A: Certainly higher than 60% is overstating it
B: If you want to go that route, add $/time into the equation, then deduct the $/4 mins you'll lose waiting for a better spot from your 65% or whatever equity in which time you could've gotten another game going.

And I'm all for wait for a better spot arguments when it's marginal at best, but here it's really not close at all.

Passing up on 60-40 edge is suicidal in HUSNG's. Period.

Oh and I snap this off.

Time is money. Period.

Againist fish like this is easy to win over 60% games ..

No it's not, 60% winrate is really hard to attain.

easy call

+1 on the passing up 60/40 spots. That's just horrible in HUSNG's..... period.

But if you're snapping him off here, what kind of range are you really putting him on?

I'm not saying I'm a HUSNG pro by any stretch of the imagination, but WAY too often this is 22+ and no less than AJs/o+ imo. I can't see him doing this with less given prior reads. And why would he wait until hand 3 to "tilt" shove? Most fishy villains that are tilted just open shove hand 1 of a rematch imo. Any hands after that and you have to evaluate the whole situation and prior reads.

Also, hero showed up with AA last showdown, so we have to believe villain wants to tighten his range up against hero who overshoved a monster OTF.

If we didn't have any history of villain tilting (though shoving this deep seems to point that way), I would put AJo slightly ahead of random's shoving range. Given the history of tilt/fishiness, I could see any A, a ton of K, random air, etc.. which we're obviously crushing.


I think you have a misconception about husng edges. The best (non reg-speed, non no-blind-increases, etc...) husng players generally have an itm% between 52%-56% lifetime. Obviously, they are playing tougher average competition, but even against a player like this it's tough to have a constant edge far higher than 60%, you're just not going to get enough premium hands to abuse his shoving range by that much.

The only type of player I would guess you could clearly maintain such an edge on would be someone who is insanely nitty/passive, and you can run over. Otherwise, it's simply not going to happen long term.