ill re-respond at this
I agree on bet folding the turn small but ONLY if u plan to barrel the river a v high % of the time.
Because on the turn you shouldnt expect many folds vs a t60 bet, thats why id either go bigger on turn or bet the turn the right size so u have around a PSB on the river left to stick it in, so ur actually valuebetting the turn to take down a big pot on the river and so your line makes more sense.
I do think that checking the turn is better then betting the turn small and NOT barelling the river but if u intended on barreling a high% then u definitely want him to come along on the turn vs a small bet and fold to a river jam and then this indeed might be most +EV
the (and setting up a river jam) is the most important thing here imo!
i dont think its wrong to exclude Kx and flushes.
But my main point was IF your barreling you have to tripple barrel there. Perhaps i worded it a little poorly in the vid :P
@9:38 I definitely think it is to wide.
I agree the flop bet is mandatory and a small one as well given what weve seen (havent seen: he plays back more at small bets).
I also agree that he doesnt have an Ace most likely and that his range is probably weak and your perceived is superstrong.
However you should imo try and think about what cards to come and how many handcombos improve his range etc.
I advise here to check the turn rather then barrel it, because the turn puts out a ****TON of draws on the board that are well within his range (one spade card draws, and obv straightdraws) on top of that Jx as well pretty hugely in his range, so your turn bet in itself will almost never be profitable because u will get called fairly often on that particular turn.
Because it improves his range so much, on top of that we dont know what river cards are good for our hand and which ones we should jam on because of how inaccurately we can determine his range here once he just flats the turn, all we really know is he doesnt have Ax (most likely) or a flush.
And still i have seen people limp call A2o etc and then trap me like this without any history.
So im not a big fan of making the river Jam, and if we are not going to make the river jam, then we shouldnt be barreling turn because the turn is a card which improves his range much and he can call at least one street (the turn) more often with his given range.
The question here imo is, Yes his range is weak yes our perceived is strong (not that silverstar thinks about it but..
) however can his overall range continue vs a small turn bet on the Js and how much does the Js improve his overall range, imo the answer is it improves his range alot and allows him to "peel" one more street with a vast majority of hands he could possibly hold, which makes me reluctant to bet the turn if im NOT betting the river (and as i said im not a big fan of the river bet here hence id give up after he flats the flop at least untill i have some more reads :P)
Does that make sense?
(maybe i just play too cautios vs unknowns tho :P )