Matt,

I believe much of the flawed analysis in this thread is simply based on the fact that everyone knew from the get-go that Hero had AK here.

I've been thinking about this point of yours. I agree that many, including myself, may have been clouded by knowing what hero had...

but my earlier points about what he could have still stand. I suppose it is possible he is calling with a T hoping to hit 2 pair or trips/take it away from a weak king, and maybe is bluffing his missed T9 on the "scary" ace hoping his opponent has K weak kicker... yes it's possible, but unless he is calling with a lone T here, the analysis doesn't change much not knowing the strength of hero's hand, based on the texture of the board.

the analysis changes a ton, because multiple posters have said stuff like "Mahatma can put Hero on a hand like AK or a set here, so..."

Don't you know that online poker is rigged? Now we know who is behind the rigging, it's Mahatma. He knew that A was coming on the river and he knew that hero had AK....

Believe it or not, I have a crapload of exp playing Prahlad heads up at 10/25 nl and I am up against him. He pretty much bought my car for me.

The call on the river was a good call. Although the way he lead into you on the turn screams of jack queen or some sort of drawing hand.

The turn I stress has to be raised, and you still may induce him to go all in on the turn with his 7 out draw if you make a mini raise, but I think a bigger raise is the answer here.

When I played him, if I went all in on the turn I could almost 99% guarantee him calling me with any king on that board because I played him so aggressively b/c he knew I would make the same play with a flush or straight draw in certain situations.

If I was playing him heads up I would interpret his turn lead bet as some type of flush/ straight draw. The chances that he has my AK beat right there would probably be around 10%. If had a set he usually would go for a check raise although he obviously will vary his play. With a large number of hands that I have already beat that he would call my all in turn raise, makes raising big on the turn the correct play.
Its too dangerous to make a mini raise on the turn with the large number of drawing hands he could possibly have.

While I'm far from an expert, I'm going to paraphrase a quote by Ray Zee that goes something like this -- "you have a good hand, and good hands win pots".

-Doom

i hope "hat" reads this post

hell, this whole thread

you guys couldnt even beat him in a group, hes causing the expert posters to disagree completely, he deserves to take everyones money

id barely even bet on eld or kane v him HU, and theyve got it right

oh maybe also bet on Jesus if he still knows how to walk on water, err i mean get quads v the 2nd nuts

Do you think we would have had a much more productive discussion if the original post had been worded more like "here's the action, with what range do you call the river bet?" How do you think people would have responded?

how about a poll:

"Does MaMa have the nuts? YES * NO *"

To me the more interesting question about this hand is does Mahatma push on a blank river as well? Does he push on a Q or J (probably not)?

I'm curious what the OP thoughts were on Mahatma's turn bet and his decision to call rather than raise there. And then his thoughts regarding Mahatma's push on the river.

Probably a little tentative about the stop and go, figures he's way ahead or way behind, and if he's ahead let Mahatma bluff and see what he does on the river. Obviously, if Mahatma has a draw, there's a downside to this, and he hit his death card on the river.

CALL and bump

So your playing against mahatma has changed your view on this hand? Could you back that up with comparable hands?

Doesnt it still matter what gear he is in? To me, the board in this hand seems illogical to bluff the river on. Would you call his allin if the river hadnt improved your hand?

Marnix

i just wanted to bump this thread because i think it is really good, and i can now see where flynn and company are coming from having actually played in the game.

As this thread is bumped anyway I am going to comment on this.
Using your hand strength as a way to control how often we call as you put it is perfect way to do it and no better way exists. You can use any information your opponent is not aware of to randomize your plays against him.
In this example: you are aware of your hand range here and your opponent is aware of this too but he doesnt have any idea of what you actually have (in this range). Now using your cards is better than flipping coin for obvious reason : he may be doing sth stupid and you will catch more stupid things with stronger hands.
There is absolutely no way to abuse it. I think its pretty obvious after some thought but I am going to elaborate if needed.

Best wishes

to say your nearly certain prahlad has anything (including QJ) is not giving enough credit to someone who deserves a lot of credit. i think QJ is far and away the most likely hand but theres is still a fairly wide range of possibilities, although most of the others imo are bluffs. so really were right back to what KKF said. hes got the nuts or hes bluffing.
i think he has the nuts more often than he is bluffing. AK seems like what he would put the poster on and i dont see him trying to make him lay that down. therefore i think he is more likely to have QJ and wants a big call, thinking that if he has a weaker 1 pair type hand he wont call a pot size bet and if he has top 2 he may call for the whole his whole stack.
that said, prahlad is tricky, complex and who the hell knows. its still far from easy imho, and theres got to be a resonable chance that he has air.
matty

This would make sense if Mahatma got to read this thread while playing the hand.

Reading this thread makes you realise how thankful we should all be for having Diablo and Flynn post their thoughts in here.

Could you tell me from which book ? ty

Dr. Flynn is refering to this book , if I remember correctly.

I guess you shouldn't answer to threads this late, but who cares.
I think that one factor you have to weigh in is the fact that Mahatma on the river, holding xx, can be very sure that opp. does NOT have the nuts. Opp. would not cold call the turn bet with stacks that shallow.

Therefore he will, if the game is crazy enough, value bet many other hands. Sets and top two.

So - this is not a nuts/bluff situation, making a fold better.

Is the book worth bying? Looks interesting.

How would hero play JJ on the turn? Why can't the ace be a scarecard to bluff? Why is this such a horrible spot for Mahatma to bluff? Why does Hero has to have 2 pair+ on the river? Great thread, but these were the questions I had in my head when reading a lot of the fold answers.

If I'm "Hero", I insta-call here, no question.

2 things, though....
1. Mahatma is capable of tilting in a very very serious way. If you think he's far along on the tilt scale, you have to be more inclined to call.
2. Mahatma is smart and this play is very dependent on the opponent. If HEro has folded in a lot of similar spots, a push with nothing is more likely. Or, if Mahatma has overbet vs Hero with nuts in recent past, he'll be more inclined to do it with nothing.

What Shaniac says is absolutely right --- in general, against Mahatma, this is a call.

Hand #31223034-820 at Waterbury (No Limit Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 22/Apr/06 20:06:26

BellagioLee is at seat 0 with $3150.
Sharkman1951 is at seat 1 with $12284.
crazyalex is at seat 3 with $5935.50.
Mahatma is at seat 4 with $12441.50.
Brandon_Adams is at seat 5 with $40233.
The button is at seat 3.

Mahatma posts the small blind of $50.
Brandon_Adams posts the big blind of $100.

BellagioLee: -- --
Sharkman1951: -- --
crazyalex: -- --
Mahatma: -- --
Brandon_Adams: As Qd

Pre-flop:

BellagioLee folds. Sharkman1951 folds. crazyalex
folds. Mahatma calls. Brandon_Adams raises to $300.
Mahatma re-raises to $900. Brandon_Adams calls.

Flop (board: 3s 5h Qs):

Mahatma checks. Brandon_Adams checks.

Turn (board: 3s 5h Qs Ac):

Mahatma bets $1800. Brandon_Adams calls.

River (board: 3s 5h Qs Ac 8c):

Mahatma goes all-in for $9741.50. Brandon_Adams
calls.



Showdown:

Mahatma shows 7h 7d.
Mahatma has 7h 7d Qs Ac 8c: a pair of sevens.
Brandon_Adams shows As Qd.
Brandon_Adams has As Qd Qs Ac 8c: two pair, aces and queens.


Hand #31223034-820 Summary:

$2 is raked from a pot of $24883.
Brandon_Adams wins $24881 with two pair, aces and queens.