Sorry Im a bit late with it It shouldve gone up yesterday but due to issues with comp & camtasia i couldnt get around to it!

Enjoy



Watch in HD, and discuss!

I'll comment on some of the hands.

@ 1:25 - My reasons for barreling turn small there were that he seemed pretty weak when he just called that flop and I had my flushdraw to continue betting. You suggested checking back on the turn, but I'm not sure if that's the best play. If I checked back the chance of winning the hand by hitting a flush is about 20%, right? A queen probably would've been good too, so let's say we win the hand on 25% of all rivers.

By barreling turn small (and setting up a river jam) I think I fold out like everything he has at that point. I'm excluding Kx and flushes from his range on the turn, because he most likely raises those on the flop, but maybe this is wrong thinking. If it were true - which I thought at the time -, then his range is pretty weak and can be barreled against profitably.

So basically I thought that barreling/semi-bluffing the turn (with the intention of shoving river) outweighed the option of checking back and be good around 25% (?).



@ 9:38 - First thing I want to say is that T7o probably would be the bottom of my limp/raising range, but you're probably right that it's too junky. At the time I thought he was pretty tight and would either give up preflop, or postflop on dry flops.

Then the hand itself: I think betting flop small is mandatory. He doesn't have an ace most likely, so on this flop I was planning on barreling again. He does indeed flat and the turn is a jack. I put him on Kx, 2x and something like JT. Vs given range I thought turn was an easy barrel, because of his rather weak range and my super strong perceived range. River was pretty bad obviously, and I was really not sure whether to give up or shove. In the end I decided to shove, which worked well, but I'm not sure if it was the right decision.

Oh btw, thanks again for doing this. Really nice of you.

ill re-respond at this

@1:25

I agree on bet folding the turn small but ONLY if u plan to barrel the river a v high % of the time.

Because on the turn you shouldnt expect many folds vs a t60 bet, thats why id either go bigger on turn or bet the turn the right size so u have around a PSB on the river left to stick it in, so ur actually valuebetting the turn to take down a big pot on the river and so your line makes more sense.

I do think that checking the turn is better then betting the turn small and NOT barelling the river but if u intended on barreling a high% then u definitely want him to come along on the turn vs a small bet and fold to a river jam and then this indeed might be most +EV

the (and setting up a river jam) is the most important thing here imo!
i dont think its wrong to exclude Kx and flushes.

But my main point was IF your barreling you have to tripple barrel there. Perhaps i worded it a little poorly in the vid :P

@9:38 I definitely think it is to wide.

I agree the flop bet is mandatory and a small one as well given what weve seen (havent seen: he plays back more at small bets).

I also agree that he doesnt have an Ace most likely and that his range is probably weak and your perceived is superstrong.

However you should imo try and think about what cards to come and how many handcombos improve his range etc.

I advise here to check the turn rather then barrel it, because the turn puts out a ****TON of draws on the board that are well within his range (one spade card draws, and obv straightdraws) on top of that Jx as well pretty hugely in his range, so your turn bet in itself will almost never be profitable because u will get called fairly often on that particular turn.

Because it improves his range so much, on top of that we dont know what river cards are good for our hand and which ones we should jam on because of how inaccurately we can determine his range here once he just flats the turn, all we really know is he doesnt have Ax (most likely) or a flush.
And still i have seen people limp call A2o etc and then trap me like this without any history.


So im not a big fan of making the river Jam, and if we are not going to make the river jam, then we shouldnt be barreling turn because the turn is a card which improves his range much and he can call at least one street (the turn) more often with his given range.

The question here imo is, Yes his range is weak yes our perceived is strong (not that silverstar thinks about it but.. ) however can his overall range continue vs a small turn bet on the Js and how much does the Js improve his overall range, imo the answer is it improves his range alot and allows him to "peel" one more street with a vast majority of hands he could possibly hold, which makes me reluctant to bet the turn if im NOT betting the river (and as i said im not a big fan of the river bet here hence id give up after he flats the flop at least untill i have some more reads :P)

Does that make sense?

