Two Plus Two Poker Forums 7\$ , good read here ?
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

09-17-2012, 02:06 PM   #16
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
Posts: 3,294
Re: 7\$ , good read here ?

Your equation should look like this:

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hungryguy EV = 30% * t140 + 70% * ( 51% * t1020 - 49% * t940 ) EV = 42 + 0.7 * ( 520.2 - 460.6 ) = 42 + 41.7 EV = 83.7 tchips
t1020 are the additional chips you could win when vill calls, and t940 the cost of your shove.

You could also compare the total chips that you might have after your all in to the t940 chips you have before you shove.

30%(t940 + t140) + 70%*51%(t1960) = t1023.7

The diff is your above EV = t1023.7 - t940 = t83.7.

Hope this helps.

09-17-2012, 02:06 PM   #17
journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 384
Re: 7\$ , good read here ?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hungryguy b) I am ip , if I call and do not hit (most flops) he will stab. Pot is t200 , eff stack is t800. If I do not hit and try to bluff him , basically I have to reraise his donk of at least t160 and he will call shove with any piece simply due to pot odds plus he is loose aggro douche.
Hand 2:
Did I do it right? If someone is 3betting very wide, I really like flatting and playing in position with quality/non-premium hands like AT especially closer to 75bb deep. Shoving is fine too, but even at 50bb you might be a bit thin vs. his calling range (which is often tighter than you think). It really depends on a read re: how loose he will call preflop shoves. Re: 1st bold above, I think you are looking at this too pessimistically. When he cbets the flop, you should be happy to call when you have whiffed if the board isn't K/Q-high ... you are usually ahead. A lot of these guys will fire two barrels with whiffed K5s. Why stop them? Doesn't anyone like to play quality hands in position any more?

Re: the second bold, you should rethink ... this isn't always true but when it is it is a good thing, not a bad thing. Think about how this hand might have played out if you flatted him (putting aside the awful river). Shoving wide can be profitable if you have the read to support it but it is by no means the only way to beat an aggro monkey and it has a lot of variance. Most importantly you are giving up the advantage of position. And no, if you flatted his 3bet he would not have donked ... he would have cbet.

Last edited by karmageddon; 09-17-2012 at 02:10 PM. Reason: IDK, you describe this guy as "loose aggro" but the two hands we've seen were AJ and KQ? Does perception=reality?

 09-17-2012, 03:10 PM #18 adept     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Chugging maple syrup with a beaver Posts: 889 Re: 7\$ , good read here ? How can we win t1020 when we start the hand with t980?
09-17-2012, 03:23 PM   #19
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
Posts: 3,294
Re: 7\$ , good read here ?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Quimp How can we win t1020 when we start the hand with t980?
t40 is already in the pot from when we opened.

So, the pot that we can win is that t40 + the t980 that vill have put in if he calls our shove.

(Alternatively we can win the t140 in the pot after vill's 3-bet + the t880 for vill to call our shove.)

The t940 is the amount of our shove.

