinking against mediocre players i would want 5 calls and against a tough lineup i would want heads up but the live online thing is obviously germane so i need help!)

02-14-2014 , 03:17 AM

#11

limon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 6,345

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

wait, what year is this? 2002 1 caller. now 5 callers.

02-14-2014 , 07:39 AM

#12

David Sklansky

Administrator

Join Date: Aug 2002 Posts: 17,075

Quote:

Originally Posted by EmpireMaker2

David is this hypothetical? Did you get stacked by 2-5 offsuit on this board?

No. Someone just asked me my opinion.

02-14-2014 , 01:18 PM

#13

vinivici9586

Breakfast?

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,602

Quote:

Originally Posted by lnternet

this is assuming we just run the board out. including postflop play would narrow the gap between 40 percent and 78 percent equity (since we cbet out backdoors, maybe gutters, weak pairs OTF).

so to answer david's question, yes, but in a vacuum still probably go with HU pot.

02-14-2014 , 04:03 PM

#14

WiltOnTilt

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 2,893

Quote:

Originally Posted by limon

the comment wasn't meant to be a slight against live players, simply that the tendencies of someone described as a mediocre live player are different than the tendencies of a mediocre online player...(similar for tough live vs tough online) especially for how it relates to their postflop thought processes. The generic labels just say more for how the default person with that label will tend to play their range and how self aware they are about that range.

02-16-2014 , 12:06 AM

#15

binkjobOBV

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 284

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Suppose you knew the flop would be Qd 5h 2h.

if this was the flop then id want the 6 players in. They all are likely to share eachothers outs.. and since they arent great players you could exploit their weaknesses on this board.

02-16-2014 , 01:23 AM

#16

limon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 6,345

Quote:

Originally Posted by WiltOnTilt

just f'n with u a little. sometimes i feel the online live shorthand is a bit lazy.

02-16-2014 , 07:28 PM

#17

lnternet

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 12,224

Quote:

Originally Posted by lnternet

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Suppose you knew the flop would be Qd 5h 2h.

on Q52f I get our equity
6way 42%
2way 81%

So both increase a bit, but stays extremely similar. 80% HU def plays better than 40% multiway, so here the case is clear that we prefer 2way.

02-17-2014 , 02:44 PM

#18

88keyz

adept

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,030

125

02-18-2014 , 12:45 AM

#19

mdelore

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 1,315

One caller in situation 1.

Knowledge of Q52, it's closer than people think (mediocre people play hands that will make 2p /sets and own you for the remaining 97bbs or spaz with big draws making u fold incorrectly) but I'd take on the 5 players.

02-18-2014 , 05:14 AM

#20

Muck_Faster

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 580

HU and not close for me.

Main reason is that I think sometimes we fold incorrectly in 6 way pot, if pot gets huge we lose a lot of the time if we call. People don't get as out of line in 6 way pots so I think we put ourselves in a really tough spot when it checks to us and we bet then get action...

HU raised is super easy because people spazz in raised pots way more often IMO, and a lot of the time our c bet wins an easy pot. We also get some big pots when our V flops worse and gets sticky, and we rarely get stacked.

Heads up = easier spots and higher EV long term.

02-18-2014 , 01:19 PM

#21

Seven7s

adept

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 910

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

Suppose you knew the flop would be Qd 5h 2h.

HU fo sho, too much reverse equity multiway. This flop maintains the preflop equities nearly identical as preflop, but KK simply gives up too much equity the more players enter the pot for too small of a price relatively to the HU situation.

This hypothetical is not even close. the HU situation is so much more profitable.

02-18-2014 , 06:28 PM

#22

BertMcgert

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 115

What are the odds that David Sklansky can beat 100NL online?

02-18-2014 , 08:51 PM

#23

BenT07891

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,641

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Sklansky

I'm going to simplify this problem and compare the EV it will be auto-checked down post flop. I'm going to use the %s someone used earlier.

"6way, 40% equity"
2way, 78% equity"

EV $60 = .78*$95 - .22*$60 = +$60.9

EV $30 = .4*$150 - .6*$30 = $60 - $18 = +$42

I chose $60 and 1 caller.

02-21-2014 , 01:37 AM

#24

UtahGambler1971

enthusiast

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 50

The more I think about this spot. The more I think that its not a close decision, but an intractable one. Even simplifying the preflop action, we need to simulate the actions and ranges of 5 players postflop with a multitude of different board textures and compare it to the actions of ranges of one player.

Also the equity approach is crummy. Kings wins more than 1 bb when minraised on the button preflop (.75*4bb - 2 = 1). My holdem manager database has Kings winning 3 big blinds in this spot. Postflop play and playability is worth $$$.