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Old 06-29-2012, 02:43 PM   #31
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

the reason i like 3betting this opponent is that players from his generation (generally) are very bad at sizing 4bets/frequencies (too large, too rarely). i'd have a pretty aggressive 3betting strategy vs his 3x opens, and my perception of how he plays, turning as many borderline hands (A10o, KJo, some SCs) into 3bets as possible.
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Old 06-29-2012, 04:06 PM   #32
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Originally Posted by ike View Post
Why do people think this is a bad spot to bet big on the river? Also, why is everyone calling a bet of 1.05x pot an overbet?
Because in tournaments people never bet more than 1/3rd pot.
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Old 06-30-2012, 04:49 AM   #33
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Originally Posted by d2themfi View Post
I'm aware. Should be a very rare scenario where calling is better than 3betting vs a 3x.
Do you mean with ATo specifically or with any hand facing that open? Why do you think it's so difficult for call to be better than 3bet?
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Old 06-30-2012, 09:02 AM   #34
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Originally Posted by NLSoldier View Post
I know it's easy to say after the fact but when stinger takes that line and bets that big on the river I think there is 0.000% chance Andy is bluffing.
Agree, not much else to add. I don't think he has a thin value range at all either. Andy Bloch is not the type to try some super creative bluff in his biggest tournament of the year against a player he likely respects. Interesting hand.
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Old 06-30-2012, 09:44 AM   #35
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

I would certainly 3bet that hand 100% there i was wondering what was up with that too
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Old 06-30-2012, 10:34 AM   #36
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

When you're coming up with a river sizing here, finding a way to exploit both his c/c as well as his c/r frequencies isn't unachievable, and the more he c/r's river (prob not much but w/e) the more your bet should allow you to predict the frequency in which he bluffs.
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Old 06-30-2012, 10:50 AM   #37
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

As stated before, is Andy going to risk that many chips on a NLH hand? I feel he has a much stronger edge in the other games and thus is only check/shoving this river with hands that beat AT. Also curious why the big bet on the river and not a standard 2/3 pot size bet?
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Old 06-30-2012, 12:27 PM   #38
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Originally Posted by J_V View Post
Agree, not much else to add. I don't think he has a thin value range at all either. Andy Bloch is not the type to try some super creative bluff in his biggest tournament of the year against a player he likely respects. Interesting hand.
i agree
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Old 06-30-2012, 01:59 PM   #39
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Originally Posted by ike View Post
Do you mean with ATo specifically or with any hand facing that open? Why do you think it's so difficult for call to be better than 3bet?
ATo specifically in this particular situation with the ante involved. Pm'ed you about the other question
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Old 06-30-2012, 03:15 PM   #40
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

I like how you played the hand, though I check back the flop some decent % of the time. I like big river sizing, and now I think the river is honestly a really easy fold. There's just NO chance Andy Bloch is bluffing in this spot. Ever. Ever.
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Old 06-30-2012, 10:09 PM   #41
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

I think calling pre is my 3rd favorite option but I'm open to being swayed into calling given a few conditions. Flop/turn are pretty standard... and river I think is played pretty perfectly, given a fold. If he shows a bluff, I immediately drown myself in the Rio pool and let my stack blind out because I'll have lost my will to live.

Something pretty key (might have been mentioned, didn't read replies..) is that as much as he only has a bunch of flush combos.. it's still a healthy portion of his range given that he folds out a ton of stuff to your 2 barrels on that board.. he knows you're going to be betting river often and I'd think his turn calling range (that doesn't include spade draws) is pretty strong/tight/snug and I'd be surprised if he was thinking deep enough to turn strong 2-street bluff-catching hands into river CR-bluffs giving you infinity:1 to fold a straight.

Last edited by Lefort; 06-30-2012 at 10:14 PM.
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Old 06-30-2012, 11:03 PM   #42
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

I saw this hand in HSMTT, haha responses here are so much better (as expected.)

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Originally Posted by jij452 View Post
Well his hand (obv) looks a lot like AsJs (possibly Js9s Js8s altho less likely given his tighness pre and his river play).

Altho you're getting such a sick price here i'd say that him turning As with a pair into a bluff or CRAI worst for value doesn't make much sense given that your range is so polarized ;

It's pretty questionnable that he's even capable of doing such things.... Sure the guy is smart, but his NL game has to be a little rusty/old school....

Also given that his edge in this particular tourney doesn't come from NL and he's aware of it, the probably of him risking so much here with worst must be near 0%.

That said in play and tbh i'm pretty sure i'd puke/call/be mad at myself lol
Anyhow, all of this, except I don't love how you worded the second paragraph. But very well put to the rest of it.

Last edited by Andrew Boccia; 06-30-2012 at 11:11 PM.
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Old 07-01-2012, 05:01 AM   #43
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Big river sizing seems fine to me. You're not really looking to vb river super thin (or if you are, maybe you can have a smallbet range and a bigbet range).
In an 8game mix having balanced / unexploitable strategy seems irrelevant to me. You're certainly not going to be playing enough NLHE hands with AB that it's going to matter and you should certainly just be trying to maximize EV on this one hand.

With that said i definitely think you are going to get more river value with a smaller bet size and might actually induce some tight laydowns with the larger bet size. I think you will get many more hero calls by making a more reasonable bet. If you are going to bluff the river here i think the larger bet size has more merit since having a balanced range doesn't matter.

As played, i don't think AB is ever bluffing and you can safely fold (easier said than done getting that price)
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Old 07-02-2012, 11:06 PM   #44
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

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Also, why is everyone calling a bet of 1.05x pot an overbet?
B/c it's over the size of the pot.
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Old 07-03-2012, 12:15 PM   #45
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Re: 50k Players' Championship Bustout Hand

pretty sick but seems like a fold for 96 to win 524, maybe a more interesting question for everyone who said that though is whats the smallest reraise to which you still fold?
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