Originally Posted by Stranger123

I'm pretty sure this thread will still be at the front page in late 2011. Classic!

Originally Posted by Nezzar

When hero calls 1700 on the turn what does mahatma think hero has?..
AK would be likely here i think. Maybe K-Q, K-J (or weaker), but isn´t better to make a reraise on turn in that case as to define his strenght (if mahatma calls hero is obviusly beat and can fold no matter what mahatma bets on the river but can get a check from tp or ak) and prevent mahatma from valuebetting the river and thus get a cheaper showdown? With A-K hero can call turn with the idea of calling a pottsize bet, raising a small bet (for value) or valuebetting a check on the river.

I assume mahatma knows this..

The other hands mahatma considers is K-10 and 10-10
If hero made a set of tens, then there is likely a raise on the turn from hero. (Or if mahatma makes these allin plays on river often a call would be better, but then the call on the river with ak would also be auotomatic. I´m assuming mahatma doesnt make the plays often enough).
Anyway these hands are far more less likely than A-K, K-Q, K-J. (And if mahatma holds Q-J it´s more likely for him to believe hero holds A-K)

I think ther´s a good chance mahatma interprets the turn call as A-K and with that in mind it´s hard to pull a big bluff. Is he capable of bluffing though he suspects u have A-K?

Conclusion: Mahatma has Q-J making a straight

Originally Posted by Alex Jacobs

you are not even trying to read him. you are just saying, my hand falls into the x% when i should call, i hope i win. he knows that you do this.

Originally Posted by RichGangi

Alex wins.

Epic thread obv.

Originally Posted by RichGangi

Come on, Mike. You're smarter than that.

Originally Posted by Alex Jacob

let me clarify my question. it seems like a lot of you are saying something like: well you have to call here because top two pair is such a strong hand and if you just fold top two pair when P pushes you will get run over. so in other words you are using the hand strength here as a way to control how often we call when P pushes the river. i.e. call with AK or better, that way we call him x% of the time, if we call less than x% P will abuse us.

i know you don't think you are doing this but i'm pretty sure you are. because if we had KQ i don't think you would all say oh easy call P is bluffing. and yet most of you would agree that the vast majority of the time, P has either less than KQ or greater than AK.

it seems to me that this is sort of a game-theoretic approach. i.e. x% is optimal for calling P river push, and so i will call with AK or better to get to that x%. the problem of course is every scenario is different. THIS is the kind of thinking that makes P so successful, not the guys who are saying to fold. because when you think like this you are giving up already. you are not even trying to read him. you are just saying, my hand falls into the x% when i should call, i hope i win. he knows that you do this.

and that's why the x% is not going to work out for you. it's gonna seem like you're getting unlucky but you're not. it is by design that a good chunk of your x% calls will be against the nuts.

Originally Posted by Michael DeMichele

You heard it from AJ and Rich; don't call with your strongest hands because your opponent knows you will do this. Instead, just know if he has the straight or not.