Originally Posted by I<3Poker
OESD + two overs is good enough to bet/call.
It's 260 to call a pot that would be 680, which is a good bet if we have more than a 260/680 = 38.2% chance to win. The chances we improve with two draws to our 10 is 38.4%. So even if we assume hit=win, it's just barely correct odds to call.
But hit=win is a bad assumption as sometimes he counterfits our outs (eg if he holds J8, we really only have 7 outs). Sometimes he will hit a redraw (eg he has K8 and the turn/river are J,K). Sometimes we hit and still lose (he has 87 or 22 and the turn/river comes J,K). To be fair, these will be offset some by situations where we actually are ahead of his bluff or semi-bluff, though those look rare here. If we knew he had 56 or T9, we would call.
If we knew he had Q3, we would not call. If we hit, he has a 3 out redraw, which he hits about 6% of the time. This will be very typical and it will tip the balance. Our chance to improve and he doesn't are 38.4% * 94% = 36.8%.
Betting 40 on the flop to win 80 is fine.