Not sure if HSNL is the right forum to post this in, if mods disagree move it to an appropriate forum please.

I had this idea a while ago but haven't been motivated to start a thread until today. The idea is basically to have ppl insure guys like me that can't afford to run a ton below AI-EV having the skill to play mid-/highstakes but not the bankroll to play the most +EV (often high variance) style in these games.

I am sure there is ppl out there (staking teams for example) that have the roll to gamble with edge

Example how such a deal could look like:

"horse" plays 50K hands insured.

- In case he runs above AI-Ev he pays 100% of what he ran above EV.

- In case he runs below Ev insurer pays 95% (obv that is a flexible number, just my guess for that hand-sample) of what horse ran under Ev.


Should be a win-win situation, right? Thoughts? Offers?

What happens in this situation.

Grinder plays 50k hands @ 5knl.
Grinder runs 100k above expected, but at the end of it is still down.

Does that mean grinder now loses whatever he lost (obv his own fault) and pays the 'insurance' of 100k?

Ofc he does!

He knew that befor he lost the moeny and if he can't afford that he shouldn't be playing 5knl in the first place or do it staked.


Edit:
I think it is clear to everyone that deals like this only work between ppl with many refs/ high reputation in which case problems like this should never arise

Edit2:
Your example seems very daunting while it is very unlikely for a winning player to play 50K hands, run 20stacks above EV and still be down. Much more likely scenario is to be up slightly less than what he ran over EV which isn't that big of a problem.

It's been thought of before, but there are too many ways to alter/shade your raw dollar vs EV results for this to be done seriously between two strangers.

Plenty of people do it with IRL friends (I used to) who plays higher than they do, though.

In case insurer starts mistrusting his horse for some resaon there is always an option to make sure he isn't manipulating HM/PT3 etc.

I play on stars atm, they offer an option to send an e-mail with all the HHs you played in the past x days.


Edit:
make transfering these e-mails on a regular basis part of the deal sounds like a reasonable option to me

No deal. But if you want I will take insurance on specific hands, say if you are all in on the flop or turn. This has to be done in real time, so it would be tricky... we could auto do it for any big pot if you want.

auto doing it for every big pot will have a very similar outcome like the deal I showed in my example (~90% of running under/over EV comes from big pots AI on turn or earlier, ~10% comes from small pots beeing AI on turn or earlier)

also it only works with a deal since "edge" changes with handsampel. My english is not that good but I hope you understand what I want to say. (in my example the deal is 95% insurance over 50K hands... a deal over 100K hands would have to be <95% to be "fair" or equal)

-> this results in a "one-hand-deal" to be more like 99.9x% which is probably not what you are looking for

Definitely not interested at 99.9%. Perhaps you should move down if you are concerned with variance; you are going to be alive for a very long time, no reason to conquer the world in one afternoon.

Anyway, how would it work in your example if you ran over all in EV? I would keep the white meat and you would get 95%?

Woah, it took as much as eight posts before the obligatory "move down" comment was made.

If I run over EV you get 100% of that amount from me

If I run under EV I get 95% of that ampount from you

What does white meat mean?

now that I did some math on it I feel like 90% seems like a more reasonable price over a 50K hand sample.

deal could look like this:

I am a 3/6 5/10 player mainly (sometimes shotting 10/20) plaiyng 6handed and full ring NLH

deal is over 50K hands

If I run 50K over EV I pay 50K to the insurer (no matter how much I actually won/lost)
If I run 50K under EV insurer pays me 45K

why dont you just apply BRM like every other player

if your scared about variance, play with 200-500 buyins online

problem sorted

you mean like play plo2000 HU with 10k roll?

sick advice broseph

and you would know my roll how? obviously a sick read as your 100% correct....

Soulcrushed!!!

because BRM is -EV for players clearly crushing a limit but running under EV for months.

oh, and there is ppl running 200+ BI under EV:

http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/1263/36023277.jpg

http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a1...LOinsanity.jpg

this is not me since I lost my database several times I can't post such a graph though I am sure I ran 150-200BI under EV aswell in 2011

I've had this idea for a while now. Maybe I'll get off my ass and actually do it at some point.

It's a lot more difficult to set up than you think, though, unless whoever runs it just feels like getting scammed all day.

Nice, that would be awesome!

agree on that though pokersite e-mailing HHs weekly or sth. should make it a safe thing if done right imo.

For some time now, I have thought about trying to create a website that would offer all in EV insurance with terms similar to those described by Nice_2_Beat_You. One problem I foresee is that smart users of the service could collude to cheat the system using the following trick:

Let's say three people (Players 1-3, all colluding) are playing 3 handed and only player 3 has signed up for the all in EV insurance. Players 1-3 can see each other's hole cards and are only playing to cheat the insurance. Player 1 folds A2. Player 2 and Player 3 get all in with XX and A5 respectively. Player 3 will run below his heads up expectation vs player 2 because player 1 folded blockers to player 3's hand. 3 cheating players could potentially rig numerous all ins until player 3 had run many thousands of dollars under EV. Does anyone have any ideas on how to combat this sort of cheating?

Let the HH's be sent to you.
If you see any unusual plays like this happening over and over again between the same players the collusion is pretty obvious.
Also write it down in the contract that they have to pay a high fee for such behaviour if detected.

I just did a quick simulation on propokertools: A5 vs 77
the difference in equity is 68.37% vs 74.23% (with a dead Ace), so about 6%.

I'm sure there are other blocking possibilities with bigger differences, but if you take let's say 5% or 6% commission it's going to be very tough to scam you, especially if you do some sort of hand history checking for irregularities (like the same 3 players playing for instance).

also you could start your service for heads-up players first.

or you could limit it to heads-up or >5 players where i imagine it being very hard to scam, considering the rake (at low to mid stakes) and the obvious collusion in high stakes due to the small player pool.

I don't think anyone would agree to a 5% commission per all in hand. I was thinking X% over a month period or something.

ooops, you're right, i didn't think that through - i agree the commission should be over a fixed period of time or number of hands or something.

what do you think about the other thing though, excluding 3 and 4 handed play it seems pretty hard to cheat you undetected, no?

i think the main problem would be people not able to pay their debt though.

oh and also, it's probably not that good a deal for the player because all-in EV is just a small part of variance imo.

Excluding short handed play would definitely be a good start. It would be very hard to cheat the insurance at a full handed table without playing very exploitably.

I'm not really sure how one would make players pay their debt. The profitability of this service relies on (almost) everyone paying their due.

If anyone is seriously considering trying to turn this into a business, please shoot me a PM. I have a strong background in stats and programming and would love to be on board.