(maybe i just play too cautios vs unknowns tho :P )

bump

Thanks JTS, this makes me feel much better about my (eventual) move to the 30s

Thx for doing this JTS! Won't create much strat discussion from me though; I think your reasoning is spot on

nice video jts. i agree with basically everything besides the very first hand, T8o.
when people check back A high boards you have like 5% FE on the turn imo. like you said, their range is mostly 7x,3x and K high, but also some Ax hands, though less likely because of the flushdraw.

i use the same argument you used in the T7o hand: i don't like bluffing the turn if it is only profitable with a subsequent riverbet. and this turnbet in itself is definitely -EV. plus, people tend to calldown any pair once they checked back the flop, i saw it a multitude of times now, villain snapping my big turn and riverbets with 3rd pair when the flush hits and i represent all types of monsters.

i think c/f turn should be much better than barrelling, especially readless.

Yeah ohly its pretty interesting imo that hand is very silimair to the T7o hand

and i definitely agree on the fact that the turn in the T8o hand is a -EV bet, its so -EV ainec on that board :P

But I believe that on this board there will be MUCH more (often) and better river cards for us to realistically and sensibly barrel again then there are good rivers on the board when we have T7o hand

so i like this hand better then the T7o barreling

but yeh, maybe you are right and c/f is better

i dont have any statistical evidence for eitherway, its a pretty unique spot (and one i dont usually get into that often because of my non stabbing here quite often).
But im somewhat reluctant to believe in "i saw it a multitude of times now, villain snapping my big turn and riverbets with 3rd pair when the flush hits and i represent all types of monsters." might be selective memory (Ya damn mind playin trixxx) or sometimes ull just run into a calling station and it sucks

but im not sure if those are solid arguments for c/f the turn, altho i have to say theres a good chance your right tho...

@t8o In theory its an easy checkfold given that his range is way stronger than our range and betting this hand withouth much equity would imply that we would lead a large percentage of the time here which cant be good. Although he probably makes a mistake by checking his 7x/3xk/x behind i dont think the best way of exploiting that mistake is by trying to bluf him off that range. (Just be happy with the free equity he gives you instead of voluntarily putting more money in the pot with weak holdings when he just told you there is no complete air in his range anymore ) . I agree on betting this river once we bet turn though because its an overcard to his pairs en we rep flushes.

@q6d I think barreling small and jamming river is fine, and i like betting smaller on the turn more then betting bigger, the thing is we have good equity (overcard+fd that are both good most of the time) so the downside of betting here is that we can get jammed on which would really suck with the hand that we have because we want to realize our equity. I think he is more inclined to jam/fold to a bigger bet(In which case we would prefer to have our blufrange consist of hands withouth much equity because betting with equity would be a waste) and flat to a smaller bet(Which would make bluffing this hand fine with the plan to jam any river except for maybe a 8 or t).

I agree with most of the other hands

-99784, with A3s

I'm leading that river rather than x/f as you suggest. We can rep 9x, str., 8x, really anything on that board, his betting sequence indicates he's likely got air at this point, maybe 7x, and even that would fold to a good river bet of like 100.

@9:38 the T7o hand, you say he's unlikely to just call the flop with a fd. But would it be that horrible of a play for him to do this IP with Txss or Jxss after Herk raised pre? Since the majority of Herk's range there is high cards, isn't just calling with the fd IP better after the small flop bet?

Thank you for the videos.

1:44: I like his turn barrel w/ Qd6x a decent amount, and if you're going to barrel it should be to triple barrel. His sizing is perfect. it makes a jam less appealing to villain, sets up a good sized shove for the river, and keeps his range wide so our river bluff will work very often. You suggested t85 and I think that's a big mistake if you're going to run a bluff here.

edit: I see this has been discussed. Thanks for the video! enjoyed it, not much to add.