Nobody cares ayo, imo.

Why do you take part in this discussion if you don't have a clue?

Funny how you still get it right, though.

/thread

Sex change operations are not as far fetched as one might think. In fact, it's already happened in the professional tennis world. (Do a Google search or a Wikipedia inquiry on "Renee Richards" - I think that was the name "he" adopted once he became a woman.) "Renee" was quite controversial at the time. I seem to recall that "she" played against Chris Evert or Martina Navratolova at Wimbledon.

Former DJ

Lol @ poster mentioning Jennifer Tilly as 'poker pro'

Misguided notions about transgender people and the massive physical / psychological impact of sex change operations ITT.

I believe that Former DJ's comments do merit some consideration. I'm not sure what the exact numbers look like, but PokerStars has made some considerable efforts to increase participation by women in poker (albeit mostly in ladies-only events live and online).

From a purely numbers perspective, any increased participation by women in the WSOP ME should result in an increased likelihood that a woman will some day win it. The question is how to bridge the gap between participation by women in poker overall and participation by women in the WSOP ME. Is it Former DJ's marketing angle? Is it hotjenny's idea of ladies-only sats into the event?

IMO, the first step is to get ladies playing in more open events in general . . . Build up the bankroll and the experience to take a shot at a $10k buy-in tournament.

It's me.

Played in the main even in 2005 and busted out after getting KK cracked twice, next time I'm taking it down. Setting over/under at 2013, depending on satellites. Yeah baby, you heard it hear first, from the AAmaz0n!

FWIW I love Barbara Enright whom I busted out of the inaugural Battle of the Sexes at the Bike on the way to taking it down and Susie Issacs who finished 10th in the WSOP main event and that I broke out of the Commerce Ladies Dream weekend on the way to 2nd place. i consider both these ladies my friends and appreciate their friendship and support, as well as Linda Johnson, Jan Fisher, and so many others.

The media will make of this what it will. Yes, It's St Patricks day and I've had 3 Harps, 3 shots of Baileys and a couple car bombs like the good Irish/American lass that I am. Beannachtaí na Féile Pádraig roimh cách. A happy St. Patricks day to all!

I've made no secret of who I am and I have no shame. You can call me Kitten after Ste. Kitten or Kitchein.
Tiocfaidh ár lá and my day is coming as well,

Slainte'

Shauna

Grats on future main event victory and proper celebration of St. Patrick's Day

Obrestad

Shauna:

You've got the right "I can do it!" attitude - that's for sure. I'm probably going to put some money down on a prop bet for a lady player to final table the 2011 Main Event. I'm in the process of trying to figure out how "betting lines" work and what -200 and +400 mean with respect to proposition bets. Prop betting is a little different from pot odds, implied odds, and payoff odds. Also, I'm a bit "math challenged," but I'm working on it. (Thank God for Wikipedia!)

Anyway, the more ladies who enter the Main Event with your positive attitude, the better my chances of winning a bet. You go girl!!

Former DJ

True, but how many women played the Main Event in 1995? I would be very surprised if it were more than 5. The ratio of women to men has no doubt gone up since then, if only by a little. Mathematically, I think it's very likely we'll see a woman at the final table within the next 10 years.

does fossilman still post on here?

Dear jenium:

Keeping in mind the fact that I am very "mathematically challenged," I have been reading the Wikipedia page on Fixed-odds betting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-odds_betting

and trying to figure out what a good betting line would be for placing money on a lady player to final table the Main Event. I notice your conclusion that "on balance" it should be about even money. I just don't see how it can be even money. If we go with the American preference for bookmakers of setting "Moneyline" odds, then I would think the payoff odds should be considerably higher than +100 for even money. My (flawed?) thinking is that the moneyline odds should be much higher - like say +2,500 for a $2,500 payoff on a $100 wager - since I "guesstimate" that a woman player's chance of making the final table is something on the order of 24-to-1 against. Here is my reasoning.

