I am very new to HUSNGs, so this might seem really spewy for most of you, after looking back at this I do realize that this is at best a break even play (correct me if I'm wrong).

Villain has a call OOP of 25 and a 3bet of 25, Flop Check Call 50 and Check Raise 50. Sample is just 28 hands though.

So how can I estimate my EV here? Would I be risking 380 to win 620 since he is never going to fold here? Therefor the reciprocal of 380+620/380 would be how much equity I need to breakeven? And what range would you give him?

Any help would be much appreciated,

Thank you

Don't show spoiler (till later), spoils the advice you will be given. I didn't peak, here are my thoughts:

Fairly wet board, normally x/r wouldn't work that well here as he's got blockers, Jx, KQ, Q9,fl. draw,T8 not folding of course, some reverse implied odds as well. You fold out very little of his range, maybe Tx (excl. T8), maybe A-rag (though would he not 3bet this pre?). Even with villain's 50% x/r being fairly high, I just don't see much FE here. I'd call the flop x/r. However, I can see a turn lead jam. Board pairing might scare off some speculative hands, hands that wouldn't fold on the flop. So my line is likely a flop call of his raise, turn jam.

But we are last to act on turn, so we can't really lead jam and calling/checking behind seems really bad. But still i'd like to know how I can calculate the EV I need for this to be BE.

Oh and yeah next time ill have the spoiler thing in mind, thanks.

Sorry my bad, brain fart.

Okay, if he jams turn I would fold grudgingly (that turn card is good for our hand), if he checks, I'd check back, we fold out little. This is a WB/slightly-ahead situation, lending me to thinking a river fold to aggression is likely, again I don't like it.

I can't right now but I'll do the EV calculation for you later, or maybe someone else can.

Good question!

I tackle this problem in my http://www.hunsg.com video "Math in HUSNGs part 3" (coming soon!). I derive the formula needed for the break even equity needed to shove given some fold equity as well as the break even fold equity needed given some pot equity (pot equities vs calling range).

So here's a nice preview, in this case we have a reasonable estimate of our pot equity--im too lazy to stove actual ranges (feel free to fill in your own range and find equity vs it!) but we can just use our hand vs top pair like KJ as our equity vs villains calling range to get a sense of things:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: J8T

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9s8h	43.64%	426	12
KhJs	56.36%	552	12

and if we want to be really pessimistic we can do it vs JT:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

990 trials (Exhaustive)

board: J8T

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
9s8h	34.95%	334	24
JhTs	65.05%	632	24

K, now in my video (coming soon!) I derive the formula for fold equity needed given the pot equity.

In this situation it ends up:
f = ( 480-100-2*380*E )
 / ( 280-2*480*E+480-100 )

So plugging in our pot equity for the 2 situations gives us:
vs KJ we need 20.1% folds
vs JT we need 35.3% folds
vs something in btw (40% equity) we need 27.5% folds

Again, for more info about how to derive this equation and how to use it in more situations check out my new vid (when it comes out!)

QUICK EV CALC:
-You can also do some quick counting (good for while playing): against TP you have 13 outs (8 for str., 3 for 2 pairs, 2 for trips), so rule of 2 & 4, 13x4 = 52, subtract 5 (outs-8 if > 8 outs) = ~ 47%, very close to coffee's more accurate after game analysis of 43.64%

-vs pessimistic range, quick math says we have 10 outs (8 for str., 2 for trips), so 10x4= 40, subtract 2 (10-8), ~38%, very close to coffee's 34.95%

* Anyone know a trick to reducing the gap between the quick ev calculation and the more accurate propokertools calculation? above, ~ 4% difference but that could be big in some circumstances.

I'll analyze coffee's fold equity calculations later so I won't discuss that yet, but it is VERY useful if we can do this quick like the ad hoc stuff above. Math is great but to able to figure it out in-game if possible is gold. I'm going to come back to this...

Thank you for this interesting info. I always like formulas. Do you think this formula is worth using for any case? Even when FE is like 5% max? In this case I wasn't even thinking in terms of FE and instead directly vs his range since I felt like he was never going to fold here (idk if it seems like that reading the HH, maybe it was just me there given the game flow).

It also confuses me to think about FE in situations like these, since I feel it's so hard to give a good estimation about how much we have. What can you tell me about this?

Btw do I need to get a membership at HUSNG to see the video? I was considering on getting one, but I first wanted to put in some more volume and see how I feel about this format.

Yeah you are right, I should actually be doing that more often, I'm always like "I prob beat like 75% of his range blabla", so yeah It would be more healthy to go more into detail. 0-5% error margin seems awesome to me, though if someone does know how to make it more accurate on the run please share.

So does the reciprocal of (380+620)/380 give me the equity I need? Or is it calculated differently? I am considering making an excel sheet to do these quick calcs, so I can get more used to the situations.

I'd chk flop. our hand isn't scared of a turn, it also small balls the hand and makes it managable. when we check, we can't be raised and we only have to play two streets IP w/ a marginal hand.

While we do have fairly good equity vs a lot of better hands we are rarely ever ahead when he continues, and if so not by much. Couple that with the times we're dominated, how our hand matches up vs his raising range, and how obvious our outs are(crushing our implied odds when flatted) there really just isn't much of a reason to shovel money into the pot. getting him to fold air is also extremely marginal since, he's only going to have 1 clean over (unless he flats KQ+) and we have a redraw when he does hit his over.

solving for how much fold equity we need to make jamming better than folding is really only useful if we're deciding between jamming and folding. here, i'm deciding between jamming and calling.

agreed. he was asking for the math of it so imo that's the best way to think about it if you are looking to jam given hand--we could also solve for equity needed given fold equity to think of ranges we can shove here. But yeah i agree that its not 100% relevant

Though it does give you a sense of how you stand when deciding on the value of jamming--if we think we have ~40% equity and we think we fold out 35%+ of his range then jamming looks pretty great imo.

I do agree though that checking back flop looks ok (tho i worry we miss value) as does flatting the raise (it does look like we'll have little fold equity in a spot like this and 35% is a lot to ask for).

I'm half pot cbetting and flatting small raises.

If you say you have no FE then your risk:reward is 380:580 (not 620 since villain only needs to call 300), so the equity needed is 380/(380+580) = 39.58%