I was playing a 50c deepstacks match earlier and my opponent was shoving all in every hand. In these games the rake is 5c per player, i.e. the winner gets 90c.

I presume to make a mathematically +EV call versus a random hand I need 45% equity under these circumstances?

Realistically, given that starting stacks are 3,000 and initial blinds are 10-20 and you have the leisure of waiting for a top 10 or 20% hand, what sort of equity hand would you wait for?

Ok since I haven't had any replies I'll take a stab at it myself. First I'll make some assumptions:

1. I'm happy to get it in with a top 10% hand so I'll see if it's realistic to wait for one

2. If I fold all of my big blind hands then it'll be obvious when I finally do a get a hand in that position that I'm strong and villain can fold. In an effort to thwart that I'll limp/fold every third big blind.

This means that for every 6 hands I play It'll cost me 10 small blinds (4x2 + 2x1)

So I won't get a top 10% hand 90% of the time I'm dealt a hand

The probability of not getting such a hand in my first 10 hands is 34.9%

in my first 20 hands = 12.2%

in my first 30 hands = 4.2%


So in 95% of cases I'll get a playable hand within 30 cards. The cost of 30 cards is 50 small blinds. Let's assume these are split between the first 2 levels (10c and 15c small blinds). So the chip cost will be 50 x 12.5 = 625

Given that my starting stack is 3,000 this represents just over 20%

So, yes I think waiting for a top 10% hand is perfectly ok so long as villain is pushing every single hand.

You have fancy study syndrome, you're doing a bunch of unnecessary calcs, I used to do it all the time when I was new and I lost a lot of hours. All that matters is pot odds and your eq vs his range in the current hand.

Risk (amount to call) / [Risk+Reward(pot)] = required eq

His range is the tricky part.

you need 49,67% equity if hes openshoving everyhand..

So you call with top 27% of your range (44+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, JTs, A3o+, K9o+, QTo+)

done

they dont' jam every single hand. They might be jamming 100% of all hands at the start of a match but "tighten" to 30-40% soon after. Also if they time down a bit before they open jam that hand is gonna be strongish atleast (ie a6+).

I'm assuming that this is slightly less than 50% to account for the blinds but do you not need to account for the rake as well? Like if you played this match infinitely and called with your top 49% of hands then surely you'd be a long term loser after the 10% rake is factored in.


How did you arrive at this figure? It just seems somewhat arbitrary

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...-tl-dr-461260/

thanks!