The EV software available uses ICM which is fine for multiplayer situations but it isn't the greatest method for doing heads up luck. Simple example, I grind a guy down to 1bb and I have 49bb. We get all in as a flip and I lose the flip. I'm only out .5bb and 1% of the prize pool by ICM when in reality if I win that flip I win the whole prize pool so should be out 50% of the prize pool. I hope that makes sense. I might look into altering Juk's but not sure how much effort would be required yet.
Wrong DUCY?
Spoiler:
You lose the flip but are still a 96% favourite to win the match
You lose the flip but are still a 96% favourite to win the match
I'll expand further. It's a little extreme but it helps illustrate. My opponent either steals blinds or I get all in drawing dead for the rest of the match (after the flop or something). He wins with me gaining no more equity from all ins. Now my luck EV says I only deserved that 1% EV from the first all in. He obviously deserved to win the match then right?
I'll expand further. It's a little extreme but it helps illustrate. My opponent either steals blinds or I get all in drawing dead for the rest of the match (after the flop or something). He wins with me gaining no more equity from all ins. Now my luck EV says I only deserved that 1% EV from the first all in. He obviously deserved to win the match then right?
If you're a good player than you'll start getting into situations where you're ahead or at least calling correctly and not drawing dead so your AIEV will balance out and start going up. It does not account for non-AI pots, so you can have an upwards AIEV line and still be a losing player
If you're a good player than you'll start getting into situations where you're ahead or at least calling correctly and not drawing dead so your AIEV will balance out and start going up. It does not account for non-AI pots, so you can have an upwards AIEV line and still be a losing player
I'm just trying to point out that the AIEV is not the end all be all yet comparing it to actual results and trying to use it to determine if you are a winning player makes it seem like it is all that matters.
Well AIEV defo not the whole game, but it is one part of the game. In superturbos stax are small so AI situations are more frequent than in turbos or regspeeds. Also, if you have a negative AIEV over a significant sample that means you're doing something wrong in AI pots and that there is room for improvement in your play.
The EV software available uses ICM which is fine for multiplayer situations but it isn't the greatest method for doing heads up luck. Simple example, I grind a guy down to 1bb and I have 49bb. We get all in as a flip and I lose the flip. I'm only out .5bb and 1% of the prize pool by ICM when in reality if I win that flip I win the whole prize pool so should be out 50% of the prize pool. I hope that makes sense. I might look into altering Juk's but not sure how much effort would be required yet.
The software's perspective is right, very silly to think losing 1% of chips in play is losing 50% of prize pool in EV
Also, if you have a negative AIEV over a significant sample that means you're doing something wrong in AI pots and that there is room for improvement in your play.
lol?
how can you improve your allin luck?
to clear the carma and just start running hot?
ahhh
but how can we see our allin equity? its too complicated to use correct kind of filters in HM, like allin preflop=true, allin flop=true.... etc?
The program I use only considers cEV of all-in pots so there, but for HEM users their line is an even better estimation of "am I playing well" because it takes into account whether you're winning lots of pots without showdown too. If your expectation isn't positive in HEM/your program that says a lot.
Two Plus Two
Re: superturbo HUsngs on ftp
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