I did read some and although Alex Jacob, for instance, made some excellent points, there are way to many indicators that mahatma was far too wide open to fold top2 playing effectively 120BB...
What I don't understand about the comments to this hand is why noone mentioned that, were mahatma to play this specific line in unexploitable fashion, with the correct proportion of bluffs and strong hands, he would not have enough strong hands in all the other lines he takes to be balanced.
So if mahatma does this with alot of his QJ hands, he would have to balance with a ton of sets, which means he can't raise the flop with his sets in balanced fashion because he's saving too many of them to make this play on the turn, which means if this hand is the same except he raises flop, he is bluffing. If instead he calls flop and then he just calls turn, then you know he doesn't have a set and you can make big bluffs on the river.
Also, if QJ and sets is all he does this with on the turn, even if he does these in the correct frequencies to be unexploitable, then it makes river easy to play when an A or 9 hits cause you know he's got the straight or a set.
Last edited by Richard III; 03-31-2014 at 07:36 PM.
u invested 2500, and are facing a 10k river bet (OVERBET!).....get away. Sure you have top 2 pair, but on a board like this with a bet like that....seems like QJ - maybe,maybe a set.
Also think about how your opponent percieves your holdings. HE has to think your strong, so bluffing is out of the question. I mean what can your opponent put you on when you call turn - QJ, Ak, Kx. I mean if you had a set ud prob raise so....wud he really bluff there with lets say J 8, Q9, 10 9, or something irrelevant to the board. I doubt it. Seems like a play that wants to make your big hands pay him off, and pay him big. THis is prob never a value bet with a hand that loses to yours.
*Also, it depends on your history with your opponent, and how he perceives you at that time. Did he just lose a big pot, Did you? If you did, hes prob thinking your steaming and will pay him off, so this is never a bluff.
seems like the overbet is designed to only be called by a specific range of hands AA, AK, KK. If hero has KQ, he isn't going to call off with the A river so there are no implied odds to really betting river that make that turn donk money, when hero has AK however, the implied odds are so high that shoving is not only probably very +EV, but also is the only way to make that turn donk semi-bluff profitable as well. Nicely played.
In summary if he did have QJ and semi-bluffed turn he has to shove river regardless of the outcome. The fact that the river was one of his outs is a bonus. Hero either has the second nuts here with a set or two pair or has such a weak range that there isn't really a value sizing that villain really cares about.
Any thoughts on why he donked the turn? Maybe I'm too 50nl but I can't see why anyone would donk a turn unless they can rep it in their range but this turn or if it wets the board and this turn doesn't seem to do that.
Also, are there any other river cards he over shoves with besides the 9?