The sig other and I got into a discussion tonight re: WSOP open event women bracelet winners. This was prompted by a post by Todd Terry in MTTc re: Brandon Adams bet at even money that a women *would* win an open event bracelet this year. (See post here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...&postcount=175)
My initial reaction was that Brandon was likely on the wrong side of the bet given the historical performance of women in WSOP open events, but being the analytical geek that I am, I decided to crunch some numbers. (My hunch was based on a conversation I had with Short-Stacked Shamus last year about women winners in WSOP open events and his analysis thereof, which can be found here:
http://hardboiledpoker.blogspot.com/...-and-wsop.html)
The list of WSOP open event women winners in the past 7 years (post-Moneymaker boom) is as follows:
Cyndy Violette (2004, $2,000 Seven-Card Stud/8)
Kathy Liebert (2004, $1,500 Limit HE Shootout)
Annie Duke (2004, $1,500 Omaha/8)
Katja Thater (2007, $1,500 Razz)
Annette Obrestad (2007, WSOP-E Main Event)
Vanessa Selbst (2008, $1,500 PLO)
(Sources: WSOP Media Guide, which can be found here -
http://www.wsop.com/2011/2011-WSOP-Media-Guide.pdf and Short-Stacked Shamus' blog)
The total number of open event bracelets in the past 7 years (including WSOP-E) is 342.
The tricky part to the analysis is understanding how women's performance in WSOP open events compares to their % representation in open event fields.
If you make a general assumption about the % participation of women and assume equivalent skill sets, then the number of bracelets that women should have won in that time period based on % participation alone should be as follows:
2% - 6.84
3% - 10.26
4% - 13.68
5% - 17.1
If you use a very conservative estimate of women % participation, then it appears that women have been winning open event bracelets at a rate that is only slightly lower when compared to their % participation - 6 bracelets won when math would indicate 6.84 bracelets won assuming 2% participation.
If you assume a 2% participation rate in this year's WSOP, then women should theoretically win 1.2 bracelets based on the 2011 60-event schedule (55 WSOP and 5 WSOP-E). If you assume a 3% participation rate in this year's WSOP, then women should theoretically win 1.8 bracelets.
Once you factor in a potential increase in women's participation in WSOP events this year (tough to say based on overall increases in women's participation in poker + Black Friday), the increase in major wins in recent history from top female pros such as Vanessa Selbst, Liv Boeree, and Annette Obrestad, and the increase of other rising female stars such as Sandra Naujoks, Victoria Coren, and Xuan Liu, do you think that women have a better chance of winning a bracelet this year although there has been a lack of women open event bracelet winners in the past few years?
The downside, however, is that the smaller field events (high buy-ins or non-NLH events) tend to have a much lower % of woman participants. Based on the various WSOP prop pools discussed these days, people tend to value players who are strong in non-NLH big buy-in events as more likely to assist in final table / bracelet props.
Based on my analysis, I haven't decided if I still believe that Brandon Adams is on the bad side of his prop bet - I think it's very close.