Let's suppose that 8,000 players enter the Main Event. Let's also suppose that 1 of every 25 players who enter are women, so the ratio of male players to female players is 24:1. (Maybe somebody like hotjenny314 knows the exact numbers from last year and can give more precise ratios based on last year's numbers.) That ratio is heavily weighted in favor of the men. In fact, if my "guesstimates" are anywhere close to being accurate, the sheer numbers would suggest that the deck is stacked heavily against the women. OK, take 8,000 entrants, divide that number by 25, and what do you get? My calculation is 320 women entering the Main Event. (I have a feeling that number is too high. If fewer than 320 women enter the Main Event, then the "true odds" would be higher than what I'm guesstimating, but I'm going with 320 for the sake of argument.) The question then boils down to: What are the real odds that just one of those 320 women will survive down to the final nine players? I think the real odds are somewhere between 20-to-1 against and 24-to-1 against. Translated into moneyline odds, the betting line should be set at somewhere in the neighborhood of +2,000 to +2,500. (I have a sinking feeling that no bookmaker is going to offer a betting line that high on a woman final tabling the Main Event.)

Since my number, (i.e. +2,000 to +2,500), is considerably higher than your number, (i.e. +100), perhaps you can explain to me how my reasoning is flawed? I don't understand "advanced math," but it just seems to me that the payoff odds for a woman final tabling the Main Event should be a lot higher than even money. Considering the sheer numbers that a lady player will have to overcome, I would think that the betting line would have to be (at least) +2,000 to be a good bet. (I also have a suspicion that the oddsmakers will set the line at something like +1,000 which is a terrible number - unless you're the bookie setting the line!)

Former DJ

She's not saying that it's even odds that a woman makes the final table. She's trying to analyze whether the odds of a woman making it are a strict ratio of how many women are in the tournament, or if they are better or worse than that # would indicate.

Although your logic is technically off because if 1/25th of players are women, that means that women have a 1/25 chance of winning the whole thing, not of final tabling.

I'll let someone else explain that math, though. Or if they don't, I will later on.

He doesn't post strat any longer. He does occasionally post in NVG, the latest to comment on his leaving the PS family.

If I say me, does that make me entirely too pompous or just generally dellusional?

My 11 year old daughter (look out for Maddy from Australia) has already set her goals on being the first female Main Event champion. If you all could not win it before 2021 (when she is planning to win it. She'll also simultaneously break Joe Cada's record for youngest winner), it would be appreciated. Thank you.

Ok, I'll take 2nd, no problem
Glgl maddy

Your daughter is awesome! When I have kids, I hope they are like her!

Tried to find it, but failed, sorry. Interesting math, though! I read in NVG that the wynn is offering betting on who wins the wynn classic. I really think that more mainstream poker sports-betting will be available in the future on wagers like this.

Out of the 7,319 entrants, 216 were female, or just about 3%. The highest finishing woman finished 121st.

There's a lot of fun, mathy stuff that people can do with this, & that I might partake in sometime when I'm not at work

This thread is making me really want to play it again. I will footnote this bankroll spew in my spreadsheet with:
*fight for women's equality
...so I don't feel guilty about increasing my ABI 200% in one tourney.

Thanks TWSS!

troll post referencing variance hiccups

It will be a variance hiccup if you ever lose your virginity (w/o paying)

I actually agree with Bart. I was thinking those exact things as I read through the post.

(I probably would have said the don't have a clue thing differently, but I agree with its underlying meaning regarding how he thought Jennifer Tilly is one of the best poker players in the world when in actuality she is not good at poker. The second sentence references how his math shows there is a better than not chance of a woman winning the Main Event in the next 50 years and yet he concludes it won't happen.)

Probably the worst played hand ever on Poker After Dark by Tilly, in case you haven't seen it. (Ivey's face and Harman's look of digust make me LOL every single time.)