I think the villain will also bluff if he doesn't have the ace. Why would Hero bet the turn if he has a full? Slowplaying is more likely considering there's a small chance villain will call the bet (that's the reason coffeeyay will bet a lot of times) with hands like K-high and weaker hands (Most Ace combinations he might rr preflop).

I think you messed up your quote there


No problem, I'm gonna try and be more clear as well.

In regard to the turn decision, this is an awful card to barrel because villain will fold the (considerably smaller) part of his range that we're ahead of (gutshots, random T-J high floats) and he's almost never folding anything that beats us (full houses, A high (people don't always 3bet shove A2-A6 early on) and K high). It doesn't even set us up for a river shove bluff because the strength of his turn calling range really won't be affected by most river cards and our value range gets more and more capped.

On the river, it's simply a bad spot to donkbet bluff because we technically don't have any "air" in our range, but mostly Ax and hands that play the board but might split the pot.

sorry to not be part of the discussion I'm travelling back to Europe today, so I'll post here soon

Basically I think that on the turn we fold out a pretty big chunk of equity share--we fold out a lot of gutshots, overcards, and just random floats. Yeah we have Q high so we have some showdown but folding out the equity of a two pair hand is still profitable. Plus I disagree that we don't fold out Kx or Ax, I think we likely do.

It's a weird spot though, and it's one where my first instinct was to be merged and just bet 100% of range--so this includes betting Ax for thin value. Thinkinga bout it though, it's definitely strange to say we are thin value betting Ax but we think we fold out random floats worse than Qx and even some Kx! I need to think about this hand more while I'm not packing

Deciding whether or not to barrel river is also close. My first instinct is to shutdown turn if we bet.

I disagree Hero doesn't have air in his range. Hero c-bet and then checked the turn so I think he could easily have air. You said before most players will bet the turn with a 9 or 5 so from that point of view I understand your thoughts but I think the opposite is true.

Great discussion and ty for your input sofar, appreciate it.

Thanks, pretty interesting spot, although I feel like we're still talking about different things.

On the river, we never have air because we at least play the board, which beats all of villains bluffs, making this a bad spot for villain to bluff oop.

FWIW, I still think barreling turn with Q high and not barreling with full houses is bad.

i also barrel 100% of my range ott

.

We just disagree about what villain will have most of the time and what Hero can represent. But I understand your thinking. I hope you understand me as well.

Yeah, I think I do.

You think Kx/Ax is c/c this flop and c/f this turn?

thats what he says and thats the reason why he thinks bet/bet/bet is better then bet/check/call river lead.

i disagree on his assumption, dont think ppl fold more then 10% of their Ax and Kx combos on turn. And esp on this river it is likely that they would even call down 3 streets with Kx, cause after barreling turn we are not likely to have a lot of Ax in our range and still we could use it as a scarecard.
given hand, board and also river sizing of villian i play the hand exactly like bernard did.
sometimes i get owned and see Kx here, why i dont like this line against good thinking players that bet Kx for value on river.