Pool for Mega Millions??? - Page 3 - That's What She Said! -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

eeezzzz · 03-28-2012, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirtydiana73

So why don't we do $5 for each person who wishes to get in. If we are lucky enough to win this thing(ONE TIME FROM EVERYONE!) I would like to have a lawyer claim it for us as a group and place it in a trust fund so the less people know the better. Watching and reading about the horror stories of lotto winners and talking to friends of mine who work in a bank told me this is the best route. If anyone has an issue with this please let me know. Also, I will email to those who are in this pictures of the tickets I have purchased so we can keep this off the pages if need be. Am I missing something else?

Contract would be equal share to everyone who purchases $5 of lotto tickets AND username is verified on this thread by me as well as Mods. Sound fair?

Sounds good to me.. I am ready to ship when everything is set up.

ChaosReigns · 03-29-2012, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirtydiana73

So why don't we do $5 for each person who wishes to get in. If we are lucky enough to win this thing(ONE TIME FROM EVERYONE!) I would like to have a lawyer claim it for us as a group and place it in a trust fund so the less people know the better. Watching and reading about the horror stories of lotto winners and talking to friends of mine who work in a bank told me this is the best route. If anyone has an issue with this please let me know. Also, I will email to those who are in this pictures of the tickets I have purchased so we can keep this off the pages if need be. Am I missing something else?

Contract would be equal share to everyone who purchases $5 of lotto tickets AND username is verified on this thread by me as well as Mods. Sound fair?

Whether you can do this (have an attorney claim it for the group) depends on the state where the tickets are purchased, I believe. Some states make people attend a press conference and some do not.

dirtydiana73 · 03-29-2012, 12:37 PM

OK, so my bank account on pay pal is not verified and might not be until Friday. This is very frustrating.

**JMurder3** · 03-29-2012, 01:22 PM

Here's the disclaimer I promised (if this actually does happen):

Quote:

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zachvac · 03-29-2012, 02:19 PM

Is this actually +ev? I know when it gets big if you won the jackpot no matter what if you won it's super +ev but does the fact that even if you run good enough to hit the jackpot you might have to split it make it -ev?

If it ends up being even close to +ev I'm interested, probably for $100-$200, although I'm not female. Also if you can't find someone else I can escrow/buy the tickets I have a pretty solid rep paid out 6 figures this summer my name is public (Zach Hall) and ton of people on 2p2 have met me in person/know a ton of info about me and stuff. I'd think if this were a TWSS pool you'd want someone from here doing that but given that it doesn't seem anyone is stepping forward I can do it if no one else wants to.

Also if you just want it to be a small thing I can understand too but if it ends up being +ev I'm thinking of trying to get a bunch of people in and buy a bunch and be getting like a thousand tickets. Thoughts?

tringlomane · 03-29-2012, 02:47 PM

On a small scale, it's not +EV due to taxes. If one, I repeat ONE person bought every combination and wrote off all the losers, then it could be +EV. If two people did it though, it would be -EV.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...ns-ev-1185932/

Edit: Now the est. jackpot is $540M vs. $500M yesterday ($389M vs $359M cash option). EV has definitely dropped since jackpot splitting is almost assured at this point. A chance of a rollover will now roughly be: 8.95%. A chance of a sole winner will be 21.6% and the chance of a jackpot split will be 69.4%.

Roush97 · 03-29-2012, 03:57 PM

I would be willing to paypal some money for this if gay guys are allowed to participate

MidyMat · 03-29-2012, 05:30 PM

I hope everyone wins...

Spoiler:

...just so I can read about the lawsuit(s) in NVG next week

I already have my tickets.
hahahaha

zachvac · 03-29-2012, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tringlomane

On a small scale, it's not +EV due to taxes. If one, I repeat ONE person bought every combination and wrote off all the losers, then it could be +EV. If two people did it though, it would be -EV.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...ns-ev-1185932/

Edit: Now the est. jackpot is $540M vs. $500M yesterday ($389M vs $359M cash option). EV has definitely dropped since jackpot splitting is almost assured at this point. A chance of a rollover will now roughly be: 8.95%. A chance of a sole winner will be 21.6% and the chance of a jackpot split will be 69.4%.

Thanks. So assuming your math is right, 1/176000000*(0.216*540000000+.694*270000000) = 1.72738636. Obviously the jackpot will occasionally be split 3+ ways as well, but I also haven't accounted for the small prizes yet but I can't imagine the number being lower than 1.

That said I'm definitely doing a 2p2 one, I think I'm going to try to get exactly 1000 tickets so each $1 put into the pool will get 0.1% of the total payout, pm me if interested.

dirtydiana73 · 03-29-2012, 07:47 PM

FYI, every single combination has been played. There will be a winner for sure.

I will try to have pay pal verify my bank by tonight. If not I can't do it.

zachvac · 03-29-2012, 08:01 PM

My pool's sold out now.

AAmaz0n · 03-29-2012, 08:36 PM

I have Pay Pal and can buy the tickets if you want.

Shauna

BenderB · 03-29-2012, 08:46 PM

I'll paypal $5-$10 if someone is still doing this.

RedYeti · 03-29-2012, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirtydiana73

FYI, every single combination has been played. There will be a winner for sure.

I will try to have pay pal verify my bank by tonight. If not I can't do it.

How did you figure this out?

tringlomane · 03-30-2012, 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirtydiana73

FYI, every single combination has been played. There will be a winner for sure.

I will try to have pay pal verify my bank by tonight. If not I can't do it.

There was an official notice of this? I doubt officials would publicly announce this.

$500M in sales <> Every combination played

(175711535/175711536)^500M = 0.0581 = 5.81% chance winning numbers not bought.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zachvac

Thanks. So assuming your math is right, 1/176000000*(0.216*540000000+.694*270000000) = 1.72738636. Obviously the jackpot will occasionally be split 3+ ways as well, but I also haven't accounted for the small prizes yet but I can't imagine the number being lower than 1.

That said I'm definitely doing a 2p2 one, I think I'm going to try to get exactly 1000 tickets so each $1 put into the pool will get 0.1% of the total payout, pm me if interested.

Actually the jackpot split probabilities are worse than that (based on $540M est jackpot) because

2 winners = 26.1%
3 winners = 20.1%
4 winners = 12.1%
5 winners = 6.1%
6 winners = 2.46%
etc...

Also for EV calculations you can't use the annuity jackpot value. You need to use the cash value.

After taxes, this draw is -EV, but it's pretty close to neutral.