Re: sick top pair fold on river. after a lot of action
^ this
Also as played, I find that blocker/raise is the nuts 99% of the time... just my personal experience. There just aren't many logical progressions(even poor logic) that lead to people taking this line with a bluff/worse I guess
Re: sick top pair fold on river. after a lot of action
Grunch.
That you do not have a single read by 40/80 is not good.
I like your play just fine until we get to the river. You say you're raising to extract but that seems unlikely.
I'm going to assume that villain flats pp below 88, Ax, broadways, connectors, middling suited gappers. Like 40%.
OTF, the bet sizing doesn't tell us much without reads, might be a weak stab, might be value, I usually find that preflop flats followed by flop donks is weak. But again, minus reads, who knows?
You raise, villain flats. I'd say villain is doing this with a strong 2x or better, maybe a few gutshot straight draws, so 120 hands.
I think the raise OTF is completely fine, sure you're folding out worse but you're folding out hands that have equity and that's not so bad. Problem is, this range that's calling has like 70% equity vs. your hand so once you're flatted, I think you need to proceed cautiously and getting more money into the pot is a Bad Idea.
I'm not sure turn tells us much at all, could be a bluffy player trying to rep a "I'm willing to call your raise and still lead into you" sort of line. You flat.
Now comes the river and we can't say much except that it is a villain who is willing to push forward on three streets, maybe trying to control the pot a bit, maybe trying to buy it cheap, maybe this means villain is strong as hell.
You're 55% vs. the range I posited calls your flop 2b. Villain bets, you raise.
How much FE do you have? I think you're folding out, on average, some 2x and no 3x but that doesn't much matter since 3x and 2x comprise so little of villain's range.
Once those hands are excluded, everything left (~97 hands) is calling and you're 50/50 vs. that range.
Meaning there's no value to be had.
Worse, about half of them are going to reraise you so that half the time your play is net -t350. So when you're called you're not making any money on your (perceived) thin value bet and when you're raised you lose 100% of your equity in the pot, which was a substantial 50% before your raise.