 09-17-2012, 03:25 PM #20 centurion     Join Date: May 2007 Location: crushing \$2's Posts: 146 Re: 7\$ , good read here ? Ok, to save my mathematical ass, here the general equation with explanation: t140 is what is in the pot at the time we make the decision (t40 from hero, t100 from villain) Hero's Stack at this point is at t940 For the ev calculation this means: If we shove and he folds, we win t140 If we shove and he calls, two scenarios: a) we win t980 b) we lose t940 Equation: t140*(Fold%) + (Call%)*[t980*(Win%) - t940*(Lose%)] Ok, now assume some ranges: As long as I haven't seen otherwise, I expect villain too call with a range like this: 55+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A7o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo thats the top 23.5% of his range, already fairly loose Variables: Fold% = 76.5% Call% = 23.5% Win% = 53.4% Lose% = 46.6% In equation: EV(t) = t140*(0.765) + (0.235)*[t980*(0.534) - t940*(0.466)] = t127 With the range you assumed: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,93s+,84s+,74s+,63s+,5 3s+,43s,A2o+,K2o+,Q3o+,J5o+,T6o+,96o+,86o+,76o EV(t) = t140*(0.3) + (0.7)*[t980*(0.609) - t940*(0.391)] = t202 Last edited by 200%; 09-17-2012 at 03:52 PM.
 09-17-2012, 04:00 PM #21 centurion     Join Date: May 2007 Location: crushing \$2's Posts: 146 Re: 7\$ , good read here ? Can't edit my post anymore, so please don't kill me for double posting. xD --------------------------------------------------------------------- A comparably tight range would be(11.9%): 88+,A9s+,KTs+,ATo+,KTo+ EV(t) = t140*(0.881) + (0.119)*[t980*(0.432) - t940*(0.568)] = t110 So even if he calls with a very narrow range, you are way up in EV. If he calls very few hands, you get your value from his folds. If he calls with close to any2, you get your value from all the hands you dominate.
 09-17-2012, 04:04 PM #22 adept     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Chugging maple syrup with a beaver Posts: 889 Re: [hand 2] I am not starting a new thread @Fantam I see where you're coming from, the converter makes it hard to know what 980 represents. The line "Hero raises to 980 and is all-in" includes the 140 in the pot. Hero (SB): 980 (49 bb) BB: 2,020 (101 bb)
09-17-2012, 06:58 PM   #23
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
Posts: 3,294
Re: [hand 2] I am not starting a new thread

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Quimp @Fantam I see where you're coming from, the converter makes it hard to know what 980 represents. The line "Hero raises to 980 and is all-in" includes the 140 in the pot. Hero (SB): 980 (49 bb) BB: 2,020 (101 bb)
Converters always do that dont they? Instead of saying how much more you are putting in the pot, they add up your total bet.

The "980 and is all in" wont include the 140 in the pot. The 980 represents hero's 40 open and his subsequent 940 shove.

I hope that this is becoming clearer, but please let me know if not.

 09-17-2012, 07:52 PM #24 adept     Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Chugging maple syrup with a beaver Posts: 889 Re: 7\$ , good read here ? Yep, it's simple now that I think about it. We have to call 940 to possibly win 1040. Thanks
 09-18-2012, 01:15 AM #26 grinder     Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 553 [hand 4] same villain as in hand 3 same game , the guy started to apply pressure on me , I hit a series of crappy cards and lost small pots to him. This is mostly a math question , looks at this hand: Poker Stars, \$6.67 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13946922 Hero (BB): 890 (29.7 bb) SB: 2,110 (70.3 bb) Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 A SB raises to 90, Hero raises to 890 and is all-in, SB calls 800 Flop: (1,780) K 4 T (2 players, 1 is all-in) Turn: (1,780) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in) River: (1,780) T (2 players, 1 is all-in) Spoiler: Results: 1,780 pot Final Board: K 4 T 3 T Hero showed 9 A and lost (-890 net) SB showed Q K and won 1,780 (890 net) Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer. Against the range of : 77-AA , A9s-AKs , KTs-KQs, QJs , AJo - AKo, KJo - KQo , menaing the 10.9% of starting hands , this is a TIGTH range , my A9o has 38% to win. Computing EV: FP = folr percentage EV = FP% * 120 + (1-FP)% * ( 38% * 910 - 62% * 860 ) EV = FP% * 120 + (1 - FP)% * ( 345.8 - 533.2) EV = FP% * 120 - (1 - FP)% * 187.4 = FP% * 307.4 - 187.4 EV = 187.4 * ( 1.64 * FP% - 1 ) for EV = 0 he must fold 60% pf the time. Question1: how do I better estimate his range (He will not call this tigth, maybe ?, in this spot - having a lot of cips , being t120 dead money, being aggro) Question2: how do I estimate the % of times he will fold preflop to a shove ? Question3: how do I compute all this in a game ? Obviously I do not expect for question 1 2 and 3 to have easy to apply answers , but there surely must be some tips and tricks for this spot. Please share the info. Also I noticed there is not video on HUSNG.COM about math. (or is there one but I missed it ?)
09-18-2012, 03:38 AM   #27
centurion

Join Date: May 2007
Location: crushing \$2's
Posts: 146
Re: 7\$ , good read here ?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Quimp Yep, it's simple now that I think about it. We have to call 940 to possibly win 1040. Thanks
Wrong again.

