No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10.00/t20.00 Blinds - 2 players -

Hero (BTN/SB): t1470.00 73.50 BBs
BB: t1530.00 76.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BTN/SB with K 9
Hero raises to t40, BB calls t20

Flop: (t80) 4 K 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t40.00, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t80

Turn: (t320) J (2 players)
BB bets t160.00, Hero calls t160

River: (t640) J (2 players)
BB bets t1210.00, Hero ???

Could he be shoving his FD here? Even if he could can we call this, he could have like Jxdd and better Kx a lot here, but the question is if he would shove it?

This looks very exploitable to me, if we are folding Kx a lot here, this becames very strong strategy against us. What range are you calling here if you are folding this hand?

Is a decision very player+metagame depend , early on the match i will fold. You only have invested 320 and only beat a bluff.

I dont think he will can exploit me very often because is a marginal spot and when i know he is a aggro player i will call in this situations with my bluffcatchers frecuently.

any sort of reads would be nice

also don't worry about being exploited its very rarely ever happening. if he keeps taking this line there is a lot of stuff you can do, stop 3 betting your big hands on flop and just mash the call button, polarize your c-bet, clicking back the flop etc....

as for this situation he can have alot jizz here but but i suppose its Jxdd alot

i agree with your asumptions, but really there is no point to shove here with Jxdd because i have a lot of draws in my range. But still this is a fold i guess

Doubt he ever has KX here. And lol what does his sizing has to do with you having draws in your range? It's not like he'll be ima bet small so he'll bluff shove T6dd.
I fold,expect him to have trips+.

When my range is really week so there is no point betting so big from his side. But i get your point.

Why flat turn?

On the river we have to call 1150/3000= .38% of the time we need to be right.

Here is where combinatorics, pokerstove, and general assumptions about population tendencies is your friend.

Just to give an idea of how you should approach these situations:

Value hand combos unknowns may do this with: KJ, 4 combos; 22/44 6 combos, discounted AK and KQ due to 3bet pre so we'll say 3 combos, K9 6 combos, we'll give 1 combo of slowplayed AA pre, Jd/QT987653d for 8 combos.

Total Value Combos: 28 hands. Obviously this is just a guess, it will fluctuate depending on villain, but in these situations you have to make some kind of educated guess.

Bluff combos unknowns may do this with: discounted 53, we'll just do the suited combos for 4, frustrated K2 and K4 discounted to 6 combos, discounted A2/A3 combos for 10, and the rest will be a vast, vast amount of diamond combos: Looking in pokerstove, I counted 35 diamond combos, chopping off the ****tiest ones like 92dd or T3dd.

Total Bluff Combos: 55

Total Hand Combos: 83

Assuming villain took the same line with all the aforementioned hands, he beats us here 28/83= 33% of the time. In other words, we are good 67%. According to the pot odds, we need to be good 38%, thus we should call.

However, this is blatantly wrong. We have no reads, no idea what villain is capable of. Against a population tendency, I think randoms are much more weighted to value here. Against the population, we can usually remove most of the bluffs, leaving us with much worse odds to call the river.

This is a long, roundabout way to tell you to do your equity calculations.

Edit: We can definitely add some random air/spazz combos, but I'm tired and you get the idea.

What do you mean? I don't imagine folding this because he is continuing with all his FD here and i really think folding here would be a misstake.

And i do not see any reasons for raising here, he is not calling with anything that we are ahead and if he playes back we are like huge underdogs.

So in my opinion turn is a clear flat, anyone else thinks it is not?

Wow and again wow! I never in my life thought like that i believe this is close to imposible to make such analyse in game, but after it i believe this is very very good way to analyse hands.

Fold, don't expect him to be doing this with much worse ever even though it looks like there are a ton of draw combos that missed. I'd expect him to show up with a jack a lot here.

wtf would he shove k4o/k2o for two times pot on river?And he gives up with bluffs way more often than he overbet shoves them. That's a pretty good assumption for any player.