it's late friday night here and that Vino di Montepulciano 2004 was real nice

I'll come back to you on that one

As someone new to all of this I find this subject fascinating, in part because of the counter-intuitive results. When I first looked at the list of hands that had at least 48% equity against 22-55 I couldn't understand why K6s made the list and A6s did not - until I realized there was an extra potential straight combination with K that wouldn't be there with A. I'm sure that's old hat to most/all of you, but it was a real eye opener to me!

The fact that KT > KJ > KQ (and KQo didn't even make the list!) blew me away too.

Next up - why is A7s enough better than A6s when both have A-high flush potential, no straight without 4 cards from streets and all cards are overs to V's range? I'm assuming it's because A7s has more possible straights that miss V's range?

Just a few words from me.

I actually looked at my data and "my" population is open shipping top aces with a frequency barely smaller than 22-66, which kinda surprised me.

So I'd say it's more closer to this:
rather than giving a huge weight to 22-55 hands. I'd actually might even take some % from 22-55 and put it into 99-AA, cause these ppl open shove deep surprisingly often actually.

Oh, and "my" population is mostly from 30s (around 65%), some 60s (~20%) and 100s (~10%) and 15s (~5%)

Wow. my fish range was totally of then
Im always amazed by what they are capable of..

same here and I was very surprise on how wide the open shove range at 20-25bb actualy is. In fact at first I thought I made a mistake somewhere with my filters. working on building a 15000 players population right now.

this is the exact break down of the open shoves 20-25 bb deep on a population of 10000 players (bigger pop HEM crashes for some reasons). That's about 29000 tourney.



I'll weight that range and compute a range vs this one later.

great stuff genher. Maybe tomorrow I'll try to "smooth out" this range (since stuff like AJ not jammed as much as AQ and AT don't makes sense to me) and calc it, but what do the numbers mean? if one hand is 10 and another 1 does that mean 10:1?

Based on the "384 occurrences" below it appears that each cell is a count of the number of times V open shoved that particular card combination in the sample. As a consequence that would mean they are 10:1 because they are exactly 10 and 1 (if I'm right).

yes this is the raw data from my database on a population of 10000 players (excluding me BTW). That is roughly 29000 tourney (29390 to be exact). I would have liked to get a bigger pool of players, but every times i try 15000 players or more I crash HM2 and have to kill the database

First thing to notice is that it's not often than villain open shoves 20 to 25 BB deep. it only happened 384 times out of 29000 tourney (1.3%). The numbers in the cells are simply the occurences. So for instance, out of the 384 times 20 times it was 44, 14 times it was A4o and so on...

Another interesting thing is that it's an Ax MORE often than 22-55 i was very surprised at that. If you consider that we get Axs 3 times less often than Ax this means that a random player is more willing to open shove any Ax than 22-55 weird

The rest of the data is very noisy. There seem to be a few big broadways (KJo QJo)and K getting shoved and a lot of random junk. I believe that random junk could probably be any 2 cards because it's probably just a case of "FML i am drunk tonight I am going to flip my last $60 in an Hyper" reasoning (or non-reasoning)

to smooth the data it probably should be something like 20 times for 22-55, 12 times for any Axo, 4 times any Axs, keep the 1 occurences as they are (it's prob about 1/2 of the random), keep the bigger PP as they are. For the Kx and broadway ...not sure. then it's just a matter of giving proportional weight to each hand and calculate the counter-range (CREV should do that in a breeze)

I'm still a fish but I would guess because villain would be holding more blockers to the A6 hand straight potential. i.e. 23456 - villain may hold 22, 33, 44, 55

For A7 you can make a straight 34567, so villain holding 22 in this instance won't matter, but 33-55 still does.

@genher, remember there are more unsuited combos then suited, and less PP's so this is probably why the numbers are what they are
based on the fact that low PPs occur less often, villains are probably shoving small PPs almost all the time
also they are probably more inclined to shove unsuited Ax and mr suited I think?

Not really. There are 12*12=144 combinations of Axo and 9*4=36 combinations of 22-55, which gives us 4 times higher probability of getting Axo rather than 22-55. Looking at numbers there were 119 shoves with Axo and 75 with 22-55. Which gives us only 1.59x more shoves of Axo total. So don't worry People are still shoving 22-55 more often (2.52x times) than Axo.

You can do the same for both Axo and Axs but generally I feel the consensus will be the same. Working like this, we could get the percentages for different ranges (Ax-rag, strong Ax, 22-55, 66-88 and so on...) that were posted before with some weights.

Doesn't matter why they have 4 times more chances to have Ax. When they do shove they have Ax more often than 22-55. That's all that matter to us when we decide to call or not. or am I mistaken? these 384 times we would have seen more Ax than 22-55. That's all that matter to us to decide what to call with !?? isn't it?

^
That's absolutely right, it is not important how often they get dealt a certain hand, but it is important to know what they shove into us. I feel pretty much confirmed in this last posts in my opinion that we should not blindly suspect openshoves to be 22-55 and snap it off with middle connectors

Only 384 openshoves 20-25 BB deep in 29390 tournaments seems so surprisingly low to me.
Just 75 openshoves with 22-55 at this stack depth.

How many hands played do you have 20-25 deep in these 29390 tournaments?