I must be an idiot then because I interpret your post as Hero called and I wanted to know if his hand was good, but I assume now he must have folded.

Nevermind, I see how I am scum, only compared to Krusty.

Haha, this is comical. No, I'm fairly certain that he meant by it 'would have been a good fold' that Hero called and lost.

Hero insta-called.

Mahatma shows Qd Jh.
Mahatma has Qd Jh Tc Kd As: straight, ace high.

2 is raked from a pot of $24119.
Mahatma wins $24117 with straight, ace high.

Hero leaves the table.

/not "Hero", just thought it was an interesting hand.

This and many responses in this thread vastly oversimplify the situation. If handreading were so straightforward in this game, it would be much easier.

OK.

Or this is two cards, putting the opponent on an auto-bet and looking to take it away later.

Mahatma could be betting with anything here, hoping Hero has something like 88 that he just followed through with on the flop. Hero can have anything he feels is likely to be better than what Mahatma has.

Mahtama can put Hero on a much wider range of hands, many of which hate that Ace. He might be thinking "no way he will fold against me" or he might be thinking "no way is this pussy going to call a huge bet with a straight now on the board." Again, if you can so easily read Hat's thought process here, you should run over this game SH.

I did not respond to this thread because I would have no idea what to do without knowing what gear Hat is in, what he thinks of Hero, whether Hero gets run over or makes bad calls, what has gone on in the last orbit/hour/day, and a multitude of other factors. One thing is for sure, there are definitely many situations when this is an insta-call for me vs. Mahatma. There are other situations in which I could fold this against him. Rhythm of the betting line is another factor worth taking into consideration here, at least to some degree.

Diablo,

If you had to guess, what would you say is the ratio of SR's bluff overbet/value bet overbet?

The statements you made can apply to almost any board, combination of action.

I have limited action/viewing in this game, but my guess is that people over estimate the amount of the time that SR is bluffing.

If I could guess that well, I would be playing him SH a lot. I don't.

They underestimate the % of time he is bluffing when he is in super-high gear. They overestimate the % of time he is really in super-high gear.

This is an excellent thread..............
It seems to be a bit "aftereventing" to post on here after the full results have been posted. But personally I think the main mistake in the hand was not to be more aggressive on the turn. If he has a set then so be it but anytime there is a draw on the board with prahlad I feel you have to go through with your hand. Rasing the full pot on the turn to his bet would have of course negated any tough river decision you faced.

Some great posts tho guys, an entertaining and insightful read.

Jez

(Some rambling ahead... )

Many times on such discussions the actual result means very little, but in this case I believe the result means almost absolutely nothing. What's more, I think it's even somewhat misleading, because obviously the OP wouldn't post this hand if Hero folded (I mean - since the OP isn't Hero, he wouldn't know that Hero folded AK, and that Mahatma had QJ, and if he was Hero and folded, he wouldn't have Mahatma hand to post [unless Mahatma shows...]), and OTOH, if Hero calls and Mahatma had air, still there's no special interest here, since "we know that Mahatma makes such moves". So this hand and its result were obviously posted because of some level of uniqueness it had. Maybe even high level. And clearly if something is unique, it's not representative, and therefore not helpful when discussing a situation in a gerenal way, like such situations are naturally discussed here.

So what we actually have here is a one time in which Mahatma hits the nuts, and _as expected_ plays it very strong on the river, against an "unlucky" opponent, who made a 15K call with his top 2 pair and lost. Was this a bad call? It isn't quite possible to say, and I actually don't think that in such a game vs. such an opponent it's really 100% about a "good" or "bad" call. Hero certainly has to call here some percentage of the time. How often exactly? it depends on so many factors. Surely I can't imagine this was a really bad call. However, I have a feeling there's a chance that Hero should call here somewhat less often than some very respected posters seem to suggest, due to different reasons.

There were some nice posts on this thread, IMO, regardless of the specific hand that in a vacuum is almost impossible to analyse in any meaningful way. One thing I'm thinking about with regard to such high-level poker, is that not only it's not about cards, it's not even strictly about "people". It's about something else, I don't quite have a name for it, maybe it's about "frequencies", or "randomized chip-capturing-opportunities" (it's different from what is sometimes said about tournaments, that they are "about situations").

I'm saying this because in my humble opinion most attepts on this thread to put Mahatma on a hand (and also to put him on what he puts Hero on) were very simplistic to say the least. If such a player's game on such a level could be reduced to such an analysis, and by that judging whether it's "a call or fold", it was a relatively easy game. Much much easier than it seems to me.

(Of course I don't play anywhere near those stakes, so these are only some thoughts of a "lurker").

after reading every post in this thread, I think I've reaffirmed my suspicion that high stakes shorthanded NL poker is very much like paper rock sissors.

Except the rock loses to everybody.

amaze.

loooooooool

LOLOL, I agree man, this stuff makes NO sense to me

relevance?

This is completely wrong.

The results mean everything here until someone can post a similar hand with a similar texture where he was bluffing. There is some excellent reasoning in this thread, and as eloquently stated, Mahatma would have to be a tard to push that river without at least a set given the previous streets and the texture of the board. Or to not push it with the nuts.