Hey guys, haven't made a strategy post in eons but thought this hand was pretty interesting and obviously a tough blow to take for me. It's a tournament hand but played about 100bb deep.

Situation: Day 3 of WSOP 50k 8game Players' Championship. About 60 players left out of 108, 16 places pay. I have about 305k to start the hand. Villain is Andy Bloch who is near the chiplead with about 600k. I have never played with Andy live and not much online, my only real reads are that he has a tight image but is a super smart guy (MIT grad). I like my table and have been in a lot of pots early and feel quite comfortable.

Blind Level: 1500/3000 blinds, 700 ante. 8 handed, so preflop pot is 10.1k

Relevant History: This is the second hand of the NL round. On hand one Jon Spinks (British pro, no real reads, covers me) raised to 7k UTG, I 3bet to 21k on the button, he called. Flop QQ5r, check check. Turn Td putting out bdfd, he checks I bet 27k he calls. River 3, check check he shows 66 I muck.

The Hand: Folded to Andy in HJ, he makes it 9k. I have AcTs in CO and call. Everyone behind folds. Flop KsJc7d he checks, I bet 13k (~28k in pot), he calls. Turn Qs, he checks, I bet 42k, he calls. River 4s, he checks, I bet 145k into ~138k, he quickly goes allin. 96k more to me, ~524k in pot so I have to win ~15.5% of the time for a call to be neutral cEV.

I'll post all of my thoughts a bit later but want to start the discussion first. Looking forward to it, happy to discuss every street but I think flop and turn are pretty standard.

You should of bet folded the river.

If you think he's capable of doing this as a bluff call with a sad face, if not muck it.
I base this on live tells and feel.
I would never fold even the smallest flush though for that price.

Well his hand (obv) looks a lot like AsJs (possibly Js9s Js8s altho less likely given his tighness pre and his river play).

Altho you're getting such a sick price here i'd say that him turning As with a pair into a bluff or CRAI worst for value doesn't make much sense given that your range is so polarized ;

It's pretty questionnable that he's even capable of doing such things.... Sure the guy is smart, but his NL game has to be a little rusty/old school....

Also given that his edge in this particular tourney doesn't come from NL and he's aware of it, the probably of him risking so much here with worst must be near 0%.

That said in play and tbh i'm pretty sure i'd puke/call/be mad at myself lol

I love your overbet a lot in such a spot in a cash game, but I find it very questionnable in a tourney, especially with no previous history with villain.

what was your thinking behind overbetting the river?

AJss, A7ss, J9ss all make plenty of sense, and there are no real hands for him to bluff with. Turning AQ or AJ with As into a bluff here sounds pretty suicidal laying these odds.

he is never doing this with anything but a flush for value and it is very optimistic to think he would ever be bluffing here, let alone 15% of the time.

vs this kind of player I would definitely not call river.

lol

OTR you're good fairly close to 0% of the time

What was your reasoning for overbetting river to begin with? He just doesn't seem like the type to level himself into calling, and for sure not showing up with air. As OJ said, if there is one player that this is a fold, its against Bloch.

It's obviously a ****ty spot once have 500k+ with 96k behind to fold, but you're literally never good here imo. The more I think about it, the overbet seems pretty bad. I just feel like all the 2 pair hands we want to get called by are not calling, and tbh I don't even think bloch shoves J8ss on river, he probably flats.

Yea I was wondering about the overbet too. Seems like a good spot for a regular (2/3rd) pot sized bet. Esp vs a player like bloch. When he sees 2/3rd pot on river, I figure he does what he wanted to do (call) with all his 2pair, Kx, etc. When he sees the overbet, he might re-decide.

Unless you think he was planning on folding, which obv changes things.

Was there something dynamic based that made you decide to overbet river?

fwiw I doubt he is ever bluffing here, or if you had bet 85k on river.

yeah your posting game is off a bit given the spoilers in the thread title

Hahahaha this.. Thought the same thing..

The quick jam part really does make me think you are near 0% as well. Given the lack of Fold Equity even if he was going to get super creative I think it'd take him a small tank to put it together.

I haven't played Andy in years, and only know him a little bit.
But with my reads on his psyche, I agree with the overall consensus that he is very level 1 smart and overbetting and calling vs him seems bad.
Just listen to his PAD PLO week commentary, which I'm sure you did.