Had played a few games vs villain. He'd called 3 streets with midpair before, but it was one of our first hands. Overall he seems really stationy and doesnt like to fold to cbets in general. Also doesnt fold to pfr so on a wide range of hands here. Hadnt seen him show too much aggression except with nuts so dont expect him to raise light.

Strong enough hand for a value bet?

I like betting small here. Something like 250-350.

+1

+2, pretty standard value bet vs loose passive.

gl

assuming he never check calls two streets w/ a weak ace or a monster, i think you can safely bet small on river and fold to any raise

if not, i'd probably check behind.

standard line: Flop:bet as semibluff
Turn: Check for pot control/equity value
River: bet, thin value vs 7X,6X,2X, and bluffcatching PP handrange
i would check turn, since all spade flush draw that villain might have is behind equity wise vs your pair+FD combodraw hand range. you have implied odds vs AX if u hit river, thus maximizing profit...

if indeed villain has 7X or 2X, there only drawing to 4 outs, due to reverse implied odds of hitting a spade....
check turn is also for deception/ pot control vs villains range...
river is clearly value spot, since how passive villain played on all 3-streets

Terrible. You lose WAY to much value with your super strong hand here. ESPECIALLY vs a fishy station. he will have stuff like 89 in his range here, or 42ss. I would actually bet turn a bit bigger so you can shove river if you improve. like 250 or so.

It would be interesting to compare the same hand vs thinking reg.
Do you still bet 250?
Seems a good spot to overbet OTR vs his bluffcatchers.

gl

overbet?

Why not? overbet jam, he has always a bluffcatcher here and we force him to put a lot of money in the pot to bluffcatch. Don't you think so?

gl

everytime i try that it doesn't seem to work @ overbetting vs regs

I like overbetting in general, but I don't think we get enough calls in this spot.

i can see ur reasoning on betting turn..
the reason why i would check turn, is to minimize my losses if in fact villain does have AX in this situation...
my analysis is more situational. even if villain is a station, doesnt mean he wont check call u 3-streets with AX??
the value i sacrifice for not betting turn, is reciprocal to the net loss i minimize if villain had AX,2-pair,sets.....

sets? this isn't full ring cashgame, we're 25bb deep in a husng.