I must be an idiot then because I interpret your post as Hero called and I wanted to know if his hand was good, but I assume now he must have folded.

Nevermind, I see how I am scum, only compared to Krusty.

Haha, this is comical. No, I'm fairly certain that he meant by it 'would have been a good fold' that Hero called and lost.

Hero insta-called.

Mahatma shows Qd Jh.
Mahatma has Qd Jh Tc Kd As: straight, ace high.

2 is raked from a pot of $24119.
Mahatma wins $24117 with straight, ace high.

Hero leaves the table.

/not "Hero", just thought it was an interesting hand.

This and many responses in this thread vastly oversimplify the situation. If handreading were so straightforward in this game, it would be much easier.

OK.

Or this is two cards, putting the opponent on an auto-bet and looking to take it away later.

Mahatma could be betting with anything here, hoping Hero has something like 88 that he just followed through with on the flop. Hero can have anything he feels is likely to be better than what Mahatma has.

Mahtama can put Hero on a much wider range of hands, many of which hate that Ace. He might be thinking "no way he will fold against me" or he might be thinking "no way is this pussy going to call a huge bet with a straight now on the board." Again, if you can so easily read Hat's thought process here, you should run over this game SH.

I did not respond to this thread because I would have no idea what to do without knowing what gear Hat is in, what he thinks of Hero, whether Hero gets run over or makes bad calls, what has gone on in the last orbit/hour/day, and a multitude of other factors. One thing is for sure, there are definitely many situations when this is an insta-call for me vs. Mahatma. There are other situations in which I could fold this against him. Rhythm of the betting line is another factor worth taking into consideration here, at least to some degree.

Diablo,

If you had to guess, what would you say is the ratio of SR's bluff overbet/value bet overbet?

The statements you made can apply to almost any board, combination of action.

I have limited action/viewing in this game, but my guess is that people over estimate the amount of the time that SR is bluffing.

If I could guess that well, I would be playing him SH a lot. I don't.

They underestimate the % of time he is bluffing when he is in super-high gear. They overestimate the % of time he is really in super-high gear.

This is an excellent thread..............
It seems to be a bit "aftereventing" to post on here after the full results have been posted. But personally I think the main mistake in the hand was not to be more aggressive on the turn. If he has a set then so be it but anytime there is a draw on the board with prahlad I feel you have to go through with your hand. Rasing the full pot on the turn to his bet would have of course negated any tough river decision you faced.

Some great posts tho guys, an entertaining and insightful read.

Jez

(Some rambling ahead... )

Many times on such discussions the actual result means very little, but in this case I believe the result means almost absolutely nothing. What's more, I think it's even somewhat misleading, because obviously the OP wouldn't post this hand if Hero folded (I mean - since the OP isn't Hero, he wouldn't know that Hero folded AK, and that Mahatma had QJ, and if he was Hero and folded, he wouldn't have Mahatma hand to post [unless Mahatma shows...]), and OTOH, if Hero calls and Mahatma had air, still there's no special interest here, since "we know that Mahatma makes such moves". So this hand and its result were obviously posted because of some level of uniqueness it had. Maybe even high level. And clearly if something is unique, it's not representative, and therefore not helpful when discussing a situation in a gerenal way, like such situations are naturally discussed here.

So what we actually have here is a one time in which Mahatma hits the nuts, and _as expected_ plays it very strong on the river, against an "unlucky" opponent, who made a 15K call with his top 2 pair and lost. Was this a bad call? It isn't quite possible to say, and I actually don't think that in such a game vs. such an opponent it's really 100% about a "good" or "bad" call. Hero certainly has to call here some percentage of the time. How often exactly? it depends on so many factors. Surely I can't imagine this was a really bad call. However, I have a feeling there's a chance that Hero should call here somewhat less often than some very respected posters seem to suggest, due to different reasons.

There were some nice posts on this thread, IMO, regardless of the specific hand that in a vacuum is almost impossible to analyse in any meaningful way. One thing I'm thinking about with regard to such high-level poker, is that not only it's not about cards, it's not even strictly about "people". It's about something else, I don't quite have a name for it, maybe it's about "frequencies", or "randomized chip-capturing-opportunities" (it's different from what is sometimes said about tournaments, that they are "about situations").

I'm saying this because in my humble opinion most attepts on this thread to put Mahatma on a hand (and also to put him on what he puts Hero on) were very simplistic to say the least. If such a player's game on such a level could be reduced to such an analysis, and by that judging whether it's "a call or fold", it was a relatively easy game. Much much easier than it seems to me.

(Of course I don't play anywhere near those stakes, so these are only some thoughts of a "lurker").

after reading every post in this thread, I think I've reaffirmed my suspicion that high stakes shorthanded NL poker is very much like paper rock sissors.

Except the rock loses to everybody.

amaze.

loooooooool

LOLOL, I agree man, this stuff makes NO sense to me

relevance?

This is completely wrong.

The results mean everything here until someone can post a similar hand with a similar texture where he was bluffing. There is some excellent reasoning in this thread, and as eloquently stated, Mahatma would have to be a tard to push that river without at least a set given the previous streets and the texture of the board. Or to not push it with the nuts.

Do you even understand what you're saying here?

You're saying hero has a VERY EASY FOLD.

Do you actually believe than when a player like Mahatma pushes against you here (yes, on this very particular board and the exact action) for $15K into a $5k pot, you should simply make a VERY EASY FOLD?

Seriously, no offence, but I think you are way way off.

As to your point with regard to the results (i.e, "until someone can post a similar hand etc."), it is very problematic on many levels.

