i think this is a real, real bad spot for a river overbet for value

Big river sizing seems fine to me. You're not really looking to vb river super thin (or if you are, maybe you can have a smallbet range and a bigbet range). He's risking about 250 to win about 300. You're in the top half of your range and ts is a decent blocker. Optimally speaking you should call. You lose to like 4-9 hands (accounting for your ts blocker): Almost certainly AJ, A7, J9, J8; possibly j7, 97, 87, 76, 75. If he does this most of the time he has exactly AsJx (2 combos) and never with anything else as a bluff, it's a clear call if we give him the narrow value range, close if we give him the loose one. Folding is pretty greedy and basically means you think Andy is just not capable of bluffing here, but that might be correct.

i think he thinks you're some sort of rungood ninja-wizard from your PLO PAD crushing (he was commentating), so i would be shocked if he puts a move on you basically ever here. it also generally doesn't seem like his style. i also think he can make hero folds vs. an overbet, so overall hate your river line. finally, i would probably 3bet pre rather than flat, but thats not a big deal, and i might be wrong on it.

Why do people think this is a bad spot to bet big on the river? Also, why is everyone calling a bet of 1.05x pot an overbet?

semantics. i wouldn't like a .95x psb either. i just think he's likely to err towards folding vs stinger based on how i think he perceives him.

I guess it depends on cash game vs. tournament game mentality, no? This is decent cash game play, and calling an all in bet is reasonable.

But why takes such an aggressive, pot committing betting line in this type of tournament against this opponent when you don't have the nuts? It's what I might do, perhaps, but I suck.

i guess i just don't really see andy bloch finding a call with worse on this river. yes i know how absurd that sounds, but i still think it's true. now that we should have less bluffs in our range since the flush got there i want to widen his ability to call with worse hands based on absolute hand strength, so i'd just bet half or two thirds of the pot to increase the chances we get looked up by two pair or even one pair.

I haven't played a hand of NL in a couple of years but I this is more of a call in PLO than it is in NL. try and throw your cards at his face if your aim is good

wonder if he even raises a lower flush than the NF here

well it's not just that imo

developping a proper strategy including big/over bets will make us more money in the long run no matter how Andy plays.

but given it's an 8game tourney, we'll play very few hands of NL with 100bb+, we'll never see the long run and won't have the time to establish the metagame we want

so vaccuum play is in order, betting 50-75%

yeah i said in the hsmtt thread i don't think he raises non nfd to our sizing

Mostly exploitative conjecture. Main theoretical argument might be there's not enough hands that prefer bluffing to balance an overbet. I think that presumes an incorrect flop betting range. You should be able to show up with enough bluffs to overbet and also use two or more bet sizes as you suggested.

I think preflop is poor as well (likely never better than 3betting, which may or may not be better than folding). I'd call river with Ts blocker.

I know it's easy to say after the fact but when stinger takes that line and bets that big on the river I think there is 0.000% chance Andy is bluffing.

This is pretty much how I see it. the only reason I can see to pot the river is to make it a slam dunk fold when you get shoved on.

700 ante!

I'm aware. Should be a very rare scenario where calling is better than 3betting vs a 3x.