Your equation should look like this:

t1020 are the additional chips you could win when vill calls, and t940 the cost of your shove.

You could also compare the total chips that you might have after your all in to the t940 chips you have before you shove.

30%(t940 + t140) + 70%*51%(t1960) = t1023.7

The diff is your above EV = t1023.7 - t940 = t83.7.

Hope this helps.

Hand 2:
Did I do it right? If someone is 3betting very wide, I really like flatting and playing in position with quality/non-premium hands like AT especially closer to 75bb deep. Shoving is fine too, but even at 50bb you might be a bit thin vs. his calling range (which is often tighter than you think). It really depends on a read re: how loose he will call preflop shoves. Re: 1st bold above, I think you are looking at this too pessimistically. When he cbets the flop, you should be happy to call when you have whiffed if the board isn't K/Q-high ... you are usually ahead. A lot of these guys will fire two barrels with whiffed K5s. Why stop them? Doesn't anyone like to play quality hands in position any more?

Re: the second bold, you should rethink ... this isn't always true but when it is it is a good thing, not a bad thing. Think about how this hand might have played out if you flatted him (putting aside the awful river). Shoving wide can be profitable if you have the read to support it but it is by no means the only way to beat an aggro monkey and it has a lot of variance. Most importantly you are giving up the advantage of position. And no, if you flatted his 3bet he would not have donked ... he would have cbet.

How can we win t1020 when we start the hand with t980?

t40 is already in the pot from when we opened.

So, the pot that we can win is that t40 + the t980 that vill have put in if he calls our shove.

(Alternatively we can win the t140 in the pot after vill's 3-bet + the t880 for vill to call our shove.)

The t940 is the amount of our shove.

Ok, to save my mathematical ass, here the general equation with explanation:

t140 is what is in the pot at the time we make the decision (t40 from hero, t100 from villain)
Hero's Stack at this point is at t940

For the ev calculation this means:

If we shove and he folds, we win t140
If we shove and he calls, two scenarios:
a) we win t980
b) we lose t940

Equation:
t140*(Fold%) + (Call%)*[t980*(Win%) - t940*(Lose%)]

Ok, now assume some ranges:
As long as I haven't seen otherwise, I expect villain too call with a range like this:
55+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

thats the top 23.5% of his range, already fairly loose

Variables:

Fold% = 76.5%
Call% = 23.5%
Win% = 53.4%
Lose% = 46.6%

In equation:
EV(t) = t140*(0.765) + (0.235)*[t980*(0.534) - t940*(0.466)]
= t127

With the range you assumed:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,93s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,5 3s+,43s,A2o+,K2o+,Q3o+,J5o+,T6o+,96o+,86o+,76o

EV(t) = t140*(0.3) + (0.7)*[t980*(0.609) - t940*(0.391)]
= t202

Can't edit my post anymore, so please don't kill me for double posting. xD
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A comparably tight range would be(11.9%):
88+,A9s+,KTs+,ATo+,KTo+

EV(t) = t140*(0.881) + (0.119)*[t980*(0.432) - t940*(0.568)]
= t110


So even if he calls with a very narrow range, you are way up in EV. If he calls very few hands, you get your value from his folds. If he calls with close to any2, you get your value from all the hands you dominate.

@Fantam I see where you're coming from, the converter makes it hard to know what 980 represents. The line "Hero raises to 980 and is all-in" includes the 140 in the pot.

Hero (SB): 980 (49 bb)
BB: 2,020 (101 bb)

Converters always do that dont they? Instead of saying how much more you are putting in the pot, they add up your total bet.

The "980 and is all in" wont include the 140 in the pot. The 980 represents hero's 40 open and his subsequent 940 shove.

I hope that this is becoming clearer, but please let me know if not.

Yep, it's simple now that I think about it. We have to call 940 to possibly win 1040. Thanks

[hand 3] Villain is aggro , and loose. 19 hands in hte game , he atacked my opens twice reraising from t40 to t100 , ip he cbets flop to my check however he checks turn and river if called on flop. I think he overplays Ax and pp and draws , but this is just a hunch.

Also ip he kind of overbets river if it is checked out to , puting t80 into t40 pot , I did call once nad he had air.

First hand of the game shows how loose he started:







Maybe the hand above I could have played it better , but my question is for the hand below. Also I think that he was really loose the first 3-4 hands when I did call some smallish bets with stuff like 2nd pair and caught his bluffs , and now he sees me as a loose/callign station.

This is the hand in question:








My thinking is that he has a 1 pair type of hand , a draw , or even a bluff with air , but not a made hand (stronger than 1 pair). Also Qx he would not proably shove. On turn , I put him on the range: [7x , 8x , 3x, Qx , flush draws = Axo with Ac].

I think this because ti would be easy for him to just bet t160 or smth on turn then allon river , and I would certanly call there , instead of risking to lose me folding if he really has a strong hand.

linecheck + thinking check pls.
Also remember to start your answer with [hand 3]



ALso notice that is turned out my read on his range is bad , so therefore this must be a spot where I can improve a lot.

same game , the guy started to apply pressure on me , I hit a series of crappy cards and lost small pots to him.

This is mostly a math question , looks at this hand:








Against the range of : 77-AA , A9s-AKs , KTs-KQs, QJs , AJo - AKo, KJo - KQo , menaing the 10.9% of starting hands , this is a TIGTH range , my A9o has 38% to win.


Computing EV: FP = folr percentage

EV = FP% * 120 + (1-FP)% * ( 38% * 910 - 62% * 860 )
EV = FP% * 120 + (1 - FP)% * ( 345.8 - 533.2)
EV = FP% * 120 - (1 - FP)% * 187.4 = FP% * 307.4 - 187.4

EV = 187.4 * ( 1.64 * FP% - 1 )

for EV = 0 he must fold 60% pf the time.

Question1: how do I better estimate his range (He will not call this tigth, maybe ?, in this spot - having a lot of cips , being t120 dead money, being aggro)

Question2: how do I estimate the % of times he will fold preflop to a shove ?

Question3: how do I compute all this in a game ?

Obviously I do not expect for question 1 2 and 3 to have easy to apply answers , but there surely must be some tips and tricks for this spot.

Please share the info. Also I noticed there is not video on HUSNG.COM about math. (or is there one but I missed it ?)

Wrong again.

[hand 2] please do not reply without posting the hand you are talking about.

My read was that vill may have bet the flop with a pair, a draw or possibly a bluff with a hand that had some showdown value (like Ax in the 1st hand).

After you raised his flop bet and vill called, I removed bluffs from his range.

When vill shoved the turn, I suspected him to have the flush as it was the only draw that completed. I also doubted that he would shove with a pair that he only called your flop bet with.

In addition, I would not have expected vill to have called a flop bet with Qx, unless he perhaps had Q8,Q7 or Q3. In which case, he may or may not have shoved the turn with 2 pair, depending upon how aggressive he was.

You did well with the math.

There is a slight correction in that you would win 920 chips, when you win after vill calls your all in. (Thats 120 in pot + vills 800 to call).

Estimating vills calling range is your best guess. The better that anyone can estimate their opponent's range, the better the decisions they can make.

In game, I think that you could perhaps take an approach like this:

Vill is aggressive, so I think that he might be open raising 80% of the time.

I think that he might call my shove with the top 20% of hands, so he might call 20/80 or about 25% of the time.

That means, I estimate he will fold 75% of the time, and from doing calculations like the above away from the table my shove should be profitable.

Note that if vill was calling with top 20% range, your A9o would win more often. (I pokerstoved it would win ~ 46%) So, you would not need vill to fold as much as the above 60%. Anyway, I am sure that you get the idea.