This is my leakfinder for Antibacteria, a $15/30 Hyper reg on Lock. I think this is a great session to look at because it's a perfect example of a solid player who plays a great game, but makes a few big errors that are going to be costly in the long run unless corrected. That's no slight on Antibacteria, he is capable of crushing these stakes, but hopefully will crush a little harder after my notes
Here's the link to the video:
Video starts at :45. Below are my notes, I recommend pulling them up beside the video and comparing your thoughts to mine. There are several spots where I wasn't sure or I felt that others would disagree with me, so any suggestions/feedback on hands are welcome.
1:00 (Ac7c): Nice hand. It sucks when he c/minraises turn, but not folding here. I would immediately make a note that
he donked pot with a big draw and c/mraised the turn when he hit.
1:57(A7o): This is close, I think I jam over if it's suited or A8o, but flatting the double raise seems fine. I also
2:15(94o): I fold here readless until I know villain either folds too much pre or plays too fit/fold post.
2:42(K2o): I think flatting is better on flop, reason being you have a pot sized bet left on turn, so you can get it in
very easy regardless of what he does. As played, I'd raise 90 instead of 100 cause it looks less intimidating to fishies.
3:30(64o): Nice hand. At this point I would label this guy a spewy fish and note that he 3barreled a bad board to
3barrel for stacks.
4:05(Qc9c): I jam over too, and this is another mega noteworthy hand. 3x/calling J5o here lets us jam over with tons of
value when stacks get shallow whenever he raises.
4:29(J3o): Back to back spew from him, I would combine this note with the last one and just put "Raise/calls garbage
shallow, jam over VALUE ONLY."
5:00(Q9o): I think mr/call is much better against this villain because 1:He's gonna jam over with tons worse and
2. When flatted, Q9o plays great postflop and we still have a bit of maneuverability even though stacks are shallow.
6:42(Q5o): This is your first big mistake in my opinion. Open jamming Q5o for 11bb is gonna be your worst option- if you
look at the Nash chart, Q5o is a shove for 9bb. Also this guy is calling off pre incredibly wide, so Q5o isn't gonna
fare so well. I think the best play here is to mr/fold, it sucks when he jams over but it's better to risk an extra bb
to win his bb than to risk your whole stack here.
8:47(Q7o): An alternative play might be to flat pre and open jam any flop. You're going all in preflop anyway, this might
force him to make some bad folds on the flop once in a blue moon.
9:48(Jh9h): I c/r here as default with top pair, gutshots, 7x, OESD. As played, I would lead river for value against
Jx once we make the best two pair. At this point we don't know if the guy is a reg or fish so we assume fish and try to
take the best line against a fish to get value, so leading river here seems best. Also I would note that villain
is capable of barreling turned equity and is likely minraising very wide.
10:30(KJo): I'm not convinced this is a mr/call at 17bb without further reads. We need 44% equity to call, and assuming
a range of Ax, pairs, and some broadways, we don't have the equity to call. He needs to have a decent amount of bluffs
in his range to give us the equity to call, and as a default I think most players don't at 17bb, so I make what some
might see as a nitty fold. If it was suited I'd snap, though, getting the extra 3% equity from the suitedness.
11:20(K6o): This is the maniac guy from earlier, and this is a spot where, 100 games down the line, having notes on this
guy will make you a lot of money. I'd note this hand that me mindonked two streets with air and halfpotted river, so his
sizings seem random as a bluff.
11:26(T7o): This is a nitty fold. I'm snap calling this against almost anyone at this stack depth, especially this guy
since he spews so hard. Folding T6o though.
11:30(KJo): Exact same situation as earlier, except here I'd snap call a jam since we have solid reads on villain's
11:47(KTo): Jam is fine, but I prefer a flat 17bb against this guy because KT plays well post and again, he spews so hard.