Ya, thats what I meant. Wasn't trying to give it away prematurely or anything, but as Im sure alot of people anticipated, Hero probably wasn't posting a hand where Mahatma bluffed all-in and he called w/top two and won, although I suppose he may have folded. It was QJ, by the way. Saw a similar hand tonight with Prah playing a guy HU in the 50/100. P makes it 300 preflop, opponent calls. Flop is 69T, Opp. checks P bets 600, call.
Turn is a low blank and it goes check check. River is a Jack no flush on board, opp. hesitates then checks, and Mahatma goes allin for 6K or so and his opponent insta-calls w/JJ. Mahatma shows KQo, so who gets away from this one .

Maybe this thinking is a bit too simple, but then again, this board is quite straight forward.

When the Ace rivers and mahatma pushes I would be very worried. Nowhere in the hand has Mahatma represented an Ace, yet he overbets the pot on the Ace river.

This is very likely to mean that he is looking for a call from a hand that either has improved with the Ace (AT, AK) or that still stands with the Ace (a set). From his perspective it is quite likely that hero holds such a hand (a set or a rivered two pair).

I think we can exclude AA/KK from Mahatma's range, while we can exclude AA from hero's range (it wouldnt arrive at river like that, KK maybe neither). PF action would indicate neither holds 24. This means Mahatma either has TT, 33 or QJ. Hero should only call KK, TT or QJ.

Before the river, Mahatma could be making a play on opponent, but the river is the worst for him to bluff, so I would think he hardly ever bluffs here.

Fold.

Marnix

EDIT
one other note: from mahatma's perspective, it is still possible that hero has only one pair on the river, but since one pair is hardly calling any bet here, he might as well push to extract as much value as possible from hands that will call any bet on this river. If he wants to make hero fold one pair, he can use another bet.

Here are the two hands when he had fallen down 50K to Mr Jones. These happened almost back to back. Obviously just two data points, we only see the ones that go to showdown, yada yada yada.

Hand 1
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $100 BB (2 handed) converter

Mahatma ($12051)
BB ($55070)

Preflop: Mahatma is Button with 8, 8.
Mahatma raises to $300, BB calls $200.

Flop: ($600) Q, J, 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $350, BB calls $350.

Turn: ($1300) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $600, BB calls $600.

River: ($2500) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $10801 (All-In), BB calls $10801.

Final Pot: $24102

Results in white below:
BB doesn't show.
Mahatma has 8h 8s (full house, eights full of queens).
Outcome: Mahatma wins $24102.

Hand 2
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $100 BB (2 handed) converter

Mahatma ($23951.50)
BB ($43168.50)

Preflop: Mahatma is Button with A, Q.
Mahatma raises to $300, BB calls $200.

Flop: ($600) 3, Q, T (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $600, BB calls $600.

Turn: ($1800) A (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $1800, BB calls $1800.

River: ($5400) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Mahatma bets $21251.5 (All-In), BB calls $21251.50.

Final Pot: $47903

Results in white below:
BB doesn't show.
Mahatma has Ah Qc (full house, queens full of aces).
Outcome: Mahatma wins $47903.

I have not played him in >3 months. Back in March I would peg it at >2:1 bluff: nuts but he throws in some medium two-pair kind of hands when he thinks you are weak but calling. You can get a sense of him if you play long enough, but he will get a good sense of you too.

The hand posted FELT like one of his uber-bluffs and fit that pattern. If he's got it, so what? In the long run I lose less than the folders.

Also, the correct answer to every no limit question is "it depends." Depends is a diaper for old people, often full of a huge load of *****. Enumerating degenerative cases sucks. If Mahatma hasn't been doing his overbet thing and is running in medium or low gear, yeah, you fold AK. Okee-dokee. But trying to run 5-10 longhanded logic against shorthanded aggressive play will get you broke.

In this hand, assuming there's not some overlay issue we're not privvy to that changes everything, Diablo has a draw or a medium hand or both on the turn. Opponent has at least a straight draw or two pair. The river bet is for real much more than not, straight being most likely, set or two pair with ace still possible. Diablo, unless he hit the straight, usually folds despite the "very aggressive," unless "very aggressive" means three-street aggressive, in which case Diablo might call with as little as two pair. Keep in mind the pot lays him 2:1. Please see pages 173-214 for a complete list of caveats and subcases.

Matt

Also interesting to think is what Mahatma would have done on other rivers.

This is speculation but I think he was pushing almost any river, except for maybe when the board paired on the river (although a T might give him an opportunity to bluff).

Hero would have a hard time calling a push if he didnt have a set or improved his one pair hand on river.

What wouldve happened if the river was 9? If mahatma would push any blank to make hero fold, the conclusion would be that he'd valuebet if a 9 rivered.

Marnix

I'm not saying this is an easy fold, I'm saying this a fold.

Sure, mahatma is a lag, and he could be bluffing. But that misses the point. Mahatma is intelligent, has to put hero on a big hand, and pushes on the one card that almost certainly IMPROVED hero's hand on a safe looking board. WTF does that? If this is a bluff, it's an incredibly stupid one, and the only possible rational is an image play(?). I've rarely seen good lags make stupid bluffs like this. I asked for hand histories because in the games 50/100 games I've watched, I've never seen a good lag make a river move like this without a huge hand or scare cards on the board. Have you?
I'm from small stakes and don't have a clue about most hands, but on the above I can't see anything else making sense to a good player, lag or not.

Call Chris Ferguson and have him bitch slap him again.

So now that we have established that lots of people here can put dead reads on Mahatma, the next is figuring out how to get you guys backers so you can break him....

3:2