 09-18-2012, 04:22 AM #28 grinder     Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 553 Re: 7\$ , good read here ? [hand 2] please do not reply without posting the hand you are talking about.
09-18-2012, 06:33 AM   #29
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
Posts: 3,294
Re: [hand 3] aggro loose villain , I put him on a wekish range

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hungryguy [hand 3] [converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, \$6.67 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13946862 Hero (SB): 2,120 (106 bb) BB: 880 (44 bb) Preflop: Hero is SB with A A Hero raises to 40, BB calls 20 Flop: (80) 7 8 3 (2 players) BB bets 100, Hero raises to 265, BB calls 165 Turn: (610) Q (2 players) BB bets 575 and is all-in, Hero calls 575 River: (1,760) 4 (2 players, 1 is all-in) My thinking is that he has a 1 pair type of hand , a draw , or even a bluff with air , but not a made hand (stronger than 1 pair). Also Qx he would not proably shove. On turn , I put him on the range: [7x , 8x , 3x, Qx , flush draws = Axo with Ac].
My read was that vill may have bet the flop with a pair, a draw or possibly a bluff with a hand that had some showdown value (like Ax in the 1st hand).

After you raised his flop bet and vill called, I removed bluffs from his range.

When vill shoved the turn, I suspected him to have the flush as it was the only draw that completed. I also doubted that he would shove with a pair that he only called your flop bet with.

In addition, I would not have expected vill to have called a flop bet with Qx, unless he perhaps had Q8,Q7 or Q3. In which case, he may or may not have shoved the turn with 2 pair, depending upon how aggressive he was.

09-18-2012, 07:29 AM   #30
veteran

Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: London
Posts: 3,294
Re: [hand 4] same villain as in hand 3

Quote:
 Originally Posted by hungryguy Computing EV: FP = folr percentage EV = FP% * 120 + (1-FP)% * ( 38% * 910 - 62% * 860 ) EV = FP% * 120 + (1 - FP)% * ( 345.8 - 533.2) EV = FP% * 120 - (1 - FP)% * 187.4 = FP% * 307.4 - 187.4 EV = 187.4 * ( 1.64 * FP% - 1 ) for EV = 0 he must fold 60% pf the time. Question1: how do I better estimate his range (He will not call this tigth, maybe ?, in this spot - having a lot of cips , being t120 dead money, being aggro) Question2: how do I estimate the % of times he will fold preflop to a shove ? Question3: how do I compute all this in a game ? Obviously I do not expect for question 1 2 and 3 to have easy to apply answers , but there surely must be some tips and tricks for this spot. Please share the info. Also I noticed there is not video on HUSNG.COM about math. (or is there one but I missed it ?)
You did well with the math.

There is a slight correction in that you would win 920 chips, when you win after vill calls your all in. (Thats 120 in pot + vills 800 to call).

Estimating vills calling range is your best guess. The better that anyone can estimate their opponent's range, the better the decisions they can make.

In game, I think that you could perhaps take an approach like this:

Vill is aggressive, so I think that he might be open raising 80% of the time.

I think that he might call my shove with the top 20% of hands, so he might call 20/80 or about 25% of the time.

That means, I estimate he will fold 75% of the time, and from doing calculations like the above away from the table my shove should be profitable.

Note that if vill was calling with top 20% range, your A9o would win more often. (I pokerstoved it would win ~ 46%) So, you would not need vill to fold as much as the above 60%. Anyway, I am sure that you get the idea.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is OffTrackbacks are Off Pingbacks are Off Refbacks are Off Forum Rules

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:18 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top