12:30(J8o): I just fold against his minbet. He's exploiting himself by minbetting there cause he gives you great odds
to flat whenever you do have a hand. Also, this guy just seems to be clicking buttons- a bad recipe for bluffing. As
played, I think giving up on turn is definitely best.
12:55(K4o): If I had two overs to the 5 I'd peel flop.
13:05(Td6d): This is your second big mistake. If I'm reading your HUD right, he's minraised 80% over a sample of
82 hands. This is enough to make Td6d a snap jam over here, really any suited Tx. If you haven't already,
google "Insane Steve's 3bet Calculator" and find the 2p2 thread about it and download it. It gives you the profit in
Big Blinds from jamming over a minraise or 3x at different stack depths. Basically, at 17bb, if villain is raising
80%, there's no calling range possible for him to have where jamming Td6d is worse than folding. This is a spot you should
put a lot of effort into studying, especially since you're playing with a HUD and can make some great generalizations
about preflop ranges based on the stats you're given. I play HUDless, so when I watch someone play who has a HUD these
mistakes instantly pop out at me. This is a very common spot that will cost you tons of money in the long run if you
continue to pass it up.
13:27(QQ): Definitely don't jam here. We're ~13bb deep, plenty of value to be had postflop from a bad player. I'd go
around 80 chips against this guy, even 70 or a minraise might be better- bottom line is you're losing tons of value by
jamming this pre.
13:37(85o): This is a gameflow fold. You just jammed his limp, he's more likely to spew shove the next hand. As played,
I'd just jam over his flop lead this shallow. He's donked enough that our hand is generally strong enough here to jam and
expect to get a fold alot of the time and have decent equity when called against his range. As played played, I also call
down once we hit two pair on the turn.
14:40(94o): I fold here, 95o being the bottom of my 9x unsuited raising range. Also, on a side note, I've
played against Kebo many times, and I never marked him as decent, which means he did something that made me
label him bad. We'll see if anything pops up.
14:58(QJo): It looks like you're inconsistent with your preflop decisions. You folded the Td6d 16bb against
an 80% opener, but you jam QJo 23bb against a 64% opener. This is definitely a flat pre, the hand plays
great post and almost certainly has better expectation flatting than jamming.
15:22(Q8o): Maybe you had reads or something, but this is another standard flat at 20bb. I noticed you
3bet jammed against me a lot as well- the thing is the EV you lose from not flatting very playable hands
like QJ and Q8o will catch up to you in the long run. I'd rather jam something like 65ss because it's
bottom of our flatting range and plays better against a calling range.
15:34(Ks3s): This is more reasonable, the hand is kind of janky postflop and his raise % seems to be rising
and we're 18bb instead of 20-25, which makes the chips we pick up more valuable in relation
to effective stacks.
15:53(AJ): Perfect time to pick up AJ, and I like the jam here after jamming his past 3 raises.
16:10(ATo): I cbet 30 here instead of 40, we are short enough that we can afford to go a bit smaller and get
a slightly wider calling range or encourage villain to jam over more often. Also, Kebo seems to be on the
nitty side, so a bet of 30 makes it easier for him to call. On the turn, I'd go 60-70, I think half pot here
looks super strong and not bluffy given how shallow you are. As played river jam is standard, and I would
make a super note that he flatted 84dd 16bb and called down with fourth pair no kicker. Now we know why I
didn't label him decent!
16:45(96o): I'd minraise or limp here for sure. Kebo has played super passive pre and post, his only aggro
factor seems to be a highish preflop raise, and we can assume that he's playing fit/fold post since we havent
been c/r or played back at in any spots.
17:09(44): Not that his jam is bad, but it's definitely a note to take to help you whittle down his ranges
when stacks get shallow for jamming.
17:12(67o): Folding is your worst option here. You have 3 legitimate options: limp, mr/fold, or open jam.
Against Kebo I would lean toward mr/fold, since he plays so poorly post and he's not jamming over us wide
pre. At 8bb I would just take my preflop fold equity and jam.
