Hi
I started playing hu hyper turbos on oct 1st and up to today my bigest swings where about 10 or so buy ins down in the beggining of the session and ussually I was able to make it all back by the end of the day. Today I lost 27 buy ins and I am 22 buy ins bellow EV over 100 games.



I'm just wondering how often does something like this happens? I had 14 winning days in a row and then in 1 day I lose like 1/2 of my bankroll

7 days a week sometimes more often

not the greatest idea to play hypers on a 50 bi roll.

It's not like I plan to stay at 7s forever I'm trying to build my bankroll as fast as possible, 50bi move up, 35bi move down.

thats ok fo sure

A while ago I calc'd what freq you should see downswings for different roi's and different game types.

Here is a link for the hyper HU SnGs
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...er-level-rake-
here is a link for standard/turbo raked ones
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...wnswing-Graphs
and here is a set of links for other common SnG types, 9's, 18's, 27's etc
http://www.deucescracked.com/blogs/b...ability-Graphs

Note, the graphs show the freq of getting a X BI or worse swing so if X is showing 60% for 3000 games on average then in 3000 games you should see an X, or X+1, X+2 etc. swing, or looking the other side (100 - 60)% = 40% of the time you'll be lucky enough not to have seen an XBI swing in a block of 3000 games.

The frequency of the down will increase and decrease based on a certain number of factors so its important to put all the results , your roi who do u play most against , your style of play
etcetc

Ex if u play regs only with 0 edge you can have 50 + downswings

Ex if play fish only with 4% edge u will have 20 bi down very rarely

10-15 very common, 20+ not as common but still happens fair amount

Happened to me today

for me it was total of around 37 buy ins, 27 at 7s and I moved back down to 3.50s the next day and It countinued for another 10 buy ins before I started to win back

How did you come up with those graphs? In particular the HU hyper turbo ones.. What kind of statistical model did you use? I'm rusty with my knowledge on the various distributions... :P

Don't know how many 20+ bi downswings you count here.

The calculations are done using a Markov Chain.
In a way you can view your current position in a downswing as a single state and from this state you can move to another state either up or down depending on whether you win or lose (or with bigger fields jump to a few states if you can come 1st,2nd,3rd,4th... or lose).
From any state we know how likely you are to jump into any other as we have the finish distribution of your games. In HU, lets say you win 54% and lose 46% of the time .
If you are in state X you either jump to state X+a or X-b

You can write these states as a matrix and then use matrix maths to calculate what happens in the long run.
I am calculating how often a specific swing occurs and if we hit this state we never get out even if we have more 'throws' or games left to go we have aready hit theis sized swing. Also when we hit a point as high as the downswing size this is the top state and we never move to any higher state - we want to see if we ever hit a run that takes us X below a high water point so the top row of the matrix is this high water mark, the bottom row is the downswing.
Here is an example matrix for a hu with 54% win and for use calculating a 3BI swing (ignoring rake)
being in state "0", 54% we 'jump' to state "0" ie, no change we are at the high water mark, and 46% we jump to state -1.
Notice once we get to state "-3" we stay there as 100% of the time we jump from state "-3" to state "-3", ie. no move.
From state "-1" we jump to state "0" 54% of the time and state "-2" 46%.
and here is a decent video about Markov Chains:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afIhgiHVnj0

ahh very cool. thanks for explaining it