17:23(Q2o): Pay close attention to these spots and what hands you are folding. 9bb deep here, Q2o is just
short of a Nash jam. That said, I like a mr/fold here much better than open folding and think it will be
more profitable than forfeiting your sb.
17:41(8cTc): Against this guy I'd rather check. His limp is 6%, I would assume there's some traps and
strong hands in that range. Also, we still have a little maneuverability at 8bb post against a passive
17:47(67o): Same thing as last time, definitely don't fold, I prefer a mr/fold.
19:19(A9o): I'd raise 4x to 80, reason being Ax plays poorly postflop, so we want to get more preflop value.
Also with a hand like Ax we're not getting additional value postflop, since when we bet an Axx flop villain
will already give us credit for having an A. I'd go 3x with the broadways and big pairs, since they have
19:40(Q9o): I would already label this guy a passive fish, and Q9o gets raised to 60 here for value.
20:00(T5o): Nice hand. I'd bet slightly bigger on turn, 90-100, for slightly more value. I like the river
check back and we get to see that villain is super passive preflop and super stationy postflop.
21:35(27hh): I haven't seen what you did yet on turn, I'm going to say I hope you overbet shove. We just saw
villain flat a J7xdd flop with A high, so on a flop like this his range is super wide for floating. He will
have all gutshots, 3x, possibly even some backdoor flush type hands like J8dd. The turn is the ****tiest
card to shove, but it also makes it more unlikely that he has Kx. I don't assume he's folding 9x, but I do
assume he's folding all his non paired hands, which is a wide part of his range, and POSSIBLY 3X. Ok, he
shows up with Kx, but that doesn't change my mind about the hand.
22:20(75o): I stab flop here 40 chips. We know he's a station, but on a mono flop fish usually won't
call without a spade, and besides the spade it's a pretty dry flop.
22:30(65o): I'd minraise or limp, take your pick. He's just too passive not to take advantage.
23:02(Tc9c): I think you should definitely lead this turn for value. He's going to check back a lot of stuff
that will call a bet on the turn (Qx, 9x, anything that picked up spades on turn, TJ,etc), so bet and
get your value.
23:54(98o): I'd either stab flop here 50 chips or stab turn. I think his range is wide enough that you
get open folds enough for it to be more profitable than checking down your no showdown value 9 high.
25:41(J7o): This is a standard flat preflop. I also flat J6o, folding J5o as standard. You'll do better
expectation wise flatting than folding.
27:26(4d5d): If your HUD stats are accurate this is an easy jam.
28:44(6h4h): I'd bet 50, no need to bet 1/2 pot this shallow. Super note worthy that he flats J4o at all,
let alone this shallow.
28:55(A3hh): I would note his jam, it's slightly wider than Nash at 8bb, something to keep an eye out for.
29:00- Nice finish to the video!
I think your overall game is very solid. My suggestions:
1. Fine tune your ranges for raising preflop and for calling a raise. You are missing out on EV by folding
marginal hands that can and should be flatted pre, and you're also missing out on marginal spots shallow
where you can do better than folding my minraising, limping, or open shoving.
2. Be hyper aware of your opponent's playstyle and tendencies, and this includes NOTE TAKING. Especially on
Lock, we have the privilege of being sat many times by the same fish over and over. I see guys coming back
for more punishment againt me all the time. What they don't know is that I have tons of notes on them with an
encyclopaedia on how to exploit them.
3. Be careful with your 3bet jams- I'm assuming you had some kind of read on Kebo, since you weren't as jam
happy in your other games. Still, I think your QJ and Q8o jams were sub-optimal compared to flatting. Also,
you missed a couple standard jams, like the Td6d hand and the 4d5d hand. If you haven't already, google
"Insane Steve's 3bet Shove Calculator" and look for the 2p2 thread with the same name. Download his
calculator and play around with calling ranges and jamming ranges until you get a feel for how you should
play at different stack depths.